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# QI Research

Macroeconomic Research with Danielle DiMartino Booth

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## Posts

- [Travel is the Ultimate Consumer Discretionary Guide](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/22/travel-is-the-ultimate-consumer-discretionary-guide/) - QI TAKEAWAY — Travel is the ultimate business cycle caboose. Look no further than hotel rate inflation and Hawaii initial claims and real estate transaction prices. As the credit/bankruptcy cycle continues to displace workers, canceled trips will raise more red flags on this sector that’s turned across a spectrum of metrics, reinforcing the short consumer discretionary
- [Have Guide, Will Travel](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/22/have-guide-will-travel/) - “Peregrinatio in Terram Sanctam” (or Pilgrimage to the Holy Land) is said to be the world’s first travel guide. Written by Bernhard von Breydenbach, and illustrated by Reiwich, it was published in 1486 and electrified Europeans with visions of far-off lands. The pair swiftly became the world’s first travel influencers. Von Breydenbach detailed the pair’s
- [The Weekly Quill — BIG AnecDATA](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/21/the-weekly-quill-big-anecdata/)
- [Housing Permits-Starts Inversion Red Flag Risen](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/21/housing-permits-starts-inversion-red-flag-risen/) - QI TAKEAWAY — The building Permits-Housing Starts inversion points to a top in construction employment. The Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey abruptly clocked contractions across its price and labor metrics, which shed light on why we’ve seen such weakness in Pennsylvania’s job market. While residential real estate upped Q2 GDP estimates within our favored S&P Global model
- [Clothespin, Anyone?](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/21/clothespin-anyone/) - QI’s Dr. Gates has a bone to pick. His home state of New Jersey is not the smelliest in the land. Anyone who’s driven the New Jersey Turnpike south of Newark Liberty Airport and inhaled begs to differ. Nonetheless, zippia.com sets the record straight using four gauges to establish the steepest state stenches in the
- [Plenty of Inflationary Reads to Give the Fed Continued Cover](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/20/plenty-of-inflationary-reads-to-give-the-fed-continued-cover/) - QI TAKEAWAY — Four observations on inflation via June’s University of Michigan consumer survey give Fed officials ample cover to keep the yield curve inverted as they continue to normalize the household inflation picture. In UMich’s June data, Bad News on Higher Prices fell two points to 17% but is still well above the 5% long-run
- [After Having It with a Grain of Salt](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/20/after-having-it-with-a-grain-of-salt/) - Merriam-Webster plays the role of Mr. Obvious, telling us that if we “take it with a grain of salt,” we’ve got a skeptical attitude. The origins of the phrase are unclear, but intriguingly, both are tied to poison. One hypothesis dates back to 77 A.D. Pliny the Elder is believed to have used the phrase
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — One Fewer Brick in the Wall](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/16/saturday-intelligence-briefing-one-fewer-brick-in-the-wall/)
- [The Weekly Quill — One Fewer Brick in the Wall](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/16/the-weekly-quill-one-fewer-brick-in-the-wall/)
- [White Nose](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/16/white-nose/) - Fancy rice bran paste smeared on your schnoz? Ancient Egyptians used it to beat back the scathing sun. At the frozen poles, tiny goggles were carved out of bone, wood, or leather to stave off sun blindness. Similarly frozen Vikings were more fashionable, drawing thick eyeliners from charcoal to protect their eyes from ultraviolet rays.
- [Autos Head Fake Glosses Over Deepening Global Industrial Recession](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/16/autos-head-fake-glosses-over-deepening-global-industrial-recession/) - QI TAKEAWAY —The weakness in export and import prices flags the deepening global recession. Fade consensus views that Emerging Markets are poised to outperform. Per QI friend Philippa Dunne, only 18% of states saw sales tax revenues meet or beat forecasts in May, a steep drop-off from April’s 74%; the 3-month moving average YoY revenue
- [Fade the PPI at Your Peril](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/15/fade-the-ppi-at-your-peril/) - QI TAKEAWAY — Violent moves around the PPI yield four discretely similar themes of disinflation in discretionary services, commercial real estate, wages, and industrial cyclicals. Ignore emerging evidence from sources other than the CPI at your own risk. Luxury hotel rate inflation fell into negative YoY territory in Q1 and has run flat in Q2, while
- [Flip-Flopping in the PPI](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/15/flip-flopping-in-the-ppi/) - In 1500 B.C., the ancient Egyptians invented what we call today the “flip-flop.” As for when it was imported to the United States, this light sandal with a ‘y-shaped’ strap that passes between the first and second toes became popular in the United States as soldiers returning from World War II brought Japanese zōri with
- [Used Vehicle and Diesel Emanating Unequivocal Messages](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/14/used-vehicle-and-diesel-emanating-unequivocal-messages/) - QI TAKEAWAY — Lower inflationary pressures on durable, nondurable and core service prices are increasingly manifest in used vehicles, diesel, airfares, and delivery services. The common denominator of an indirect influence of energy prices on services suggests watching more than just wage inflation to judge the path of supercore inflation. Used vehicle CPI has had a
- [Driving the Bus](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/14/driving-the-bus/) - Got two hours to kill? Speed is the movie for you. The $30-37 million budget flick was a ten-bagger at the box office, grossing $350.4 million and becoming the 5th-highest-grossing film of 1994. Our favorite characterization: It was an empirical teaching aid for high school physics. The plot revolves around a bus rigged by a
- [Auto and Consumer Vulnerabilities](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/13/auto-and-consumer-vulnerabilities/) - QI TAKEAWAY — Used car dealers are the soft spot within the auto complex. Separately, auto loan delinquencies are rising to the greatest extent for the youngest borrowers. This cohort faces the most acute balance sheet stress once student loan payments resume in the fall, which will prove to be sufficiently destabilizing to rattle investors in
- [Taking Cues from Muppets](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/13/taking-cues-from-muppets/) - In 1966, Joan Ganz Cooney hosted “a little dinner party” at her apartment near New York City’s Gramercy Park. In attendance: Her then-husband Tim Cooney, her boss Lewis Freedman, and Lloyd Morrisett, an executive at the Carnegie Corporation. The dinner conversation centered around the potential of television to teach young children. Cooney was tasked to
- [Household Net Worth and Debt Interim Improvement Belie Underlying Weakening](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/12/household-net-worth-and-debt-interim-improvement-belie-underlying-weakening/) - QI TAKEAWAY — The harder the sell side tries to convince the world the U.S. will skirt recession, the more skeptical you should be, especially as they are accompanied by reduced forecasts for oil prices amidst global recession. The rally in stocks no longer has that “feel good” factor for a reason. As a QI colleague,
- [The Daily Feather — Divine Cuckoo-Pint Herbs](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/12/the-daily-feather-divine-cuckoo-pint-herbs/) - “The most pure and white starch is made of the rootes of the Cuckoo-pint, but most hurtful for the hands of the laundresse that have the handling of it, for it chappeth, blistereth, and maketh the hands rough and rugged and withall smarting.” Gerard's Herbal, 1633 It’s lucky the nuns were doing God’s work. Around
- [The Weekly Quill — Wishing We Were in Kansas](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/07/the-weekly-quill-wishing-we-were-in-kansas/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — Wishing We Were in Kansas](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/10/saturday-intelligence-briefing-wishing-we-were-in-kansas/)
- [Industrial and Logistics Recessions Deepen](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/09/industrial-and-logistics-recessions-deepen/) - QI TAKEAWAY — We reiterate our bearish call on the Transportation and Warehouse sectors. Indeed® job postings in Loading & Stocking and Logistics Support are down 25% and 22.4% YTD, respectively; after peaking last January at $583 billion, Wholesales Sales were at $560 billion in April with Machinery Sales down $2 billion from their February high
- [Glamping in the Double Decker Gypsy Van](https://quillintelligence.com/2023/06/09/glamping-in-the-double-decker-gypsy-van/) - Why camp when you can glamp? At least that was the philosophy of Roland and Mary Conklin. Affronted at the idea of a box atop an automobile that slept four in bunks, was lit by incandescent lights, and had the modicum of an icebox and radio, they launched the Gypsy Van. Unlike the original 1904
- [The Weekly Quill  —  The Giving Tree: A Metaphor of the U.S. Labor Market](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/13/the-weekly-quill-the-giving-tree-a-metaphor-of-the-u-s-labor-market/)
- [Disinflationary PPI Takeaways](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/14/disinflationary-ppi-takeaways/) - QUICK QUILL — Disinflationary impulses were unmistakable in July’s PPI report. Falling Transportation costs, Trade Services’ margin squeeze, Real Estate Agents’ cooling commissions, moderation in Staffing costs and elevated Bankruptcy Lawyer billings continue to side with the Doves and intra-week Treasury rally. TAKEAWAYS PPI Transportation/Warehousing fell 1.8% MoM in July and the 5.5-pt swing from April’s
- [Vegas’ First All-You-Can-Eat Buffet Cost One Dollar](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/14/vegas-first-all-you-can-eat-buffet-cost-one-dollar/) - Innovation may be the mother of invention, but sometimes it’s born out of hunger. The Las Vegas buffet was the brainchild of Herb McDonald, entertainment manager and publicist of the El Rancho Vegas, the first resort hotel on what would grow up to be the Las Vegas Strip. Late one night in 1946, after the kitchen
- [Doves Are Winning August Thus Far](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/13/doves-are-winning-august-thus-far/) - QUICK QUILL — Defying the Fed hawks, the CPI report on the screws revealed underlying core pressures easing. Energy and food price relief also was manifest in July. But purchasing power losses have yet to be fully restored. The inflation news combined with the disappointing jobs numbers have the Doves winning this month, gradually pricing out
- [Doves Have Upper Hand](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/13/doves-have-upper-hand/) - In 1907, brothers George and John Dovey bought the National League franchise then known as the Boston Beaneaters. Overnight, sportswriters and fans began calling the team the “Doves,” a play on the owners' last name. In the four seasons ended 1910, the name stuck, but proved a bleak stretch on the field with the team
- [NFIB Reinforces Fed Vigilance and Slower Growth Themes](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/12/nfib-reinforces-fed-vigilance-and-slower-growth-themes/) - QUICK QUILL — July’s NFIB small business report celebrated the reduced geopolitical pessimism manifest in July’s lower average oil prices in the unleashing of pent-up optimism. And while small businesses’ inflation anxiety eased modestly, it remains too high even as labor quality/qualifying issues impede future growth. These factors combine to underpin our Fed vigilance, misguided as
- [The Daily Feather — Nodding Donkeys on Main Street](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/12/the-daily-feather-nodding-donkeys-on-main-street/) - Husband: “Uh, Honey, there’s a nodding donkey in our backyard?” Wife: “No, silly, that’s just a pumpjack.” The preceding dramatization is real. In places like Los Angeles, California, urban oil extraction has meant that thousands of residents share their backyards or neighborhood streets with active 20-to-30-foot pumpjacks, often nicknamed “nodding donkeys.” Urban Los Angeles sits
- [Homebuilder Stocks Remain Pressured Amid the Ongoing Existing Home Sales Slump](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/11/homebuilder-stocks-remain-pressured-amid-the-ongoing-existing-home-sales-slump/) - QUICK QUILL — The slump in Existing Home Sales should persist in July’s official data today. Redfin’s pending home sales guide to an entrenchment into summer. The grind lower in moving expectations is a function of the Fed’s Higher for Longer stance, with mortgage rates remaining above 6% and heading toward 7%. The confluence of tighter
- [I’ve Fallen and I Can’t Get Up](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/11/ive-fallen-and-i-cant-get-up/) - Some don’t become famous until much later in life. In 1989, retired school nurse Edith Fore, 74, walked onto a commercial set for a quick acting gig, totally unaware she was about to make pop culture history. Hired by LifeCall to play “Mrs. Fletcher,” Edith delivered her line, “I’ve fallen, and I can’t get up!”
- [Labor Market Data Increasingly Whittling Away at the Hawks’ Defenses](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/10/labor-market-data-increasingly-whittling-away-at-the-hawks-defenses/) - QUICK QUILL — Three months of the last 12 NFP prints have featured a minus sign, flirting with the four that’s accompanied every recession since 1980. The half-century low in the participation rate, combined with the abrupt slide into negativity for private aggregate hours worked is a red flag for GDP growth which has already fallen
- [The 23 Enigma](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/10/the-23-enigma/) - “I first heard of the 23 enigma from William S. Burroughs…According to Burroughs, he had known a certain Captain Clark, around 1960 in Tangier, who once bragged that he had been sailing 23 years without an accident. That very day, Clark’s ship had an accident that killed him and everybody else aboard. Furthermore, while Burroughs
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing 8.8.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/08/saturday-intelligence-briefing-8-8-26/)
- [Holding The Line on Labor Costs Is Inherently Disinflationary](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/07/holding-the-line-on-labor-costs-is-inherently-disinflationary/) - QUICK QUILL — Echoes of downward NFP revisions and a rollover in the restock narrative were gleaned from yesterday’s economic calendar. The disconnect between below-normal job cuts and above-normal employment fears suggests households are picking up on a broader subject: businesses holding the line on labor costs. This theme was supremely evident in the Productivity and
- [Echo Locations](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/07/echo-locations/) - Summer vibes are about unplugging, or for some, just “echo locations.” Three cool stops come to mind. Abiquiu, New Mexico’s Echo Amphitheater in Carson National Forest was hollowed out by water over thousands of years. For the full acoustic experience, stand at the designated observation platform and shout. The curved, sheer rock wall bounces sound
- [The Weekly Quill — Will America Keep Truckin’?](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/06/the-weekly-quill-will-america-keep-truckin/)
- [Downside Risk to NFP to Be Cast Aside by Fed Hawks’ Focus on Service Sector Undersupply](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/06/downside-risk-to-nfp-to-be-cast-aside-by-fed-hawks-focus-on-service-sector-undersupply/) - QUICK QUILL — The consensus is priced too optimistically for tomorrow’s Private NFP, if ADP and Paychex have a say. A deeper dive into the JOLTS Hires-Separations spread ups conviction for a negative sign for the two-month NFP revision. Fundamentally, a service sector margin squeeze, according to S&P Global, reinforces the grind down – and contractionary
- [For Your Eyes Only](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/06/for-your-eyes-only/) - First introduced in 1958, Visine’s core active ingredient is tetrahydrozoline hydrochloride, a vasoconstrictor patented in 1954 that shrinks swollen blood vessels in the eye to reduce redness. Created and headed up by the advertising agency The William Esty Company, its “Gets the Red Out” campaign was so brilliantly catchy and recognizable. Its iconic slogan splashed
- [Wage Disinflation and Imputed Downward Payroll Revisions Take the ‘Under’ on Friday’s Hourly Earnings and NFP](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/05/wage-disinflation-and-imputed-downward-payroll-revisions-take-the-under-on-fridays-hourly-earnings-and-nfp/) - QUICK QUILL — The latest JOLTS report yielded another vote for wage disinflation from the quits trend and an ongoing cautious labor demand picture. Service industries are in the crosshairs for underperformance, and the July NACM Credit Managers’ Index indicated tighter service sector credit conditions that could be acting as an impediment to adding headcount. This
- [Celebrating Labor Liberty](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/05/celebrating-labor-liberty/) - “Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” Excerpt from The New Colossus, November 2, 1883 Today, we commemorate August 5, 1884, the day the Statue of Liberty’s
- [Disinflationary Ruminations After Completing a Global Round Trip](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/04/disinflationary-ruminations-after-completing-a-global-round-trip/) - QUICK QUILL — Fundamental channel checks from across the globe pointed to 1) South Korea’s manufacturing fundamentals defying the KOSPI’s rally; 2) U.S.’s ISM supply-demand guidance flagging an unsustainability in Production; 3) China cutting purchasing and exporting less inflation is bearish for global trade flows; 4) Germany’s income expectations and higher unemployment expectations validate retail volume
- [That’s A Lot of Bull](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/04/thats-a-lot-of-bull/) - Val di Chiana stretches across southern Tuscany and northern Umbria, renowned for its gently rolling hills, vineyards and historic hilltop towns such as Cortona and Montepulciano. Once a marshland reclaimed through centuries of engineering, it is Italy’s agricultural heartland producing world-class wines, olive oil and iconic Chianina cattle. For more than two millennia, the Chianina
- [Rising Benefits and Falling Wages to Further Impair Purchasing Power](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/03/rising-benefits-and-falling-wages-to-further-impair-purchasing-power/) - QUICK QUILL — U.S. households are miserable, as in the Misery Index, at least in their estimation, is soaring. Standing as proof are real wages falling 0.3% YoY, the biggest drop (excluding the pandemic) in 14 years. At the same time, UMich Bad News Heard on Prices is at levels only otherwise seen in the lead-up
- [Piletti, Not McFly](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/03/piletti-not-mcfly/) - “You don’t like her. My mother don’t like her. She’s a dog. And I’m a fat, ugly man. Well, all I know is I had a good time last night!” The “Palme d’Or” (Golden Palm) from the Cannes Film Festival is the most prestigious award that a filmmaker can win. Inspired by the palm
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 8.1.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/08/01/saturday-intelligence-briefing-8-1-26/)
- [Inflation/Growth Narrative Twist Needed to Reverse Twist Steepening](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/31/inflation-growth-narrative-twist-needed-to-reverse-twist-steepening/) - QUICK QUILL — Core PCE inflation’s downside surprise twist steepened the U.S. yield curve for a second day. Even Hypercore inflation registered a marginal decline, piling on inflation relief. Despite the “good” news, Core and Hypercore inflation are still too high for comfort and second quarter growth was a non-AI private demand story (GOOOOOAL!!). Inflation vigilance
- [Infinite Gaps Don’t Apply](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/31/infinite-gaps-dont-apply/) - The density of real numbers is a fundamental property of mathematics: Between any two real numbers, there are infinitely many numbers. Take 0.1 and 0.2, for instance, that look to be kissing cousins. Mathematicians break down the infinite space using a proof of density, otherwise known as the midpoint trick, which simply entails taking the
- [The Weekly Quill — Warsh's Sirens](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/30/the-weekly-quill-warshs-sirens/)
- [South Carolina Could Become the Epicenter of U.S. Labor Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/30/south-carolina-could-become-the-epicenter-of-u-s-labor-risks/) - QUICK QUILL — Despite three hawkish dissents, the Fed held off raising rates and changed its policy statement by one whole word. The nearly empty economic calendar stateside turned our attention to Austria’s Manufacturing PMI and BMW’s 8,000 voluntary severance announcement given their implications for the broader global economy. Austria’s PMI showed pressures on BMW’s stock
- [Beamer, Beemer, Bimmer](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/30/beamer-beemer-bimmer/) - BMW’s nickname “Beamer” (or “Beemer”) traces back to British motorcycle racing in the early 20th century. In 1910, the U.K.-based Birmingham Small Arms Company, or BSA, began selling its own brand of motorcycles. Rather than constantly wrap their mouths around the term BSA bikes, racing enthusiasts agreed to shorten BSA to “Beezers.” In the early
- [To Hike or Not to Hike? U.S. Households Wouldn’t Be Surprised Either Way](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/29/to-hike-or-not-to-hike-u-s-households-wouldnt-be-surprised-either-way/) - QUICK QUILL — The Fed has green-lit past rate hikes when households’ higher rate expectations stood at 60% or above as is the case today. The caveat is the worsening Conference Board Labor Differential as it flags higher unemployment risks yet to be reported. But Dallas and Richmond Fed Service surveys both pointed to above-target inflation
- [102 Dalmatians and an Oddball](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/29/102-dalmatians-and-an-oddball/) - In 2000, Disney greenlit its second live-action canine adventure, 102 Dalmatians, the sequel to 1996’s 101 Dalmatians. Glenn Close reprised her iconic role as the maniacal Cruella de Vil, only this time, she was mentally rehabilitated into a fur-hating, dog-loving member of society. Her parole officer, Chloe, remained deeply suspicious of the black- and white-haired
- [AI Boom Driving Wider Credit Spreads](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/28/ai-boom-driving-wider-credit-spreads/) - QUICK QUILL — Semiconductor pricing is generating significant upward pressure, pushing capex inflation risks higher. And demand, according to the latest Durable Goods report, especially from the big hyperscalers, has produced a record streak for tech shipments. The asset-heavy investment (i.e., data centers) means more elevated credit quality risks for the biggest players. Increased leverage needed
- [Aspect Ratios and Credit Quality](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/28/aspect-ratios-and-credit-quality/) - The Odyssey didn’t break any records for opening weekend box office gross, hauling in a mere $123,502,900. But for movies with an ‘R’-rating, it came in at No. 4, trailing No. 3’s Deadpool 2, No. 2’s Deadpool and No. 1’s Deadpool & Wolverine (thank you, Ryan Reynolds). The less fair sex knows that it’s best
- [Housing Remains a Thorn in the Fed’s Side](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/27/housing-remains-a-thorn-in-the-feds-side/) - QUICK QUILL — Still choking on the Fed’s Higher for Longer stance, there is no healing taking place in the U.S. housing market. Builders are hanging on for dear life, battling a depleted pool of qualified home buyers. They’re wisely sitting on record levels of spec homes not started, a.k.a. plots of land. Bankruptcies in the
- [Leave Housing to Heaven](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/27/leave-housing-to-heaven/) - The biggest surprise in Hollywood this year has been the smash success of the horror film Obsession. It’s raked in $450 million at the box office on a meager $750,000 budget, with a simple yet intriguing premise: a man wishes that his crush would “love him more than anyone in the entire world,” only to
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 7.25.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/25/saturday-intelligence-briefing-7-25-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Insuring the Life Insurers](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/24/the-weekly-quill-insuring-the-life-insurers/)
- [Initial Claims at 1969 Lows and Consumer Product Sales Pressures Inherently Conflict](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/24/initial-claims-at-1969-lows-and-consumer-product-sales-pressures-inherently-conflict/) - QUICK QUILL — Initial claims are back at 1969 lows, and “file unemployment” Google search interest abruptly agrees with the jobless benefit trend. The thing is there’s a glaring disconnect between claims and volume sales declines from consumer product companies. Structurally, higher unemployment insurance denial rates bridge some of the gap between the disconnect, suggesting the
- [Reflex Thursday](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/24/reflex-thursday/) - Here’s Ben Stein in his best monotone explaining how reflexes work: “Polysynaptic spinal reflex arcs and brainstem-mediated neural pathways execute rapid involuntary motor responses that bypass cerebral interpretation to protect peripheral tissue from acute trauma….” We’ve all done it. You accidentally brush your arm against a scorching pan, and before your brain even registers pain,
- [Architects and State-Level Employment Suggest Construction Payrolls Are Overstated](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/23/architects-and-state-level-employment-suggest-construction-payrolls-are-overstated/) - QUICK QUILL — The ongoing slump in the Architecture Billings Index should extend the downturn in real nonresidential structures investment. The more volatile (and nominal) Dodge Construction index’s above-trend streak adds technical overvaluation and downside to the construction outlook. Most importantly, the divergence between rising U.S. construction payrolls on one hand and weakening state construction employment
- [Of Baseball and Architecture Slumps](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/23/of-baseball-and-architecture-slumps/) - “Dave Campbell had a hitless streak in 1973 that spanned 45 at-bats. Although the entirety of the streak occurred in one season, his struggles remained with three different franchises. Campbell started the hitless streak on May 18 when he was with the Padres. He didn’t record a hit until September 18, four months and two
- [Oil Driving Treasury Yields Again, Other Factors Suggest Renting the Sell Off](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/22/oil-driving-treasury-yields-again-other-factors-suggest-renting-the-sell-off/) - QUICK QUILL — Rising oil prices have taken the reins of Treasury yields again. Rates traders are not cueing off a rollover in job-finding confidence and the up channel in WARN notices. More specifically, the Leisure and Hospitality sector is showing decided job posting underperformance, while World Cup states are likely to reverse industry job gains
- [World Cup Was No Operation Mincemeat](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/22/world-cup-was-no-operation-mincemeat/) - Few operations are as renowned as Operation Mincemeat. Conceived by British Intelligence to fool the Germans about the target for the Allied invasion, the Imperial War Museum consigned a corpse to serve his country. On April 30, 1943, wearing the uniform of a Royal Marines’ Major with the false identity of William Martin, he was
- [A More Hawkish ECB Flags Euro Area Service Sector Underperformance](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/21/a-more-hawkish-ecb-flags-euro-area-service-sector-underperformance/) - QUICK QUILL — G7 nations’ headline inflation rolled over in June, but the ramp-up in hostilities in the Middle East suggesting the relief could be temporary. Core inflation, meanwhile, exhibited a lack of pass-through in the U.S., Canada and Germany. With rising oil pricing hitting consumer and business purchasing power anew, underlying inflation should remain under
- [Inflation Headache Remedies](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/21/inflation-headache-remedies/) - According to The Old Farmer’s Almanac, U.S. regional traditions have birthed many unconventional headache home remedies. Take Pennsylvania Dutch Powwowing. To cure a headache, a person sits facing East with a Bible on their lap and right hand resting on it. They then recite a trinitarian charm three times: “This water and this fire, this
- [Import Prices the Last Standing Impediment to Broader Goods Disinflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/20/import-prices-the-last-standing-impediment-to-broader-goods-disinflation/) - QUICK QUILL — After a week of downside in inflation gauges, Consumer Goods Import Prices ex-Autos rose 1.7% YoY, a level only seen in the early 2010s recovery and the pandemic reopening. The nascent peak and turn in ocean freight rates will either validate exhausted restocking or import prices will remain elevated. Absent a reversal in
- [Cock-a-Doodle-Doo!](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/20/cock-a-doodle-doo/) - A vacation to Hawaii is guaranteed to have crystal blue waters, palm trees blowing in the wind, and pina coladas on tap. However, if you’re headed to Kauai, the oldest, wettest, and westernmost of the main islands, you’ll also be surrounded by chickens everywhereyou turn. Centuries ago, they were first brought in by Polynesian explorers
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 7.18.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/18/saturday-intelligence-briefing-7-18-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — A Regulatory Run with No End — Too Big to Fail Becomes Endemic](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/16/the-weekly-quill-a-regulatory-run-with-no-end-too-big-to-fail-becomes-endemic/)
- [Food for Thought](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/17/food-for-thought/) - And many a time beside their leafy bower The father sat, and heard, in silent joy, The youthful pair, in that most happy hour With harmless sports their leisure-time employ: A lively tale, and fraught, with all the power Of fancy, was to them, without alloy, With matter of delight and food for thought, And
- [Fed Food for Thought: Data Adding to Rate Rally Conviction](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/17/fed-food-for-thought-data-adding-to-rate-rally-conviction/) - QUICK QUILL — In a sign of stress, consumers are buying less food. Home builder pessimism and waning wage pressures also point to disinflation as do the Philly Fed future cost and price metrics. All told, this adds to the run of data that should price out future hikes. Though sure to be lost on Fed
- [The Beginning of the Turn in Transportation Costs Has Begun](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/16/the-beginning-of-the-turn-in-transportation-costs-has-begun/) - QUICK QUILL — PPI’s downside surprise added to the CPI’s and sustained this week’s rate rally/bull steepening momentum. Empire Manufacturing and Truckstop.com showed current capacity pressures and future cost and price pressures have passed their peak, but still have a way to go before signaling real relief. The Margin Squeeze narrative was clear in the PPI’s
- [From Collar City to Margin Squeeze](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/16/from-collar-city-to-margin-squeeze/) - Triumph of Excellence Wilbur’s Double Wear Trademark Points 2½ in. Highest Possible Grade 25 cents Quo Vadis Two Lives In One. No Wrong Side. The Best Dealers Can Supply You. If They Will Not. We Will. Wilbur Shirt & Collar Co, Troy, N.Y. So read the advertisement for detachable collars that revolutionized men’s fashion in
- [Small Business Margin Squeeze Battle Signals the Fed’s Job is Not Done](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/15/small-business-margin-squeeze-battle-signals-the-feds-job-is-not-done/) - QUICK QUILL — Core CPI relief bull steepened the Treasury curve collapsing month-end hike expectations to 12% from Monday’s Waller-induced 43%. Small businesses suggest the Warsh Fed’s job is not done as higher prices, inflation worries and low left-tail sales concerns green light the price stability fight. Still, margin squeeze remains on full display, with small
- [Inflation Eclipse Glasses](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/15/inflation-eclipse-glasses/) - The next total solar eclipse lands on August 12, 2026. If these heavenly events are de rigueur in your world, pack your bags for Greenland, Iceland and Northern Spain where you can be in the path of totality. But don’t forget the most important item: eclipse glasses. Thousand Oaks Optical, an Arizona-based manufacturer, has been
- [Core Key to Treasury Market CPI Reaction](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/14/core-key-to-treasury-market-cpi-reaction/) - QUICK QUILL — June headline CPI relief is widely anticipated. Core CPI is more complicated, with upside risks to core goods and downside risks to core services. At 0.2%, June’s Core CPI consensus assumes no change from May; it doesn’t take sides on pass-through versus margin squeeze. Should core come in above 0.2%, the pass-through narrative
- [An Inflation Toast to Two French Revolutions](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/14/an-inflation-toast-to-two-french-revolutions/) - Commemorating the 1789 Storming of the Bastille, which launched the French Revolution, Bastille Day is celebrated every July 14th, and is, (bien sur!) a French national holiday. An encore of a different sort arrived in 1880, when Louis-Alexandre Marnier-Lapostolle paired exotic bitter oranges and refined French cognac. At the time, Caribbean oranges, Citrus bigaradia, were
- [Residential Distress Piles onto Consumer Discretionary Sector](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/13/residential-distress-piles-onto-consumer-discretionary-sector/) - QUICK QUILL — Residential real estate lending standards are tightening which will compound the downside momentum in existing home sales. Cycle low prints on Conference Board Vacation Intentions on par with GFC lows hammer home the downside to consumer discretionary. TAKEAWAYS In the Dallas Fed’s Banking Conditions Survey, residential real estate credit standards fell from a
- [Sticking Around](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/13/sticking-around/) - “People say that I am so controversial, but I think the most controversial thing that I have ever done is stick around.” One of the world’s few people who need no last name, Madonna made this remark when accepting Billboard’s “Woman of the Year” Award in 2016. And yet, her decades-long career has been
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 7.11.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/11/saturday-intelligence-briefing-7-11-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Are Earnings Strictly Business?](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/10/the-weekly-quill-are-earnings-strictly-business/)
- [If Jobless Claims’ “Rally” Continues, Bear Flattening Commences](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/10/if-jobless-claims-rally-continues-bear-flattening-commences/) - QUICK QUILL — Elevated big data on the jobless picture has disconnected with that of raw continuing claims. Rising ranks of long-term unemployed not covered by unemployment insurance against a lower exhaustion rate help explain the difference. LinkUp’s Jobs Created-Removed spread argues that employment could disappoint in early August. Ahead of that report, a drop in
- [Want to Disconnect? Try Mystery Island?](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/10/want-to-disconnect-try-mystery-island/) - If it’s a remote paradise you seek, Mystery Island should be on the list. Located at the southernmost tip of the Vanuatu archipelago in the South Pacific Ocean, Mystery has no permanent residents, electricity, running water, hotels or infrastructure. Why go? Perhaps because it’s surrounded by a perfectly protected, crystal-clear marine sanctuary teeming with coral
- [Railroad Stocks are a Momentum Play](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/09/railroad-stocks-are-a-momentum-play/) - QUICK QUILL — Fed Minutes showed that a small minority considered a June rate hike. The mortgage rejection rate continues to check hopes of a move in purchase application volumes, which are at best, flat on the year. Reports on wholesale trade from logistics managers both reinforced inflation risk and a hawkish rates stance. Against this
- [Unfriending Has a Long History](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/09/unfriending-has-a-long-history/) - Unfriend (verb): To remove someone as a ‘friend’ on a social networking site such as Facebook. The word became so prominent after its social media adaptation that Oxford University Press named “unfriend” its 2009 Word of the Year. Christine Lindberg, Senior Lexicographer for Oxford’s U.S. dictionary program explained: “It has both currency and potential longevity.
- [Stay Hawkish the Fed Despite Disinflationary Labor and Housing](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/08/stay-hawkish-the-fed-despite-disinflationary-labor-and-housing/) - QUICK QUILL — Private job growth is moderating (but not slowing too fast), short- and medium-run inflation expectations are de-anchoring, and consumer sentiment is rallying. Standing in stark contradiction, job leaving expectations, job finding expectations and moving expectations are depressed. But the Fed will stay focused on its price stability goal, especially since lower-income households and
- [A Military Installation for the Birds](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/08/a-military-installation-for-the-birds/) - Hawk Hill stands 923 feet above the entry to the Golden Gate in the Marin Headlands and offers unobstructed views of San Francisco and the surrounding area. According to nps.gov, “Hawk Hill’s location was of great interest to the United States Army during the Second World War. In 1942, army engineers began constructing a coast
- [It Don’t Worry Me](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/06/it-dont-worry-me/) - “The price of bread may worry some But it don’t worry me Tax relief may never come But it don’t worry me Economy’s depressed, not me My spirit’s high as it can be And you may say that I ain’t free But it don’t worry me” In 1975, the Robert Altman film Nashville was
- [Margin Squeeze Reinforced in Distribution Channel](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/07/margin-squeeze-reinforced-in-distribution-channel/) - QUICK QUILL — U.S. Services surveys highlighted above-normal costs and pricing pressures and the restock narrative fading fast. But undersupply conditions should underpin pricing. The ‘low hire, low fire’ labor environment was also on display. When combined with cost, price and supply, the margin squeeze on the distribution channel is reinforced. TAKEAWAYS ISM Services Prices Paid
- […All the Way to Tacoma](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/07/all-the-way-to-tacoma/) - As we bid adieu to America’s Semiquincentennial, there’s one last Bicentennial redux on the top of our playlist. On May 15, 1976, the Steve Miller Band released its ninth studio album, Fly Like an Eagle. It spawned a string of hits that went to No. 11 (“Take the Money and Run”), No. 2 (“Fly Like
- [Recessionary Labor Market Flows Won’t Compel the Fed to Ease Until Financial Conditions Tighten](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/06/recessionary-labor-market-flows-wont-compel-the-fed-to-ease-until-financial-conditions-tighten/) - QUICK QUILL — After a brief spring surge, labor market flows have taken a decided recessionary turn. The boomerang in Leisure & Hospitality is especially foreboding when combined with falling U.S. hotel occupancy. There are few catalysts that suggest a turnaround in discretionary services spending, which will collide head-on with stubborn shelter and wage disinflation. Traders
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing 7.4.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/04/saturday-intelligence-briefing-7-4-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — The Glass Delusion — The State of U.S. Household Balance Sheets](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/25/the-weekly-quill-the-glass-delusion-the-state-of-u-s-household-balance-sheets/)
- [The Weekly Quill — We Picked the Right Week…](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/02/the-weekly-quill-we-picked-the-right-week/)
- [Revelio’s NFP Bull Case Would Be a Volatility Event](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/02/revelios-nfp-bull-case-would-be-a-volatility-event/) - QUICK QUILL — Wednesday’s economic reports took sides for today’s U.S. Employment report. ADP, Challenger and ISM/S&P Global manned the downside risk camp, while Revelio occupied the upside. Since U.S. yields barely budged across the curve in Wednesday’s trading, if Revelio is right, higher yields and higher rate volatility would take hold. If the other reports’
- [NFP’s Yin and Yang](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/02/nfps-yin-and-yang/) - Everywhere we look at the basics of financial market structure, its roots mimic the foundational concept in Chinese philosophy of Yin and Yang. Cautious Bears (Yin) and optimistic Bulls (Yang) describe the duality of rival forces that balance investment viewpoints at any given time. Every financial market transaction requires two opposing positions to occur simultaneously.
- [Peace Rally Overdone in Consumer Discretionary and Hotels](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/01/peace-rally-overdone-in-consumer-discretionary-and-hotels/) - QUICK QUILL — Conference Board’s bearish labor guidance and JOLTS sizable, implied May downward NFP revision run counter to consensus and whisper nonfarm payroll numbers’ relative strength. The Jobs Hard to Get index hitting a five-year high also sides with the bears and points to an unemployment rate upside surprise. June’s vacation intentions downside break to
- [Halfway There, Livin’ on a Prayer](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/07/01/halfway-there-livin-on-a-prayer/) - Whoa, we're halfway there Whoa oh, livin' on a prayer Take my hand, we'll make it, I swear Whoa oh, livin' on a prayer Bon Jovi’s signature song and second number one 1986 smash, “Livin’ On A Prayer,” is a musical descendant of the 1979 Kiss hit “I Was Made For Lovin’ You.” Now a
- [Factory Cooling Reiterates Profit-Taking Conviction on Long Cyclicals](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/30/factory-cooling-reiterates-profit-taking-conviction-on-long-cyclicals/) - QUICK QUILL — Multiple manufacturing metrics support a ratcheting back in manufacturing activity. We reiterate last Friday’s profit-taking call on long cyclicals. TAKEAWAYS While the average of regional Fed Future Materials Inventories is a 1.2 z-score, a 2026 high, Future Finished Goods Inventories equate to a below-trend -0.2; meanwhile, Dallas Fed Current Production has sunk 14.9
- [Ordem e Progresso](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/30/ordem-e-progresso/) - Green and yellow flags waved proudly yesterday after Brazil defeated Japan 2-1 in the 2026 World Cup knockout round. The victory marked the 11th time in the last 40 years that Brazil advanced to the Round of 16. After reaching this stage in 1986, Brazil defeated Poland, the U.S., Belgium, Ghana, Mexico, South Korea and
- [Warsh’s NFP Skepticism Validated by Sum of States’ Data](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/29/warshs-nfp-skepticism-validated-by-sum-of-states-data/) - QUICK QUILL — Nonfarm payrolls continue to validate Warsh’s skepticism including in their aggregate form via sum of states. It can’t help that the household survey’s equivalent state tally – which captures employed people as opposed to jobs (as in multiple jobs held by one person) – is at recessionary levels. UMich cycle low expectations for
- [Rock Bottom](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/29/rock-bottom/) - “While greatly appreciating the compliment paid them by the guests swarming in upon them, for a moment the heart of Dr. Jacob Goldman, master of ceremonies, sank to rock bottom, when he bethought of the fine lunch that would afford abundance for the expected 200, but would be somewhat skimpy to put it mildly, for
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 6.27.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/27/saturday-intelligence-briefing-6-27-26/)
- [Take Profits on Long Cyclicals as Peak Manufacturing Nears Amidst Below-Normal Spending and Income](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/26/take-profits-on-long-cyclicals-as-peak-manufacturing-nears-amidst-below-normal-spending-and-income/) - QUICK QUILL — Above-trend core inflation is intersecting with below-trend core spending and persistent contraction in organic personal income, reinforcing the notion that the inflation is not demand-driven. Below-normal non-manufacturing activity and hiring plans in the Chicago Fed District stand as corroboration. Meanwhile, surging manufacturing activity in Chicago and Kansas City Districts suggests the restock narrative
- [Five-Fold Repetition](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/26/five-fold-repetition/) - “We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering. You ask, what is our policy? I can say: It is to wage war, by sea, land and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can
- [New Home Disinflation Not Enough to Quell Fed Tightening Expectations](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/25/new-home-disinflation-not-enough-to-quell-fed-tightening-expectations/) - QUICK QUILL — Architects’ and home builders’ shared pessimism is concurrent against recessionary levels for new home months’ supply. This should keep home sales promotional and pressure on builders’ profit margins. New home disinflation contrasts with accelerated expectations for today’s Headline and Core PCE inflation. This should bolster rates traders’ tightening expectations against the persistent housing
- [Back to the Old Drawing Board](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/25/back-to-the-old-drawing-board/) - The New Yorker is world-renowned for its iconic single-panel cartoons. Since its 1925 founding, its sketches have proffered a satirical, sophisticated and often surreal look at modern life. Caricatures define the magazine’s identity; readers eagerly anticipate their witty, timeless humor. The March 1, 1941, issue featured a caption phrase that was thrust into the English
- [S&P Global Shows Price Instability Colliding with Maximum Employment Failure](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/24/sp-global-shows-price-instability-colliding-with-maximum-employment-failure/) - QUICK QUILL — S&P Global and Richmond Fed surveys revealed elevated price pressures inconsistent with price stability. The temporary boost to manufacturing activity continues to be buoyed by precautionary inventory building with an expiration date. Combine this with the sub-50 readings from S&P Global’s Manufacturing and Services Employment figures and it counters the lack of “Price
- [Can Amazon Deliver Price Stability?](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/24/can-amazon-deliver-price-stability/) - Happy Amazon Prime Day! Or should we say days? Amazon’s annual summer shopping event runs four days, from June 23rd to June 26th this year. When Amazon launched its inaugural Prime Day on July 15, 2015, it was pitched as a 20th anniversary company celebration. But the biggest goal of Prime Day wasn’t necessarily to
- [Utilities Benefit at Consumers’ Expense](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/23/utilities-benefit-at-consumers-expense/) - QUICK QUILL — Rising confidence from the cyclically sensitive equipment finance industry points to an upside surprise for today’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. Construction starts across non-residential properties surged in May, helped by gains in infrastructure, especially electric utilities. More power facilities can’t arrive soon enough for consumers faced with higher summer – and spring –
- [Climbing the Energy Ladder](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/23/climbing-the-energy-ladder/) - Founded in 1922 as a small metal-processing shop by R.D. Werner, his big break arrived in the aftermath of World War II. Pioneering the use of extruded aluminum to manufacture ladders revolutionized an industry that previously relied on heavy, splinter-prone wood. By shifting toward modern materials, Werner Co. steadily climbed – pun intended – to
- [Record High Spread Between Inventory Holding Costs and Levels Pose Risk to Cyclicals](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/22/record-high-spread-between-inventory-holding-costs-and-levels-pose-risk-to-cyclicals/) - QUICK QUILL — The Philly Fed flagged a continuation in high input costs that has factory players in the Chemicals hub keen to pass through higher prices. The red flag raised, however, is that historical spikes of today’s magnitude have been followed by nasty bouts of payback. Indeed, a margin squeeze proxy has sunk so deep
- [Russian Sleeper Agents](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/22/russian-sleeper-agents/) - Before their current starring roles on Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay and Netflix’s The Diplomat, real-life spouses Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell played a married couple on FX’s The Americans. (In our estimation, one of the all-time great modern TV shows that remains criminally underrated). The Americans is set in the D.C. suburbs in the 1980s,
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 6.20.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/20/saturday-intelligence-briefing-6-20-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — The Terse Transcript — Warsh Dreams of Regime Change](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/19/the-weekly-quill-the-terse-transcript-warsh-dreams-of-regime-change/)
- [Housing Caution Remains Warranted Upping Our Curve Inversion Conviction](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/18/housing-caution-remains-warranted-upping-our-curve-inversion-conviction/) - QUICK QUILL — The Fed-tightening narrative gained traction after Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting, upping our conviction for a curve inversion. Retail sales beating expectations supported the hawks. After adjusting for inflation, though, sales have yet to recoup their losses since the outbreak of war with Iran. Home-Related Goods Sales and Pending Home Sales showed tentative
- [Warsh: Less is More](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/18/warsh-less-is-more/) - “The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking
- [If Fed Tightening Narrative Builds, Expect Curve Inversion](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/17/if-fed-tightening-narrative-builds-expect-curve-inversion/) - QUICK QUILL — ADP’s weekly employment report and the New York Fed’s Current Employment index both tilt in the hawks’ direction. Cost pressures and challenged Current Business Activity, however, have us questioning the Second District’s alleged labor strength. Rate hike creep likely won’t end with a U.S./Iran deal signing because trucking market tightness is far from
- [Earthquakes, Firebreaks and Pancakes](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/17/earthquakes-firebreaks-and-pancakes/) - The April 18, 1906, San Francisco Earthquake created a most unfortunate combination. Damage to gas and water mains meant the absence of water to fight gas fires. An alternative strategy employed is described by nps.gov: “By the evening of April 19, the army began preparations to create the firebreak at an east-west division of the
- [Restrictive Price Expectations Question the Fed’s Wait-and-See Stance](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/16/restrictive-price-expectations-question-the-feds-wait-and-see-stance/) - QUICK QUILL — June’s Empire Manufacturing report had two takeaways: 1) Inventory restock and demand pull-ahead fading and 2) Cost pass-through to factory gate prices rising. While Fed doves may take solace from slower growth rumblings, higher inflation expectations will embolden the hawks going into tomorrow’s policy decision. The Fed’s ‘Higher for Longer’ policy continues to
- [Industrial Supply Chain’s Multi-Layered Tracks](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/16/industrial-supply-chains-multi-layered-tracks/) - In the early 1950s, guitarist Les Paul revolutionized music by chasing a singular obsession: “I wanted to create music that was so different that my mother could tell me from anyone else.” From his garage studio, Paul pioneered a method called “sound-on-sound,” manually layering up to 37 parts by recording a live track over an
- [Why Are ATH Stock Prices Failing to Boost Sentiment Among the Highest Earners?](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/15/why-are-ath-stock-prices-failing-to-boost-sentiment-among-the-highest-earners/) - QUICK QUILL — Perceptions of job safety are at cycle lows which take out the Great Recession’s record lows. Still, the Street celebrated yet another imminent and permanent ceasefire deal Friday as well as June’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey via UMich. While relief at the gas pump fostered a rise off cycle lows for the lowest
- [No GOOOOLs for India](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/15/no-gooools-for-india/) - Forty-eight teams have descended upon North America with the goal of becoming World Cup Champions. While four-time winner Italy is nowhere to be seen, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Cape Verde, and Curacao are all appearing for the first time. The last of these, Curacao, has a population of less than 200,000, making it the smallest nation to
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 6.13.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/13/saturday-intelligence-briefing-6-13-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Where Have You Gone, NBER?](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/11/the-weekly-quill-where-have-you-gone-nber/)
- [Global Risk-Free Rate Rally Conviction](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/12/global-risk-free-rate-rally-conviction/) - QUICK QUILL — The May PPI broadcast a margin squeeze on the U.S. distribution channel. Wholesalers and retailers have seen a turn in hires and quits, and the worst margin news in nine months suggests more second-round effect could ensue. High-frequency good news on unemployment has also stopped flashing with the rise in initial claims and
- [Striving To Be Hall of Fame Illustrators](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/12/striving-to-be-hall-of-fame-illustrators/) - Founded on February 1, 1901, by a group of nine artists and one businessman, the Society of Illustrators is America's oldest nonprofit organization dedicated to the art of illustration. Initially established with the simple credo “to promote generally the art of illustration and to hold exhibitions from time to time,” the New York City-based institution
- [Realized Loss in Purchasing Power Favors Noncyclicals over Cyclicals](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/11/realized-loss-in-purchasing-power-favors-noncyclicals-over-cyclicals/) - QUICK QUILL — Inflation-adjusted paychecks are shrinking, and things are likely to get worse before they get better if supply chain volatility and the tight trucking market have something to say about it. Since consumer price pass-through was lacking in the CPI report, we anticipate margin squeeze in PPI Trade Services becoming more visible as PPI
- [Downsizing](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/11/downsizing/) - Downsizing (2017): A social satire in which a man realizes he would have a better life if he shrank himself to five inches tall such that he lived in wealth and splendor. Starring Matt Damon, and including an all-star supporting cast of Kristen Wiig, Christoph Waltz, Jason Sudeikis and Laura Dern, the four-genre comedy/drama/sci-fi/fantasy film
- [Treasury Rally Could Extend Aided by Cooling Rents](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/10/treasury-rally-could-extend-aided-by-cooling-rents/) - QUICK QUILL — U.S. trade flows are hot, but the U.S. housing market is not. Existing Home Sales lack escape velocity even after May’s better-than-expected showing. The persistent disinflationary influence of median home price inflation running below CPI rents suggests April’s strong rent gains should not be sustained and could ease sharply, extending the intra-week U.S.
- [Seizing Liberty](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/10/seizing-liberty/) - Boston. June 10, 1768. British customs officials seized the Liberty, a sloop owned by wealthy colonial merchant and prominent Son of Liberty John Hancock. The vessel, carrying cargo of Madeira wine, was confiscated under the suspicion of smuggling and violating the widely despised Townshend Acts. Per the reporter on the scene to eyewitness: “Well, the
- [NFIB and New York Fed’s SCE Suggest Harvesting Small Cap Profits](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/09/nfib-and-new-york-feds-sce-suggest-harvesting-small-cap-profits/) - QUICK QUILL — Nuggets surfaced in the NFIB Jobs Report and New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) that countered BLS reported strength in job openings and nonfarm payrolls. To that end, NFIB’s loosening labor picture goes hand in hand with the SCE’s expectations for tightening credit. The kicker was Main Street’s capitulation between record
- [Scribing the Next Chyron](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/09/scribing-the-next-chyron/) - Chyrons are everywhere. So ubiquitous are they in everyday life, that they are easily overlooked even though they pop up all the time. A Chyron (pronounced KY-ron) is the text, graphics or banners that appear at the bottom of a television screen during a broadcast. When watching the news or a live sporting event, you
- [The Manager Payroll Trend Echoes Every Recession in the Past Half Centur](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/08/the-manager-payroll-trend-echoes-every-recession-in-the-past-half-centur/) - QUICK QUILL — Echoing the Great Recession, on a six-month annualized basis, manager payrolls have contracted for seven straight months and by 1.2%, prints that are the sole purview of every recession in the last half century. The slowing trend in this cohort’s income growth flags unsustainability in the growth spurt for their worker bee counterparts.
- [QI’s Sweet Tooth](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/08/qis-sweet-tooth/) - We were blessed (cursed?) with a massive sweet tooth at QI. There is nothing that satisfies that craving for us quite like a Chocolate Chip Walnut cookie from New York’s famed Levain Bakery. Funny enough, the iconic treat—massive, hockey puck-like, baked with a crusty exterior and a warm, gooey center—was created by accident. Levain Bakery
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 6.6.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/06/saturday-intelligence-briefing-6-6-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Shifting Global Landscapes — The Ex-U.S. Effect on the U.S. Economy](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/05/the-weekly-quill-shifting-global-landscapes-the-ex-u-s-effect-on-the-u-s-economy/)
- [Workers Continue to Draw the Short Straw](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/05/workers-continue-to-draw-the-short-straw/) - QUICK QUILL — The Capital over Labor theme is increasingly visible in 2026. Signals from Challenger job cuts and WARN notices show labor out of favor. Standing as evidence, nonfinancial corporate performance shows accelerating unit profit growth and declining unit labor costs through 2026’s first quarter stand, which ups our conviction on the narrative. For investors
- [From Pink Ribbons to Pink Slips](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/05/from-pink-ribbons-to-pink-slips/) - Deb Belfatto is a dynamic New Jersey community activist whose life and legacy are beautifully painted in every shade of pink. A visionary leader and a two-time breast cancer survivor, Belfatto has spent nearly four decades transforming personal adversity into a fierce, national model for women’s health advocacy. In 1997, she co-founded the Susan G.
- [Opposing Signals Keep Consumer Discretionary Caution Flag Raised](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/04/opposing-signals-keep-consumer-discretionary-caution-flag-raised/) - QUICK QUILL — Opposing data brandished a bullish ISM Manufacturing New Orders-Inventories and a bearish ISM Services New Orders-Inventories simultaneously in May. Wall Street takes its cue from the former, but not the latter that’s flashing red. Opposing themes of higher-than-normal service inflation parallel lower-than-normal employment, challenging consensus views for this Friday’s Employment report. RCM/TIPP’s June
- [Squeeze Bunt or Swing Away](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/04/squeeze-bunt-or-swing-away/) - Jimmy Dugan: You’re gonna squeeze bunt with our best hitter? What’s the sign to swing away? Hey, blond girl! What’s the sign to swing away? Dottie Hinson: It’s the letters. The infield’s deep. A squeeze’ll work. Jimmy Dugan: Stop thinking with your ****. You want a big inning here. Batter! The umpire calls ‘time’. Dugan
- [Fade Job Openings Gain, Quits-Layoffs Points to Lack of Wage Pressures](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/03/fade-job-openings-gain-quits-layoffs-points-to-lack-of-wage-pressures/) - QUICK QUILL — We are skeptical of the record rise for April Professional and Business Services job openings as other labor demand checks on the industry counter its outsized performance. Separately, the JOLTS Quits-Layoffs spread is not flagging wage pressures in the second half. With inflation already exceeding wage gains, purchasing power pressures will continue to
- [Towing the Full Employment Line](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/03/towing-the-full-employment-line/) - “What is meant by ‘full employment,’ and what is not meant by it? Full employment does not mean literally no unemployment; that is to say, it does not mean that every man and woman in the country who is fit and free for work is employed productively on every day of his or her working
- [Best News for Industrial Likely Behind Us](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/02/best-news-for-industrial-likely-behind-us/) - QUICK QUILL — Despite the downturn in non-data center private nonresidential construction extending another month through April, AI’s data center boom continues apace. ISM rose as expected, but signs of a top in leading New Orders flashed in the rise in Customers’ Inventories. While manufacturing credit managers have extended more credit to shoulder higher prices, rejected
- [The Way It Is](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/02/the-way-it-is/) - Bruce Hornsby had been working as a staff songwriter for years with no luck getting a record deal. His attempts to appeal to popular taste falling short, he decided to make a demo in his own style. He included a track called “The Way It Is,” inspired by his time growing up in Williamsburg, Virginia
- [Rent ISM’s Upside](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/01/rent-isms-upside/) - QUICK QUILL — Chicago PMI’s second-largest monthly gain ever suggests taking the over on today’s ISM Manufacturing index as the restock narrative gets a second wind. History has shown, though, that during previous oil shocks, activity was pulled ahead and headline gains faded. While not yet on the backside of this episode, future finished goods inventories
- [Bumpin’ That?](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/06/01/bumpin-that/) - Now I wanna hear my track, are you bumping that? Till the windows crack, I’ll be bumping that No, I’ll never go home Don’t sleep, don’t eat Just do it on repeat keep bumping that When I’m in the club, yeah I’m bumping that 365 party girl, bumping that Two Junes ago, British pop star
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 5.30.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/30/saturday-intelligence-briefing-5-30-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — When Essentials Become Luxuries — A QI Research Update on the U.S. Consumer](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/29/the-weekly-quill-when-essentials-become-luxuries-a-qi-research-update-on-the-u-s-consumer/)
- [Stalactite Formations](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/29/stalactite-formations/) - “There’s nothing more beautiful than these scarves, shawls, lambrequins of translucent calcite, some white as snow, falling in graceful folds, fringed with a thousand patterns, and so thin that a candle held behind one of them reveals all the structure within.”This is how The Smithsonian Institution described the sheer beauty of Luray Caverns, the natural
- [Consumer Discretionary Caution Maintained Amid Real Purchasing Power Loss and Worse-Than-Expected Household Stress](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/29/consumer-discretionary-caution-maintained-amid-real-purchasing-power-loss-and-worse-than-expected-household-stress/) - QUICK QUILL — Hey, NBER, the real loss in household purchasing power from your business cycle indicator -- Real Personal Income Less Transfers, raises a red recession flag. The revised depletion in personal savings relative to interest payments indicates worse-than-expected household stress. Recessionary-level cutbacks in discretionary travel are already being made. We maintain our caution on
- [Margin Squeeze on Labor Pops Up in Richmond and Dallas](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/28/margin-squeeze-on-labor-pops-up-in-richmond-and-dallas/) - QUICK QUILL — ADP’s weekly employment improvement coincided with the shift in Fed rate expectations over the last few months, while Richmond Fed’s Services Prices Received index has done little to change the elevated view for non-housing service inflation. This said, a common regional theme via yesterday’s Richmond and Dallas Fed Service reports was the margin
- [Eleanor Roosevelt Redux](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/28/eleanor-roosevelt-redux/) - Imagine if you will, First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt addressing QI’s readership. She was a pioneer influencer, penning “My Day,” a groundbreaking syndicated newspaper column that ran six days a week from 1935 to 1962. With it, she transformed the role of First Lady into that of an active, public spokesperson for social change. For the
- [Slower Industrial Activity and Demand-Side Disinflation Offsetting Geopolitical Supply-Side Inflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/27/slower-industrial-activity-and-demand-side-disinflation-offsetting-geopolitical-supply-side-inflation/) - QUICK QUILL — Industrial production more than accounted for upside in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, but the Dallas Fed’s Future Inventories gauge suggests the good news is unlikely to last and slower industrial output is more likely going forward. Conference Board’s ‘meh’ reading on forward-looking Consumer Expectations contrasted with the Chicago Fed data and
- [Ode to Rob Base](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/27/ode-to-rob-base/) - Sharing a bedroom at your family’s Alaska house with your Canadian boss whom you’re supposedly engaged to be married to so that she can keep her job in America? You’ve correctly identified this 2009 rom-com if you said The Proposal starring Sandra Bullock (Margaret Tate) and Ryan Reynolds (Andrew Paxton). Awkwardly lock them in a
- [Deflationary Mindset Trumps Any Whiff of Inflation Psychology](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/26/deflationary-mindset-trumps-any-whiff-of-inflation-psychology/) - QUICK QUILL — Inflation psychology is absent for big-ticket purchases like autos, homes and household durables. That doesn’t diminish households’ fear for longer-run prices rising outside of gasoline, especially in the context of the widespread inflation hit to current finances. In fact, most consumers anticipate their incomes will stagnate or fall in the next 12 months. This deflationary
- [Packing the Packard](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/26/packing-the-packard/) - Dr. Emmett Brown: Roads? Where we’re going, we don’t need roads. In 1908, Jacob Murdock channeled his best Doc Brown. At the time, the U.S. interstate highway system was decades away from reality. That didn’t stop the wealthy Pennsylvania businessman from endeavoring to prove that the automobile was a reliable mode of transportation for the
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 5.23.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/23/saturday-intelligence-briefing-5-23-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Polygamous Pledging in Private Credit — Revisiting a Credit Event-uality](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/21/the-weekly-quill-polygamous-pledging-in-private-credit-revisiting-a-credit-event-uality/)
- [Upstream Chemical Vulnerability Spells Higher Recession Risk for Germany](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/22/upstream-chemical-vulnerability-spells-higher-recession-risk-for-germany/) - QUICK QUILL — The collapse in Philly Fed manufacturing suggests upstream, demand-led price pressures are not developing as the supply chain shifts from pull-ahead to payback. Ongoing weakness in Backlogs and emerging declines in Employment add credence, as does slowing rail traffic for Chemical Carloads. Broader U.S. manufacturing shows industrial firms aggressively purchasing product, but this
- [It’s Not Easy Swimming Upstream](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/22/its-not-easy-swimming-upstream/) - If you need a cocktail party icebreaker or just want to impress your friends around the fire pit over the long holiday weekend, QI proffers everything you need to know about the salmon cycle. The primary reason it exists is survival as it ensures the survival of their offspring. The journey powered by geomagnetic and
- [Favor Staples over Discretionary](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/21/favor-staples-over-discretionary/) - QUICK QUILL — Inflation concerns were already high on rates traders’ worry wall in April. Now the trucking market is adding upside risk in May. As Fed Minutes showed policymakers pondering the potential for tightening, pressures on consumers expected finances and shifts toward essential spending over non-essentials favor consumer staples over their discretionary counterparts, especially
- [Shoot First, Ask Questions Later](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/21/shoot-first-ask-questions-later/) - The expression “shoot first, ask questions later” evolved from a Wild West association into a defining American pop-culture phrase. Its roots emanate from 19th century military and law enforcement protocols, wherein sentries navigated dark, hostile environments and were advised to “shoot first and challenge afterwards.” The idiom exploded into the public consciousness during the 1930s
- [Home Sales and Remodeling Cycles at Risk](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/20/home-sales-and-remodeling-cycles-at-risk/) - QUICK QUILL — Higher bond yields couldn’t have come at a worse time for Pending Home Sales that appeared to have gained traction over the last few months. Higher mortgage rates and elevated mortgage application rejection rates point to the housing sales slump continuing. Home Depot’s concerning comments suggest the remodeling cycle is about to
- [The 632-Year Commitment](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/20/the-632-year-commitment/) - Erecting the Cologne Cathedral (Kölner Dom), QI’s favorite in the world, proved to be a staggering six-century marathon of human commitment. In 1248, Archbishop Konrad von Hochstaden commissioned a Shrine to the Three Kings; Master Gerhard of Rile designed the soaring Gothic masterpiece. A few hundred years later, the project hit a rough patch. According
- [Margin Squeeze Continues on Service Sector and Home Builders](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/19/margin-squeeze-continues-on-service-sector-and-home-builders/) - QUICK QUILL — The margin squeeze narrative was on full display in May’s New York Fed Services survey. Businesses in America’s service hub are controlling what they can by keeping a lid on labor costs, especially wages which have been further pressured by higher health insurance costs. The lack of optimism is evident in the
- [Margin Squeeze Cycle Far from Resolution](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/19/margin-squeeze-cycle-far-from-resolution/) - A news cycle references the period between the initial reporting of an event and the next waves of information that ultimately retire the story from the headlines. Driven by a 24/7 digital landscape, a standard cycle progresses through four distinct phases: breaking news (the event occurs), amplification (media outlets rush to cover it from various
- [Rent The Rally in Industrial Fundamentals](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/18/rent-the-rally-in-industrial-fundamentals/) - QUICK QUILL — Breaking down all parts of the May Empire Manufacturing Survey revealed a pull-ahead theme on display. Delivery times, especially, are facing a supply-side driven bulge that are not confirmed by the broader trend in Manufacturing Capacity Utilization. A look upstream in the Industrial Production report also showed leading Chemicals output taking a
- [Fruit or Vegetable?](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/18/fruit-or-vegetable/) - Is a hot dog a sandwich or a taco? Is cereal a kind of soup? Is a tomato a fruit or a vegetable? The last of these food-related icebreaker questions was actually ruled on by the United States Supreme Court in 1893’s Nix vs. Hedden decision. Ten years prior, the Tariff Act of 1883 was
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 5.16.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/16/saturday-intelligence-briefing-5-16-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Patching the Global Patch — The QI Commodities Outlook](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/15/the-weekly-quill-patching-the-global-patch-the-qi-commodities-outlook/)
- [Consumer Discretionary Caution Deeply Reiterated](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/15/consumer-discretionary-caution-deeply-reiterated/) - QUICK QUILL — The gasoline and food shock ate up 70% of household disposable income in March and will likely digest a sizable portion of April too. Because of the price gains, real retail sales suffered back-to-back losses in March and April, setting up second-quarter goods spending volume in a hole. An acute driver shortage is exacerbating
- [With or Without Gasoline or Food](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/15/with-or-without-gasoline-or-food/) - Not many No. 1 singles are inspired by Dutch Renaissance scholars. And yet… the connection between Erasmus and U2’s “With or Without You” centers on a famous contradiction: being stuck between needing someone and being hurt by them. In his book Adagia, Erasmus preserved the Latin phrase Nec sine te, nec tecum vivere possum, which
- [Middle-income Households Present a Growing Risk to Consumer Spending](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/14/middle-income-households-present-a-growing-risk-to-consumer-spending/) - QUICK QUILL — As home price appreciated with the spring selling season, refinancing activity has become concentrated among new borrowers, many of whom use and government-backed mortgages. This flags middle-income households trying to free up cash flow as the gas/food price shock hits too close to home. ‘K’ shaped discretionary spending patterns for lower-income (underperforming)
- [Sideshows Matter](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/14/sideshows-matter/) - The circus sideshow emerged in the mid-19th century as a distinctly American cultural phenomenon. While early exhibitions of human oddities and exotic animals occurred in taverns and marketplaces, the format was formalized by entrepreneurs who recognized the public’s appetite could be monetized through structured storytelling. The primary architect of this movement was P.T. Barnum. In
- [Consumer Price Shock Disproportionately Hits Small Businesses](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/13/consumer-price-shock-disproportionately-hits-small-businesses/) - QUICK QUILL — Tension between above-normal small business prices is clashing with below-normal small business sales and indications of a loosening Main Street labor picture. The consumer price shock, especially for gasoline and food, leaves no household immune and adds to the top-line tension for business owners. An AI boom is not something Main Street
- [Someone Tell a Joke](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/13/someone-tell-a-joke/) - Rose: What the hell happened to you? Loretta: I really don’t know where to start. Rose: Your hair’s different. Loretta: Ma, everything is different. Rose: Are you drunk? Loretta: No, are you drunk? Rose: No…but I have a hangover. Loretta: Where’s Pop? Rose: Upstairs…Johnny Cammareri showed up last night. Loretta: What? He’s in Sicily. Rose:
- [CPI To Test the Margin Squeeze Narrative](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/12/cpi-to-test-the-margin-squeeze-narrative/) - QUICK QUILL — According to the Logistics Managers’ Index, transportation prices and capacity are at record divergence, putting core goods prices in the crosshairs of today’s CPI. The upward tilt in the Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index adds to the upside risk for core goods. Supercore service inflation may ease, but the Job Losers-Job
- [Big-Mouthed Bowhead Whales Have Seen It All](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/12/big-mouthed-bowhead-whales-have-seen-it-all/) - Bowhead whales have seen everything. Natives to the Arctic, they’ve been around a long, long time. According to NOAA’s Fisheries website, “Based on the recovery of stone harpoon tips from harvested bowheads, it is evident that bowhead whales live well over 100 years. However, new techniques allow for more precise estimation of bowhead whale age,
- [Underemployment to Further Pressure Wage Disinflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/11/underemployment-to-further-pressure-wage-disinflation/) - QUICK QUILL — At 3.6%, average hourly earnings rose 3.6% in April, south of last year’s average of 4.0% and south of headline CPI, which is forecast to print at 3.7% for last month when it’s reported tomorrow. Underemployment and an untenable rise in the cost of living for the bottom 90% is producing a
- [News From Home](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/11/news-from-home/) - “Dearest child, I’m surprised I haven’t heard from you. Your last letter was ten days ago. What happened? I wrote back immediately and included $20. I hope you got it. Write soon. I anxiously await news. You know I live for your letters.” In 1971, 21-year-old Chantal Akerman moved from Belgium to New York City,
- [The Weekly Quill — A Special Weekly Quill — A Dedication to My Twin Towers](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/10/the-weekly-quill-a-special-weekly-quill-a-dedication-to-my-twin-towers-2/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 5.9.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/09/saturday-intelligence-briefing-5-9-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — The Tug-of-War Between Stag & -Flation](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/08/the-weekly-quill-the-tug-of-war-between-stag-flation/)
- [Thursday’s Data Should Encourage Fed Hawks](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/08/thursdays-data-should-encourage-fed-hawks/) - QUICK QUILL — As the three Fed hawks added another to their cohort, nonfarm price inflation rose to a three-year high, influenced by higher nonlabor costs. This pre-Iran War development gives hawks more ammunition to vote for steady policy even as labor cost inflation eased to a three-year low. The ‘lower fire’ and ‘lower hire’
- [Fed Has More Than a ‘Lease’ on Hawks](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/08/fed-has-more-than-a-lease-on-hawks/) - Depending on how the birds are behaving, a group of hawks is referred to as a kettle, a boil or a cast. Birders and naturalists use the most popular term – kettle -- when these raptors spiral high in the air together. They use warm air currents called thermals to gain altitude, and from a
- [The Household Survey Trumps its Establishment Counterpart](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/07/the-household-survey-trumps-its-establishment-counterpart/) - QUICK QUILL — ADP could be flagging an upside surprise in private payrolls. However, Paychex’s small business gauge is performing well below the corresponding ADP figures. State payroll and household employment and breadth have diverged greatly thus far in 2026, raising the debate as to which survey – Household or Establishment – is telling the
- [Under a Rock](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/07/under-a-rock/) - If you’ve never seen an episode of SpongeBob SquarePants, you’ve been living under a rock. For Patrick Star, the pink, dim-witted sea star and lovable five-pointed best friend of SpongeBob, he’s defined by his home: a literal, hollowed-out brown rock. While his Bikini Bottom neighbors live in a pineapple or a moai statue, Patrick’s residence
- [Travel Pessimism Flags Margin Squeeze and Core Service Disinflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/06/travel-pessimism-flags-margin-squeeze-and-core-service-disinflation/) - QUICK QUILL — The compression in U.S. Consumer Expectations has yet to abate as gasoline prices and the fall in May’s RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index guide. Part of households’ underlying gloom is staked in the labor backdrop that reflects poorly based on below-normal outcomes for ISM and S&P Global Services Employment and New Orders. The
- [As Clear as It Gets](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/06/as-clear-as-it-gets/) - Blue Lake, known by its Māori name Rotomairewhenua, is officially recognized as the clearest natural body of fresh water in the world. Nestled within the Nelson Lakes National Park in New Zealand’s South Island, the lake boasts a visibility range between 70 and 80 meters, a figure that nearly matches the optical clarity of distilled
- [Global Stagflation Puts M&A and Financials in the Firing Line](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/05/global-stagflation-puts-ma-and-financials-in-the-firing-line/) - QUICK QUILL — Transport is leading a ubiquitous charge in global commodity prices. And while this has supported the pull-ahead narrative, global ex-U.S. New Export Orders have already faded from their February high. The stagflationary global outlook also should underpin Treasury yields and continue to buffet the merger & acquisition process. Financial equities’ days of
- [Welcome to Hog Island, Now Stuff Your Face](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/05/welcome-to-hog-island-now-stuff-your-face/) - Never shy of a contrarian viewpoint, QI commemorates Happy National Hoagie Day! Celebrated annually on May 5th, the day honors the iconic sandwich that’s become a staple of American deli culture, especially in Philadelphia. The term “hoagie” reportedly originated during World War I at the Hog Island shipyard. Italian immigrants working at the yard would
- [Panic Buying Does Not Signal a Demand Revival When Credit is Degrading](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/04/panic-buying-does-not-signal-a-demand-revival-when-credit-is-degrading/) - QUICK QUILL — Panic-buying does not equate to underlying demand; this was evident in Friday’s S&P Global manufacturing downbeat commentary across country lines. While rising U.S. Backlogs have traditionally portended a rising need for labor, continued weakening in the Employment index demonstrates that the rise in purchases is temporary in nature, driven by the war.
- [Goodbye, Yellow Bus in The Sky](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/04/goodbye-yellow-bus-in-the-sky/) - At 12:17 AM on Saturday, Flight 1833 touched down at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. It completed its three-hour journey from Detroit, and with it, the 33-year run of Spirit Airlines. Whether you ever flew the proverbial “greyhound bus in the sky” or not, you were impacted by its existence. Legacy carriers had to compete with
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 5.2.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/02/saturday-intelligence-briefing-5-2-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — The Elephant in Bank Loan Books](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/01/the-weekly-quill-the-elephant-in-bank-loan-books/)
- [Rich Jobless Claims Can’t Quell Risks to Consumer Spending](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/01/rich-jobless-claims-cant-quell-risks-to-consumer-spending/) - QUICK QUILL — The lowest initial claims in 57 years doesn’t diminish reversal risk for today’s ISM presaged by the sharp drop in the Chicago PMI. The loss of domestic light vehicle sales volume pre-dates the Iran War; when combined with the loss of real wage pressure, that leaves second quarter consumer spending momentum at
- [“Chocolate Chocolate Chocolate”](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/05/01/chocolate-chocolate-chocolate/) - “Great chocolate ice cream, like unicorns, is typically a myth. We want to believe, but usually, it’s just...sadness. Not anymore, kids. Welcome to this trifecta of Guittard cocoa, house-made chocolate ganache, and our melted, bittersweet chocolate chips. Believe it.” For 70 years, Santa Barbara, California’s McConnell’s Fine Ice Creams has used just a few, simple
- [Hard Data Demonstrate that There’s No Question the Fed Should Have an Easing Bias](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/30/hard-data-demonstrate-that-theres-no-question-the-fed-should-have-an-easing-bias/) - QUICK QUILL — Core capex boomed and housing starts added to the pre-FOMC tone, boosting Treasury yields in the process. Residential construction gains, however, looked long in the tooth in March and Phase 3 of the home building downturn should resume in April. The labor market’s latest rewrite from the Business Employment Dynamics report showed
- [Spiritus Animalis](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/30/spiritus-animalis/) - The journey from “spiritus animalis” to “animal spirits” reflects a shift from biological mysticism to behavioral economics. In ancient physiology, spiritus animalis (Latin for “breath that awakens the mind”) was believed to be a subtle fluid or vapor responsible for sensory activities, motor control and mental functions. Originally elucidated by Galen and later Descartes, these
- [Consumer Confidence Labor Gauges and the Regional Service Slump Flag Underpriced Odds of Fed Easing](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/29/consumer-confidence-labor-gauges-and-the-regional-service-slump-flag-fnderpriced-fed-fate-cut-probabilities/) - QUICK QUILL — Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report generated recession-like readings for two of its key labor gauges, while the slump in regional service sector activity points to further Supercore disinflation. Travel industry downward price pressures – outside of fuel surcharges – shouldn’t come as a surprise given vacation plans by car have plunged and
- [“Who’s Bad?”](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/29/whos-bad/) - The backstory behind Michael Jackson’s hit song “Bad” was a blend of gritty street reality and cinematic ambition. Released in 1987 as the title track of his Thriller follow-up, the song was inspired by a tragedy. According to his autobiography Moonwalk, Jackson read about a young man from a poor neighborhood attending private school. When
- [Capital-Labor Trade-Off Alive and Well in the Lone Star State](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/28/capital-labor-trade-off-alive-and-well-in-the-lone-star-state/) - QUICK QUILL — The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey indicated that cost inflation and productivity gains are amplifying building wage disinflation. It’s a blatant warning that in the short run, capital will trump labor, which does not support rising bond yields. TAKEAWAYS The Dallas Fed Mfg Current Prices Received-Paid spread sank to -9.4 in April, its
- [Just Passing Through](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/28/just-passing-through-2/) - As April showers turn to May flowers, summer road trip season beckons. This got us thinking about the shortest and longest distances it takes to traverse East to West in the Lower 48. Of course, it depends on where you pin-drop. Want to speed-demon it? Near Hancock, Maryland, the state is only 1.8 miles across,
- [Sky-High Gasoline Prices and Gyrating Stock Prices Dampening Consumption Outlook](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/27/sky-high-gasoline-prices-and-gyrating-stock-prices-dampening-consumption-outlook/) - QUICK QUILL — Stubbornly high prices at the pump are having a disproportionately depressing effect on residents of the West and Northeast, which is manifesting as higher job insecurity relative to their regional counterparts where gasoline prices are materially lower. Perceptions of personal job insecurity are also the highest in the West, where AI is seen as
- [Disruption on the Floor](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/27/disruption-on-the-floor/) - Timestamp: September 14, 1989 Using fake badges with the Bear Stearns logo printed on them, seven members of the activist group ACT UP (AIDS Coalition to Unleash Power) secretly infiltrate the New York Stock Exchange trading floor. Seconds before the opening bell, the men blare foghorns to drown out its ringing, drop fake $100 bills,
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 4.25.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/25/saturday-intelligence-briefing-4-25-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — A Special Weekly Quill — A Dedication to My Twin Towers](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/24/the-weekly-quill-a-special-weekly-quill-a-dedication-to-my-twin-towers/)
- [Asymmetric Growth Downgrade Risks Amid Deteriorating Fundamentals](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/24/asymmetric-growth-downgrade-risks-amid-deteriorating-fundamentals/) - QUICK QUILL — 'Manufacturing Margin Squeeze’ and ‘Services’ Stagflation’ were two key takeaways plucked from S&P Global’s April PMIs. ‘Pre-War Recessionary Labor Slack’ from the BLS’s February state employment/unemployment report added to the din. First-half U.S. growth optimism paints a complacent picture with Q1 and Q2 estimates at 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively. These expectations are
- [The 1980 Lightbulb Joke Contest](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/24/the-1980-lightbulb-joke-contest/) - Lightbulb jokes took hold in the late 1960s. They originated as ethnic stereotypical humor questioning how many people of a certain group it took to change a lightbulb. By early 1980, they were a widespread, mainstream joke. Seeing the trend explode, Guy Trebay, longtime columnist for The Village Voice, convinced his bosses to sponsor a
- [The Margin Squeeze and Labor Slack Phenomena Have Fused](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/23/the-margin-squeeze-and-labor-slack-phenomena-have-fused/) - QUICK QUILL — Evidence of the tight trucking market is manifest as shipping costs take the reins of the cost shock. Through the third week of April, DAT’s trucking rates, which combine linehaul rates and fuel surcharges, climbed to levels more than 35% above years ago levels. The prohibitive jump adds another angle to the magnitude
- [Chocolate is to Peanut Butter as Loads are to Trucks](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/23/chocolate-is-to-peanut-butter-as-loads-are-to-trucks/) - Posthumously inducted into the Candy Hall of Fame in the Class of 2009, Harry Burnett “H.B.” Reese was a real American success story. Born in 1879 in Frosty Hill, PA, Reese resided there with his family until he married Blanche Edna in 1900. A struggling farmer with 16 children, he took a job at one
- [The Illusion of Consumer Resilience is Nominal, Not Real](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/22/the-illusion-of-consumer-resilience-is-nominal-not-real/) - QUICK QUILL — After adjusting for inflation, March retail sales excluding food services fell 0.1%; food service sales volume dropped at a similar rate. An example of the arrested retail momentum at first quarter’s end was seen through the sell-off in Tractor Supply shares as it reported disappointing pet spending amid higher prices for food at
- [Live Volunteers Needed](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/22/live-volunteers-needed/) - Physicist and engineer Samuel W. Alderson is widely recognized as the Father of the Crash Test Dummy. In the late 1940s, while working with the Sierra Engineering Company, Alderson developed “Sierra Sam,” the first anthropomorphic test device (ATD). Sam was a 6-foot-tall dummy made of rubber and steel, originally designed for the U.S. Air Force
- [Labor Slack Narrative Supported by Rising Wage Disinflation Signals](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/21/labor-slack-narrative-supported-by-rising-wage-disinflation-signals/) - QUICK QUILL — There’s no letup in the bankruptcy and layoff cycles which have seen the ratio of New Entrants to the unemployed vis-à-vis Permanent Job Losers fall noticeably from its September 2025 peak to where it is today – sitting on key support. The New York Fed’s SCE Labor Market Survey indicated that consumers don’t
- [Quality, Value, and Convenience](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/21/quality-value-and-convenience/) - On November 24, 1986, QVC (Quality Value Convenience) entered the American living room, broadcasting to 58 cable systems across 20 states. Founded by Joseph Segel, the creator of the Franklin Mint, the network launched from a modest studio in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Its mission was clear: Challenge the dominance of the Home Shopping Network (HSN).
- [On the Ground Data Flag an Increasingly Stretched U.S. Consumer](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/20/on-the-ground-data-flag-an-increasingly-stretched-u-s-consumer/) - QUICK QUILL — Restaurant traffic trends defy big bank CEOs’ sanguine take on the U.S. consumer. A spike in removed job listings accompanied by employers yanking job postings after shorter periods adds weight to the continued pullback in hiring as broad-based demand continues to deteriorate; this corroborates Indeed’s data showing job opportunities’ persistent downtrend. Truflation’s core
- [A Change is Gonna Come](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/20/a-change-is-gonna-come/) - “I was born by the river in a little tent Oh and just like the river I’ve been running ever since It’s been a long, a long time coming But I know a change gonna come, oh yes it will It’s been too hard living but I’m afraid to die Cause I don’t know
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 4.18.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/18/saturday-intelligence-briefing-4-18-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Doubling Down – Gambling on the Future of Americans’ Retirement](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/17/the-weekly-quill-doubling-down-gambling-on-the-future-of-americans-retirement/)
- [Reduced Capacity Pressures Risk Further Wage Disinflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/17/reduced-capacity-pressures-risk-further-wage-disinflation/) - QUICK QUILL — The weight that every Thursday’s weekly jobless claims report carries is increasingly a blind spot -- continuing claims cover just 25% of the total unemployed and a mere 14% of those who are out of work and want to work. Despite the data inadequacy, further labor market slack is in train. Reduced capacity
- [Building a Better Parachute](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/17/building-a-better-parachute/) - The progeny of a terrifying brush with death was a lifesaver. In 1914, while flying with his wife Hilder, test pilot and flying circus daredevil James Floyd Smith’s plane malfunctioned. Furiously fighting a primitive, static-line parachute, Hilder’s nearly failed to deploy. Seeing his love’s life flash before his eyes, Smith vowed to invent a modern
- [Add Manufacturers and Homebuilders to the Cohort of Those Suffering Margin Squeeze](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/16/add-manufacturers-and-homebuilders-to-the-cohort-of-those-suffering-margin-squeeze/) - QUICK QUILL — The margin squeeze moved upstream to production and homebuilding. Bulging trucking costs add to the narrative in both sectors. The Empire Manufacturing survey noted that worsening expectations with respect to supply availability are being met with cuts to future inventory plans, something that should manifest in lower shipment volumes. The quintuple dip in
- [Repeating like a GIF](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/16/repeating-like-a-gif/) - The year was 1995. The World Wide Web was still in diapers. And Netscape Navigator owned the browser market. Around this time, Lisa Gelobter led a collective engineering effort team at Netscape Communications that developed the animation technology to loop a GIF (Graphics Interchange Format). Thanks to the work done by CompuServe creator Steve Wilhite
- [Main Street Slack Displays the Margin Squeeze Revival](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/15/main-street-slack-displays-the-margin-squeeze-revival/) - QUICK QUILL — We observe gaping slack from multiple Main Street metrics in the NFIB small business survey. The Margin Squeeze theme also made a comeback, emanating from both the NFIB and PPI reports. Elevated Portfolio Management fees – emanating from financial market performance and not consumer demand – are impeding observed progress on core non-housing
- [People-Watching Main Street](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/15/people-watching-main-street/) - The Oxford English Dictionary defines People-Watching as “passing time in a public place by idly observing people.” While this genericness fits the vernacular for anyone sunbathing at the beach, it also works equally well for sipping cappuccino in a public square, watching away. But there are a couple of specific expressions for observing others on
- [Existing Home Sales and Home-Related Spending Will Drag on Second-Quarter GDP](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/15/existing-home-sales-and-home-related-spending-will-drag-on-second-quarter-gdp/) - QUICK QUILL — March’s disappointing existing home sales predate the Iran War and the additional economic uncertainty the event will inevitably induce. Oil’s influence on higher mortgage rates is the simplest explanation for housing’s woes. However, Higher Unemployment Expectations have been an important labor cycle read-through, tightly tracking home buying and selling conditions related to economic
- [Sweet Spot for Wine, Not Housing](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/14/sweet-spot-for-wine-not-housing/) - Wine Enthusiast’s Chief Revenue and Education Officer Marshall Tilden III identifies the sweet spot for storing wine at around 55°F. That goes for all wines, whether red, white or sparkling; it’s true for prized collectibles as well as that budget bottle of Merlot purchased from the grocery store. “Temperature is the most important enemy of
- [Discretionary Spending Risks Climb the Income Ladder](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/13/discretionary-spending-risks-climb-the-income-ladder/) - QUICK QUILL — High-income earners’ faith in stock market gains has waned, denting purchase expectations for big-ticket items. Unlike other consumer confidence ‘warnings,’ the sole precedent of 1981 of synchronized auto and large household durables saw spending collapse 26% on a QoQ annualized basis. The macro flag is reinforced by real wage disinflation in March. We
- [Ingmar, not Ingrid](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/13/ingmar-not-ingrid/) - “Your vision of life has moved me deeply, much more deeply than I have ever been moved by any films. I believe you are the greatest film-maker at work today.” In February 1960, a 31-year-old Stanley Kubrick wrote these words in a letter to Swedish film director Ingmar Bergman, whose work is heralded for its
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 4.11.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/11/saturday-intelligence-briefing-4-11-26/)
- [Logistics Shock Could Twist the Curve](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/10/logistics-shock-could-twist-the-curve/) - QUICK QUILL — The Iran War/Oil shock has moved on to the supply chain. The Logistics Managers’ Index indicated rising pressures for Transportation, Warehousing and Inventory Costs that risk a cost-push into the U.S.’s official inflation reports. However, the inventory restock is losing traction, suggesting less of a build could develop due waning demand despite the
- [You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/10/you-aint-seen-nothin-yet/) - Bachman-Turner Overdrive’s “You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet” is an extraordinary case of an inside joke accidentally becoming a global anthem. In 1974, Randy Bachman recorded the track as a “work song” to test studio dynamics; it was never intended for public consumption. Because Bachman didn't think it would be released, the band didn't bother perfecting
- [Ceasefire Relief, but Caution Persists on Consumer Discretionary](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/09/ceasefire-relief-but-caution-persists-on-consumer-discretionary/) - QUICK QUILL — Oil movements guide economic sentiment. The Iran War ceasefire should generate a subsequent rally across multiple gauges, whether it’s investors, CEOs or surveyed consumers. Until the data catches up to geopolitical events, forward-looking Consumer Expectations are likely to be reflected as a downdraft in the University of Michigan survey. We remain cautious on
- [The Lunch Break War](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/09/the-lunch-break-war/) - Ceasefires don’t end wars. It’s worthwhile to know that the Iran War does not qualify as the shortest ever either. According to Guinness World Records, that title goes to the 1896 Anglo-Zanzibar War. This shortest war between Great Britain and Zanzibar lasted from 9:00 to 9:45 AM on August 27, 1896. The conflict was sparked
- [The Weekly Quill — The Gladiator Gig — The QI Research Labor Market Outlook](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/08/the-weekly-quill-the-gladiator-gig-the-qi-research-labor-market-outlook/)
- [Core Inflation at Risk Via Higher Job Insecurity, Waning Earnings Expectations and Tightening Credit Conditions](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/08/core-inflation-at-risk-via-higher-job-insecurity-waning-earnings-expectations-and-tightening-credit-conditions/) - QUICK QUILL — The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations flagged anticipations for rising job insecurity, deteriorating earnings expectations, and tightening credit conditions in the next year. The combination keeps us cautious on consumer discretionary and watchful for progress on core non-housing services inflation. TAKEAWAYS NY Fed Job Finding Expectations were below 50% across all
- [We’re Going Streaking!](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/08/were-going-streaking/) - Marissa: [after seeing Frank running naked along the streets, she slows down her car] Frank, what are you doing? Frank: [out of breath] We’re... We’re going streaking! We’re going up the quad and to the gymnasium. Marissa: Who is? Frank: Th... W... There’s more coming. Marissa: Frank, get in the car. Frank: But... everybody’s doing
- [BoC Rate Hike Expectations Inconsistent with Canada Business and Consumer Surveys](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/07/boc-rate-hike-expectations-inconsistent-with-canada-business-and-consumer-surveys/) - QUICK QUILL — U.S. and Canadian consumers are miserable in concert as is manifest in fading consumer sentiment. U.S. service companies are showing the effects of the Iran War price shock, while long-under-pressure Canadian service providers are reeling anew. Bank of Canada rate hike probabilities in swaps markets are fundamentally inconsistent with soft Canada service results
- [Reelin’ in North America](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/07/reelin-in-north-america/) - Steely Dan was known for its meticulous sound, to a fault – it’s as if every note was engineered to be perfect. The groovy, immensely catchy tune, “Reelin’ in the Years,” became one of Steely Dan’s trademark tunes for generation after generation to enjoy. The storyline recalled sweet times with a girlfriend and a romantic
- [Labor Market Weakness Spreading to Heretofore ‘Recession Proof” Sectors](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/06/labor-market-weakness-spreading-to-heretofore-recession-proof-sectors/) - QUICK QUILL — Given the unprecedented string of 14 real-time revisions to nonfarm payrolls, we take more stock in timelier and more reliable gauges from S&P Global and ISM. That made Friday’s unsung data hero S&P Global’s Services survey, which contracted at the headline level for the first time in more than three years while its
- [Peeling The Onion](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/06/peeling-the-onion/) - “Artemis II Mission Fails After Astronauts Miss Connection Rocket in Atlanta” Headlines like this one from The Onion never fail to make us laugh. Curiosity as to the origins of the satirical publication led us down an unplanned Internet rabbit hole. In 1988, two University of Wisconsin-Madison students, Tim Keck and Christopher Johnson, came up
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 4.4.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/04/saturday-intelligence-briefing-4-4-26/)
- [Repricing of the ECB and Fed Is Incomplete](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/02/repricing-of-the-ecb-and-fed-is-incomplete/) - QUICK QUILL — The Euro Area shock on household finances has rates traders there pricing out rate hike probabilities, but the work is far from complete. In the U.S., stress in the service sector and emerging evidence that the restock narrative has peaked contrasts with the Fed’s Higher for Longer policy error that persists, especially in
- [Ferreting on National Ferret Day](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/02/ferreting-on-national-ferret-day/) - Every April 2nd, National Ferret Day invites the world to revel in the spirited “weasel war dance” of the domestic ferret. The most prestigious mascot, however, dates to the 15th century. Leonardo da Vinci’s masterpiece, Lady with an Ermine, is the ultimate historical bridge for the early-April celebration. Art historians and zoologists concur that the
- [Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Tag Team Deepening Labor Market Slack](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/01/consumer-confidence-and-jolts-tag-team-deepening-labor-market-slack/) - QUICK QUILL — Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report enhanced the labor loosening theme via guidance for higher unemployment and lower nonfarm payrolls. Nonfarm quits from the JOLTS report reached a new cycle low, emphasizing wage disinflation risks and rising job insecurity. The JOLTS Hires-Separations spread is setting up bad optics for February’s payroll revision that could
- [The Fifth Element](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/04/01/the-fifth-element/) - Depending on your prism -- ancient philosophy, modern science or 1990s pop culture -- the Fifth Element takes on different meanings. Like just about everything else, of course it started with the Greeks! Aristotle argued that while the four terrestrial elements of Earth, Air, Fire and Water were subject to change and decay, the heavens
- [Texas Manufacturing Points to a Cooler ISM](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/31/texas-manufacturing-points-to-a-cooler-ism/) - QUICK QUILL — The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing survey points to a cooler result for the ISM index relative to consensus expectations as restocking reverts to the reality of a persistent industrial recession. Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed’s Banking Conditions survey showed a deteriorating nonperforming loan picture for commercial and residential real estate and commercial and industrial
- [Cooler in Texas](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/31/cooler-in-texas/) - The most popular cooler brands in the U.S. include names you know: YETI, Igloo, Coleman and Pelican. Bison Coolers might not be a household name, but it was born from a classic Texan frustration: high-end coolers shouldn't have to cost a fortune or break after a single season. Founded in 2011 and based in Fort
- [Spending at the Top of the ‘K’ Is Increasingly at Risk](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/30/spending-at-the-top-of-the-k-is-increasingly-at-risk/) - QUICK QUILL — We’ve reached the danger zone about which we’ve sweated for so long – the point at which the few who reside at the top of the ‘k’ begin to pay attention to their portfolios. That happens when one’s stock market investments, per UMich, are 26% off their highs. Little wonder, this same upper-income
- [Under the Bell Jar](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/30/under-the-bell-jar/) - “…Because wherever I sat—on the deck of a ship or at a street café in Paris or Bangkok—I would be sitting under the same glass bell jar, stewing in my own sour air.” American writer Sylvia Plath’s only novel, The Bell Jar, tells the story of Esther Greenwood, a college student interning at a fashion
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 3.28.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/28/saturday-intelligence-briefing-3-28-26/)
- [Gauging Second Round Effects of Sentiment Shocks](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/27/gauging-second-round-effects-of-sentiment-shocks/) - QUICK QUILL — The U.S. sentiment shock leans toward a weaker outcome for today’s final March University of Michigan consumer report. Morning Consult’s daily metrics point in that direction, while also flagging a flatter yield curve and downside risk for consumer spending, especially autos. Appreciating the globality of the shock, Germany’s sentiment jolt suggests recession probability
- [500 Miles](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/27/500-miles/) - When I wake up, well I know I′m gonna be I'm gonna be the man who wakes up next to you When I go out, yeah, I know I′m gonna be I'm gonna be the man who goes along with you If I get drunk, well, I know I'm gonna be I′m gonna be the
- [The Weekly Quill — Letting it Bleed — Broad Economy Saps Shelter Inflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/26/the-weekly-quill-letting-it-bleed-broad-economy-saps-shelter-inflation/)
- [Not Importing Progress](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/26/not-importing-progress/) - At the March 18th FOMC press conference, Chair Powell’s first question centered on whether the Federal Reserve should look through higher oil prices stemming from the Iran War. He had something more important to address before answering: “So, first let me say, we’re well aware of the performance of inflation over the last few years
- [The Euro Area’s Margin Shock Introduces Labor Contagion and Defies ECB Rate Hike Odds](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/25/the-euro-areas-margin-shock-introduces-labor-contagion-and-defies-ecb-rate-hike-odds/) - QUICK QUILL — The Euro Area’s service sector margin shock translating to labor market distress would catch central bankers and rates traders off guard. A margin squeeze in the Fed’s Third District echoes the situation across the Atlantic but was not as evident in S&P Global’s U.S. Services PMI. Dual narratives of discretionary travel pressures and
- [The Carrington Event](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/25/the-carrington-event/) - “On Thursday, September 1, 1859, a 33-year-old brewer and amateur astronomer named Richard Carrington climbed the stairs to his private observatory near London, opened the dome slit, and as was his habit on a sunny morning, adjusted his telescope to project an 11-inch image of the sun onto a screen. He was tracing sunspots on
- [Fade S&P Global Manufacturing as Chicago Fed Reinforces Labor Slack](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/24/fade-sp-global-manufacturing-as-chicago-fed-reinforces-labor-slack/) - QUICK QUILL — The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions points to an upside surprise for today’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. From a technical perspective, the gain may not last. Moreover, the evolving cost shock facing Seventh District businesses has them cutting labor costs to a greater extent and guiding hiring plans lower. The regional labor
- [Welcome to Major League Eating](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/24/welcome-to-major-league-eating/) - Major League Eating (MLE) is the world body that oversees all professional eating contests. Even the casual observer is familiar with the MLE-sanctioned Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest in Coney Island, New York. A 17-time winner and World Record holder of 76 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes in 2021,
- [Violent Markets Heighten Concentration and Demographic Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/23/violent-markets-heighten-concentration-and-demographic-risks/) - QUICK QUILL — Like valuations, household net worth can rise far into bubble territory. That is certainly the case today, with net worth long having skipped past prior cycles’ precedents. The ‘kickers’ are the deep concentrations of real estate and equities in the oldest Americans, which render the risks of overvaluation double-edged. The violent rise in
- [The “Fixer”](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/23/the-fixer/) - “He/She will not do or commit anything tending to degrade him/her in society or bring him/her into public hatred, contempt, scorn or ridicule, or tending to shock, insult or offend the community or outrage public morals or decency, or tending to the prejudice of the Universal Film Manufacturing Company or the motion picture industry.” During
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 3.21.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/21/saturday-intelligence-briefing-3-21-26/)
- [Philly Ratifies Temporary Restock Narrative, While Builders’ Margin Squeeze Shows No End](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/20/philly-ratifies-temporary-restock-narrative-while-builders-margin-squeeze-shows-no-end/) - QUICK QUILL — We gleaned two separate takeaways from yesterday’s U.S. economic calendar. The upside in the Philly Fed, supported by the temporary restock narrative, is manifest in Pennsylvania’s jobless picture, as measured by continuing claims, outperforming the nation. Philly Backlogs, however, warn the strength won’t be sustained. And while weather may take the blame for
- [Don’t Mess with Rocky](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/20/dont-mess-with-rocky/) - Adrian: There's one thing I want you to do for me. Rocky: What? Adrian: Come here. Rocky: What? Adrian: Win, win... Mickey: What're we waiting for? Attending Philadelphia sports events in visiting fan attire is done at your own risk. Jonathan flouted that advice on February 28 when he took his son, a Boston Bruins
- [The Weekly Quill — The Princely Scientists — The Power of Selectively Deceptive Data](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/19/the-weekly-quill-the-princely-scientists-the-power-of-selectively-deceptive-data/)
- [Merciless Wait-and-See Fed Extends Policy Error](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/19/merciless-wait-and-see-fed-extends-policy-error/) - QUICK QUILL — PPI’s upside surprise piled on to oil’s near-term inflation. The noncommittal Fed is sitting on its hands, giving itself cover from war uncertainty. The bankruptcy cycle isn’t pausing, however, and U.S. consumer liquidity needs are growing. The Fed’s lack of monetary support extends its policy error. TAKEAWAYS PPI Travel Accommodation Services accounted for
- [Pareidolia Spells No Fed Relief](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/19/pareidolia-spells-no-fed-relief/) - If you think you’re seeing things, then you’re not alone. Pareidolia is the tendency for the human brain to see meaningful patterns or images in random places. When you least expect it, you visualize a face in a cloud or on the front of a car or in the pattern of your tiled kitchen floor.
- [The Case for Curve Flattening Builds as Consumer Discretionary Risks Rise](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/18/the-case-for-curve-flattening-builds-as-consumer-discretionary-risks-rise/) - QUICK QUILL — Stagflation’s persistence in the nation’s service hub is manifest in investors’ expectations as WARN continues to defy notions of an economic expansion. Investors’ expectations for yield curve flattening have also risen as consumer discretionary risks rise. TAKEAWAYS On a z-score basis, NY Fed Services Current Prices Paid and Received are near +1 while
- [Stagflation: Worst of Both Worlds](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/18/stagflation-worst-of-both-worlds/) - “We now have the worst of both worlds – not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other, but both of them together. We have a sort of ‘stagflation’ situation and history in modern terms is indeed being made.” During a speech in the U.K.’s House of Commons on November 17, 1965,
- [A Slippery Oil Shock to a Shipping Shock](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/17/a-slippery-oil-shock-to-a-shipping-shock/) - QUICK QUILL — The oil price/diesel fuel shock adds another layer to the tight shipping market. The Empire Manufacturing report helped illustrate this through Current Delivery Times lengthening to a seven-month high – and 1.50 z-score. Curiously, Second District industrial firms did not anticipate follow-through for Future Prices Paid. Perhaps, Cass’s three-year-plus shipment volume slump echoed
- [Shockers](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/17/shockers/) - U.S. colleges have the weirdest nicknames, like the UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs, Delta State Fighting Okra and Presbyterian College Blue Hose, to name a few. The Wichita State University Shockers also qualify in that department and have a unique backstory that has nothing to do with electricity. Our tale begins in 1904. Then called
- [The Weekly Quill — Res Ipsa Loquitur — Private Credit Speaks for Itself](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/12/the-weekly-quill-res-ipsa-loquitur-private-credit-speaks-for-itself/)
- [Disinflation, Anemic Growth, and Job Losses Preceded the Iranian War](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/16/disinflation-anemic-growth-and-job-losses-preceded-the-iranian-war/) - QUICK QUILL — U.S. disinflation was deeply entrenched before the first missile flew in the Iranian war. Any further budgetary household strains as layoffs mount, especially in the white-collar sector, will bleed straight out of already strained discretionary spending, further enflaming disinflationary pressures. In that starting points matter, it matters that total unemployment has exceeded aggregate
- [Light at the End of the Tunnel](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/16/light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel/) - “LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL!” On April 6, 2020, President Trump tweeted this turn of phrase, expressing optimism that the COVID pandemic would soon be over. Decades prior, this same phrase came up in a libel trial between CBS and General William Westmoreland, commander of U.S. forces during the Vietnam War. CBS had
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 3.14.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/14/saturday-intelligence-briefing-3-14-26/)
- [Good Home Building Headlines Not to Last](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/13/good-home-building-headlines-not-to-last/) - QUICK QUILL — A disconnect has opened between continuing claims and big data for filing unemployment. Part of the missing unemployed likely are choosing to drive for the likes of Uber – and possibly file a new business application in the process. January’s housing starts are temporary good news for the homebuilding sector that in February
- [Pulling the Switch](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/13/pulling-the-switch/) - Most major blackouts are the result of cascading failures, storms or even equipment meltdowns, but there have been instances where human error caused a massive collapse – like what happened in Taiwan in March 2022. A failure at the Hsinta coal-fired power plant in Kaohsiung led to blackouts across multiple regions, including the capital Taipei
- [Core Disinflationary Pressures Far from Exhausted](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/12/core-disinflationary-pressures-far-from-exhausted/) - QUICK QUILL — The easing in core CPI inflation is ongoing. On the goods side, used vehicles are dragging core goods inflation lower despite tariffs’ influence on other merchandise. On the service side, a full normalization in core services back to pre-pandemic averages is nearly complete thanks to an assist from an easing in rents. Supercore
- [Cadillac Man](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/12/cadillac-man/) - Larry: Tell them to stay back or I’ll blow this place and half the ****** block to hell. Joey: Stay back or he’s gonna blow this place and half the block to hell. Det. Walters (on bullhorn): Yeah? With what? Larry: The stuff on my bike there. It’s very explosive stuff. Joey: He’s got stuff
- [Home Price Pressures Not Abating](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/11/home-price-pressures-not-abating/) - QUICK QUILL — The labor foundation for home sales has gotten shakier. The third quarter 2025 QCEW points to a sharp downward revision to nonfarm payrolls, while NFIB’s Poor Sales unemployment tracker rose back to a cycle high. Home selling conditions could deteriorate further come Friday’s UMich consumer sentiment report. And forward guidance from pending home
- [Chomping at the Bit](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/11/chomping-at-the-bit/) - “Chomping at the bit” originates from the high-tension-induced air at the starting gate of a horse race -- an equine so eager to run that it restlessly bites and grinds the metal bit in its mouth. This action, historically known as “champing,” creates a distinct clicking sound and often produces white foam, a physical sign
- [Reiterating Caution on Consumer Discretionary](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/10/reiterating-caution-on-consumer-discretionary/) - QUICK QUILL — February’s consumer inflation expectations convergence reflected a survey-date-driven calm before March’s oil price shock. Even so, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations was already indicating opposing headline and core inflation risks; higher energy prices exacerbate the pre-existing divergence. Higher gasoline prices come at a time when wage inflation was battling
- [Keep Calm and Carry On](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/10/keep-calm-and-carry-on/) - “Keep Calm and Carry On” is an archetype lost and found story. Originally designed by the British Ministry of Information in the Summer 1939, it was intended to steady the public’s nerves as WWII loomed. The third in a series of motivational posters featuring the Tudor Crown of King George VI, it set itself apart
- [Multiplying Great Recession Labor Market Parallels Magnify the Fed’s Policy Error](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/09/multiplying-great-recession-labor-market-parallels-magnify-the-feds-policy-error/) - QUICK QUILL — Five of the last nine months have seen nonfarm payrolls print in the red with January’s the deepest outside the pandemic since September 2010 even if one incorporates striking Kaiser Permanente physicians. At the same time, the inversion between worker-manager payrolls for six cyclical industries is at its lowest non-pandemic level since December
- [An Unsolved Italian Murder](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/09/an-unsolved-italian-murder/) - “I may be an unbeliever, but I am an unbeliever who has a nostalgia for a belief.” Pier Paolo Pasolini In 1975, Italian film director Pier Paolo Pasolini was brutally murdered on the outskirts of Rome. Half a century later, the case remains unsolved. Initially, a teenager named Giuseppe Pelosi confessed, only to retract
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 3.7.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/07/saturday-intelligence-briefing-3-7-26/)
- [Cyclical Factors Are Driving Layoffs with Leisure and Hospitality Particularly Vulnerable](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/06/cyclical-factors-are-driving-layoffs-with-leisure-and-hospitality-particularly-vulnerable/) - QUICK QUILL — QI’s AI experiment – not official forecasts – with nonfarm payrolls leans toward upside risk and counters consensus and whisper number expectations. Separately, while AI is becoming a more important layoff factor, cyclical forces are driving virtual pink slips’ growth this year. Alternative source Revelio posted an outright decline in February and suggests
- [The Price Is Right](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/06/the-price-is-right/) - Streaks were made to be broken. Bob Barker once held the record for the longest-running host for a single game show. Barker’s 35-year run on The Price Is Right (1972-2007) was the gold standard for the ages. But it was broken in 2019 by Pat Sajak. His 42 seasons on Wheel of Fortune from 1981
- [The Weekly Quill — Reversion to Dream — The Path to U.S. Housing Normalization](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/05/the-weekly-quill-reversion-to-dream-the-path-to-u-s-housing-normalization/)
- [Transportation & Oil Price Shocks Offset by Disinflationary Job Insecurity & Wage Disinflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/05/transportation-oil-price-shocks-offset-by-disinflationary-job-insecurity-wage-disinflation/) - QUICK QUILL — The ISM Services restock surge and LMI’s pre-Iran transportation price shock, with more in store, contrasts with a fade out in job security, according to ADP. While we reiterate our tactical long in the Dow Transports, additional signs of a loosening labor cycle reduce our conviction. TAKEAWAYS In February’s Logistics Managers’ Index, Transportation
- [More Than a Feeling](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/05/more-than-a-feeling/) - If you were stranded on a desert island with only one album to listen to, what would it be? Danielle grew up on her father’s music. Her choice is The Rolling Stones’ seminal album, Beggars Banquet. Jonathan’s is nearly a tie between Bruce Springsteen’s Born to Run and Boston’s self-titled first album, Boston; gun to
- [Payrolls Face Downside Risk Given Services Credit Distress](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/04/payrolls-face-downside-risk-given-services-credit-distress/) - QUICK QUILL — A monthly check-in with credit managers indicates sales in the broader service sector look decent. However, credit concerns are ongoing in this labor-intensive side of the U.S. economy relative to the industrial complex’s green flags. Signs of tighter service trade credit tracking with the higher path of WARN notices is a rare combination
- [As Heavy as a Train Full of Granite](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/04/as-heavy-as-a-train-full-of-granite/) - March 4th was a significant day in U.S. transportation history. In 1826, it marked the date of the first chartered American railroad, the Granite Railway Company based in Quincy, Massachusetts. This “short line” was financed for a construction cost of $50,000, about $1.6 million in today’s dollars. Hoping to easily transport granite between Quincy and
- [Tightening Supply Chain Combats Loosening Labor Cycle](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/03/tightening-supply-chain-combats-loosening-labor-cycle/) - QUICK QUILL — February’s ISM further supported to our restock narrative, especially the surging Import index and punctuated by the rally in global shipping stocks. GDP math, however, dictates that stronger imports will manifest as a downgrade to near-term growth prospects. Indeed’s cooling Wage Growth Tracker sets up a counter disinflationary theme vis-à-vis ISM’s inflationary one.
- [The Long Arm of Benjamin Franklin](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/03/the-long-arm-of-benjamin-franklin/) - In 1786, Benjamin Franklin invented a clever way for reaching and taking down books from hard-to-reach shelves. He explained in his autobiography: “Old men find it inconvenient to mount a ladder or steps for that purpose, their heads being sometimes subject to giddinesses, and their activity, with the steadiness of their joints being abated by
- [The Credit Cycle Will Be Amplified by AI Fallout](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/02/the-credit-cycle-will-be-amplified-by-ai-fallout/) - QUICK QUILL — The PPI for bankruptcy lawyers saw a record 6.0% sequential gain in January, tracking as it is with the third major wave of bankruptcies in the post-pandemic period. At the opposite end of the pricing spectrum, the PPI for System Software Publishing fell a record 12.2%, reflecting the declines in leveraged loans in the
- [H&M, Not the Clothing Brand](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/03/02/hm-not-the-clothing-brand/) - “Zoos are full, prisons are overflowing… oh my, how the world still dearly loves a cage.” Every Sunday since 1975, the tiny Galerie Cinema in Essen, Germany has played the Hal Ashby film Harold and Maude, from which the above quote originates. The not-exactly-a-rom-com features Harold, a 20-something young man who feels out of place
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 2.28.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/28/saturday-intelligence-briefing-2-28-26/)
- [Payroll Revisions Flash a Default Cycle Warning to Clueless Fed Officials](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/27/payroll-revisions-flash-a-default-cycle-warning-to-clueless-fed-officials/) - QUICK QUILL — A quick glance at Thursday’s jobless claims suggests the status quo of the U.S. labor market has not budged. The terrible history rewrite via yesterday’s Business Employment Dynamics report, however, cannot be brushed aside as old news. The new news revealed recessionary private and Private Core employment declines and widespread losses across both
- [Most Exclusive Reservations](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/27/most-exclusive-reservations/) - “Many travel three hours from Manhattan – some even fly in overnight – to pay $255 (before wine and tip) for the privilege of eating in the basement of a modest clapboard home in Earlton, N.Y. Formerly known as the Basement Bistro and now simply called Damon Baehrel, the 12-table restaurant has a five-year waiting
- [The Weekly Quill — The Guests of Perspicacity — The Post-Midterms American Economy](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/26/the-weekly-quill-the-guests-of-perspicacity-the-post-midterms-american-economy/)
- [Reiterating Transports Tactical](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/26/reiterating-transports-tactical/) - QUICK QUILL — Flashing a warning of what’s to come, Old Dominion’s stock rally looks overdone. According to the Richmond Fed, regional capacity pressures in the South Atlantic are easing. Gains in manufacturing job openings and job switcher wages could also prove temporary and tied to the restock narrative, especially with leisure and hospitality labor demand
- [From Husband, Wife and a Truck to National Carrier](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/26/from-husband-wife-and-a-truck-to-national-carrier/) - As the Great Depression was coming to a close, an American success story was just beginning. In 1934, Earl and Lillian Congdon founded Old Dominion Freight Line with a single truck running between Richmond and Norfolk, Virginia. Into the 1940s, World War II created a boom in traffic between the two cities allowing the company
- [Rising Job Insecurity Amplifies Cautious Consumer Discretionary Stance](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/25/rising-job-insecurity-amplifies-cautious-consumer-discretionary-stance/) - QUICK QUILL — Household labor pessimism, record low confidence for finding jobs and persistently weak service sector activity are feeding another theme: job insecurity. The Texas economy, about 10% of U.S. consumer spending, shows Dallas Fed’s current service wages near a cycle low, and Conference Board’s Texas consumer expectations indicating more angst than enthusiasm. Thus remains
- [The Longevity of the Moment](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/25/the-longevity-of-the-moment/) - As the USA men’s hockey team was winning gold last Sunday, Google searches for ‘USA jersey’ hit their peak. Monday, The New York Times ran a story titled, “Having trouble finding Team USA hockey jerseys to buy? You’re not alone.” The Times gave an assist to Darren Rovell of collectibles media site Cllct Media to
- [Restock vs. Chapter 11s Equals Treasury Market Tension](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/24/restock-vs-chapter-11s-equals-treasury-market-tension/) - QUICK QUILL — The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey reinforced the temporary nature of the restocking theme given the Future Workweek was the softest spot in Texas’ factory outlook. The lack of follow through for investment prospects from Current and Future capex gauges hammers home the restock theme to carve the short-run path for Texas industrial activity.
- [Everyone in the Shot](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/24/everyone-in-the-shot/) - Since the age of the caveman, the length of a human arm never grew to be long enough to capture everyone in the frame of a selfie. Apple engineers created a fix for this evolution malfunction. Late last year, the iPhone 17 introduced a way to get everyone in the shot, called ‘Center Stage for
- [Hostile U.S. Export Backdrop Future Impairs Consumer Discretionary](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/23/hostile-u-s-export-backdrop-future-impairs-consumer-discretionary/) - QUICK QUILL — Downward pressures on consumer purchasing power, current income assessments, top-earner consumer sentiment and a dwindling saving cushion make for a challenging outlook for consumer discretionary. Unfortunately, external demand is unlikely to pick up the slack as S&P Global’s ongoing drag in manufacturing and service export orders indicates. While the SCOTUS tariff ruling suggested
- [Dostoevsky, The Gambler](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/23/dostoevsky-the-gambler/) - “To go wrong in one’s own way is better than to go right in someone else’s.” Fyodor Dostoevsky, Crime and Punishment Now considered one of the greatest to ever pick up a pen, Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoevsky almost had his career cut tragically short. In 1849, more than a decade before publishing Crime and Punishment,
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 2.21.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/20/saturday-intelligence-briefing-2-21-26/)
- [Restocking Narrative Raises the Risk of Underperformance at the Long End of the Treasury Curve](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/20/restocking-narrative-raises-the-risk-of-underperformance-at-the-long-end-of-the-treasury-curve/) - QUICK QUILL — Strong import momentum, rising railroad container traffic, and increased labor demand for loading & stocking positions add to bottleneck risk from the third highest ever Future Delivery Time print in the long-running Philly Fed survey. These factors introduce inflationary risk. Trading this narrative would mean heightened awareness that higher transportation costs could find
- [Welcome to Echo Park](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/20/welcome-to-echo-park/) - This excerpt from John Wesley Powell’s staff profile at the U.S. Geological Survey described the adventures of being the first to successfully navigate the Grand Canyon by boat: “In the spring of 1869, the one-armed Civil War veteran led an expedition down the Colorado River into a great, unknown, uncharted territory. Ninety-nine days later, after
- [The Weekly Quill — Credit Event-uality](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/19/the-weekly-quill-credit-event-uality/)
- [Leading Chemicals in the Crosshairs](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/19/leading-chemicals-in-the-crosshairs/) - QUICK QUILL — Better-than-expected January U.S. industrial production was offset by downward revisions over the preceding four months. Stronger output doesn’t come as a surprise as the inventory restocking theme begins to play out. This said, we’ve got an eye on the upstream chemicals sector given its leading nature for industrial cycles. The tentative head-and-shoulders top
- [Introducing the Core Capex Straight](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/19/introducing-the-core-capex-straight/) - Poker’s first United States adoption landed in New Orleans. French settlers brought with them a card game that involved bluffing and betting called “Poque” in the early 1800s. The early game was played with a 20-card deck of only tens through aces. In this version, the highest possible hand was four aces or a full
- [Empire Doubles Down on the Inventory Restocking Narrative](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/18/empire-doubles-down-on-the-inventory-restocking-narrative/) - QUICK QUILL — Details of February’s Empire Manufacturing Survey reinforced the inventory restocking narrative that we tabled earlier this month. This ups our conviction for being tactically long the Dow Transports. TAKEAWAYS On a z-score basis, the average of NY Fed Mfg Future Delivery Times and Future Inventories was north of +1 in Q4 2025 and
- [Don’t Quit Your Day Job](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/18/dont-quit-your-day-job/) - Because most Winter Olympic sports outside hockey and figure skating offer little to no salary, many Team USA athletes balance their elite training with regular day jobs back home in the States. Here’s what some notable 2026 U.S. Winter Olympians do when they’re not on the ice or snow: Rich Ruohonen (curling) -- At 54,
- [Disinflationary Discretionary Travel and Used Vehicles Remove Core Inflation’s Threat](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/17/disinflationary-discretionary-travel-and-used-vehicles-remove-core-inflations-threat/) - QUICK QUILL — The cost of flying has become a pain point for consumers attempting to plan vacations, while hotel rate discounting illustrated the pain has been entrenched for nearly a year. A rollover in used vehicle pricing takes even more of an edge off the non-threatening core backdrop along with heavily weighted rents. All things
- [Fed Rate Cut Probability Not Mastering Lift](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/17/fed-rate-cut-probability-not-mastering-lift/) - Otto Lilienthal’s contribution to aviation history was so important that he went by dueling monikers: “Flying Man” and “Glider King.” Lilienthal connected America’s dreams of flight and the reality delivered by the Wright brothers. Before Orville and Wilbur touched a wrench to their Flyer, they were fascinated by news of Lilienthal’s daring leaps from his
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 2.14.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/14/saturday-intelligence-briefing-2-14-26/)
- [Rents Should Generate a Downside CPI Core Surprise](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/13/rents-should-generate-a-downside-cpi-core-surprise/) - QUICK QUILL — Existing home sales’ downside surprise is testing support and extending the housing slump. Both home-buying and home-selling conditions are not pointing to a breakout to the upside, and high-frequency mortgage applications suggest a relapse as February has gotten underway. Home pricing trends are subdued, and supply conditions indicate this may continue, indirectly influencing
- [The Turnaround](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/13/the-turnaround/) - Philadelphia sports fans are notoriously stereotyped. Like any fanbase, there are always some who will take things too far. Jon McCann used to fit that description by mocking athletes, including his infamous spat with Sixers player Ben Simmons. In 2023, newly signed $300 million Phillies shortstop Trea Turner was going through a massive batting slump,
- [The Weekly Quill — Eliminating Enemies — The U.S. Jobs Narrative Debunked](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/12/the-weekly-quill-eliminating-enemies-the-u-s-jobs-narrative-debunked/)
- [Premature to Call the All Clear for NFP](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/12/premature-to-call-the-all-clear-for-nfp/) - QUICK QUILL — Headline nonfarm payrolls have gone through a soft patch, but the private core is in a labor market recession. Amplifying this tension, recession-proof Education and Health Service employment just registered the best raw showing in three decades – a puzzling result at best, and a red herring at a minimum. As we look back
- [Mumbled Incoherence](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/12/mumbled-incoherence/) - “Since I’ve become a central banker, I’ve learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan, September 22, 1987 The Maestro delivered this line during his first semiannual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to the House Financial Services Committee after moving
- [Don’t Cry Over Spilled Milk](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/11/dont-cry-over-spilled-milk/) - February 11th celebrates national ‘Don’t Cry Over Spilled Milk Day’. The fine folks at nationaldaycalendar.com explain that this day “promotes a positive attitude even when things might not be going your way.” Anyone in markets knows there have been those days. The expression has been around for hundreds of years. The earliest documented version of
- [Investors Should Buckle Up for Nonfarm Payrolls Wednesday](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/11/investors-should-buckle-up-for-nonfarm-payrolls-wednesday/) - QUICK QUILL — Investors are primed for downside in January nonfarm payrolls. Weaker-than-expected results via yesterday’s Retail Sales and Employment Cost Index demonstrate that consumer demand is cooling and wage inflation eased ahead of January’s payroll numbers. Downward NFP revisions to both November and December would not surprise, but a potentially notably weaker path over the
- [Doves Have a Compelling Case Headed into the March FOMC](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/10/doves-have-a-compelling-case-headed-into-the-march-fomc/) - QUICK QUILL — Alternative labor demand metrics suggest downward pressures on employment from both small and large firms. Rising expectations for tighter credit indirectly flag lenders sniffing out a higher unemployment backdrop. With short- and medium-run inflation expectations contained and health care inflation expectations notably elevated – and likely to hit 2026 consumer purchasing power –
- [Where Small is Tall and Grande is Medium](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/10/where-small-is-tall-and-grande-is-medium/) - In 1983, Howard Schultz had an epiphany – an Italian epiphany. Then the Director of Marketing for Starbucks, Schultz traveled to Milan for a trade show. While walking the streets, he was taken by the local espresso bars that showed him how coffee was a daily social cornerstone, whose baristas knew their customers by name
- [The Labor Market Recession Has Become Personal](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/09/the-labor-market-recession-has-become-personal/) - QUICK QUILL — Nowhere is the K-shaped economy more evident than in the yawning gap between UMich survey respondents’ views of their personal finances gauged off their incomes and the scream upwards in average stock holdings for those who own assets. And it’s become personal, with Higher Unemployment Expectations’ unprecedented persistence now being punctuated by respondents’
- [Winners and Losers](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/09/winners-and-losers/) - “You can’t beat me because you are a loser and I am a winner, and that’s f-ing life!” The above quote comes from Bugonia, a highlight from this year’s slate of Best Picture nominees. Emma Stone plays a kidnapped pharmaceutical CEO, trying to figure out how to escape from her captor: a worker at
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 2.7.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/07/saturday-intelligence-briefing-2-7-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Return to Office in 2026? The QI Research Commercial Real Estate Outlook](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/05/the-weekly-quill-return-to-office-in-2026-the-qi-research-commercial-real-estate-outlook/)
- [Defensive Labor Signs](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/06/defensive-labor-signs/) - QUICK QUILL — Challenger’s micro guidance favors macro labor slack, especially since the January spread between job cut announcements and hiring plans has one rival from the Great Recession. Moreover, three-fourths of January layoff announcements were cycle-driven. A sizable amount of the pink slips was related to contract loss, suggesting they may not filter into jobless
- [Why January is January](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/06/why-january-is-january/) - January is named after Janus, the Roman god of beginnings and transitions. In January, we reflect on the year that’s ended while planning for the one that’s just getting started. Because of this, Janus was the perfect symbol for the turn of the year. He was famously depicted as having two faces, each looking in
- [GDP vs the Labor Market](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/05/gdp-vs-the-labor-market/) - QUICK QUILL — The restocking theme is not just a manufacturing story. The ISM Services report demonstrated that it’s an economy-wide phenomenon that could boost first-quarter growth estimates. This mini-cycle contrasts sharply with the much weaker underlying private core employment path reported by ADP. Investors will trade the restocking theme narrative; this favors a tactical long
- [J-Pow the Deadhead](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/05/j-pow-the-deadhead/) - The “Notorious J-Pow” is a rare D.C. figure who has achieved true internet lore status. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s standing as a lifelong fan of the Grateful Dead became mainstream in June 2023 after a blurry photo of him at a Dead & Company concert in Bristow, Virginia went viral following a post by
- [Alternative Data Validate Loosening Labor Market Conditions](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/04/alternative-data-validate-loosening-labor-market-conditions/) - QUICK QUILL — With official U.S. employment reports delayed, an alternative round up suggests a loosening labor picture. Big data preliminarily shows filing unemployment trending up sharply in February, suggesting rates traders and job cut gauges could play catch up. The November surge in WARN notices could have something to do with this, while the January
- [Cookie Dough Sweeter than Alternative Labor](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/04/cookie-dough-sweeter-than-alternative-labor/) - The formalized creation of chocolate chip cookie dough as a commercial treat has a sweet backstory. The breakthrough arrived in 1984 at the original Ben & Jerry's “Scoop Shop” in Burlington, Vermont. Tinkering was no small thing to the founders, Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield. They were happy to take ideas from their adoring public.
- [ISM Restock Not Renaissance](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/03/ism-restock-not-renaissance/) - QUICK QUILL — ISM’s upside was realized and then some, implying momentum for the Transports sector to take hold. Rising truckload rejections and improving rail traffic nod in that direction. However, ISM survey respondents noted that the January heat is seasonally supported by reorders that always recur at this time of year. The restocking theme suggests
- [Movable Launch Windows](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/03/movable-launch-windows/) - Weather is the ultimate “go/no-go” factor for space missions. Even a perfectly engineered rocket can be brought down by a single bolt of lightning or rogue high-altitude winds. Temperature matters too. Just ask NASA, which has the Artemis II moon mission on its calendar: “Over the past several days, engineers have been closely monitoring conditions
- [Industrials to Benefit from Near-Term Restocking](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/02/industrials-to-benefit-from-near-term-restocking/) - QUICK QUILL — The world of manufacturing is binary – either you restock or go out of business. Stocks have been so depleted that factories have no choice in the near term outside of increasing inventories. Ample evidence of this is seen in an aggregation of regional Federal Reserve District manufacturing surveys’ Future Inventories, which is
- [Goodbye to a Legendary Comedienne](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/02/02/goodbye-to-a-legendary-comedienne/) - Moira: “Next step is to… fold in the cheese.” David: “What does that mean? What does fold in the cheese mean?” Moira: “…You fold it in.” David: “I understand that. But how do you fold it? Do you fold it in half like a piece of paper and drop it in the pot? Or, what
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 1.31.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/31/saturday-intelligence-briefing-1-31-26/)
- [Consumer Sector Vulnerability Reinforced](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/30/consumer-sector-vulnerability-reinforced/) - QUICK QUILL — Whether or not to file for unemployment benefits is a numbers game that covers only one-third of U.S. household take-home pay. Workarounds are rising for consumers to make ends meet. However, the nonfinancial corporate sector – half the U.S. economy – is more focused on labor cost cutting than labor cost expansion. It
- [Unemployment Insurance, Then and Now](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/30/unemployment-insurance-then-and-now/) - “At the same time that solutions were being sought for the problems of people reaching old age without income and savings in the depressed American economy of the 1930’s, another income- maintenance problem was being intensively scrutinized – unemployment among able-bodied workers of all ages. If poverty in old age represented a burden no longer
- [The Weekly Quill — Burry’s Acceptance — Grieving the Death of Price Discovery](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/29/the-weekly-quill-burrys-acceptance-grieving-the-death-of-price-discovery/)
- [Fed Pauses Beckoning Larger Doses of Easing in Shorter Order than Anticipated](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/29/fed-pauses-beckoning-larger-doses-of-easing-in-shorter-order-than-anticipated/) - QUICK QUILL — The four largest U.S. states show intensifying consumer pessimism on the economy -- inversions between employment and unemployment trends validate embedded labor concerns. At the state level, job losses are widening, especially in the cyclically sensitive private core industries, and the unemployment rate could soon reflect the ongoing loosening after it declined one
- [Fed, Are You Listening?](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/29/fed-are-you-listening/) - The distinction between hearing and listening resides at the intersection of passive perception and active engagement. Hearing is a physiological process, an involuntary and constant reception of sound waves. We know it as the hum of a refrigerator, or the distant blaring of a train horn the brain acknowledges but filters out as background noise.
- [Plunging Consumer Confidence and Employee Sentiment Are Bearish for Travel and Tourism](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/28/plunging-consumer-confidence-and-employee-sentiment-are-bearish-for-travel-and-tourism/) - QUICK QUILL — The surprise decline in January Conference Board consumer confidence brought with it a decisive weakening in current and future assessments of the U.S. job market. The Labor Differential fell to a point that’s accompanied past recessions ADP’s Employment Motivation and Commitment index showed a sharp and broad-based drop in sentiment and employees staying
- [Hurling the Holy Hand Grenade](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/28/hurling-the-holy-hand-grenade/) - “And Saint Attila raised the hand grenade up on high, saying, ‘O Lord, bless this thy hand grenade, that with it thou mayst blow thine enemies to tiny bits. in thy mercy’ And the Lord did grin. And the people did feast upon the lambs, and sloths, and carp, and anchovies, and orangutans, and breakfast
- [While Lone Star State Optimism Flashed, this Mega Labor Market Only Flagged Distress](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/27/while-lone-star-state-optimism-flashed-this-mega-labor-market-only-flagged-distress/) - QUICK QUILL — Texas manufacturers are looking to improve profit margins against a better supply-demand picture. Lone Star production improvement and national core capex volume gains should be guarded and couched with caution if the softness of the Dallas Fed manufacturing Future Workweek and Current Backlogs are any guide. The broad labor picture in Texas also
- [Washington Crossed the Delaware Upstream](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/27/washington-crossed-the-delaware-upstream/) - “The final weeks of 1776 were discouraging for Patriots, to say the least. Having lost the Battle of Long Island and Forts Washington and Lee along the Hudson River, Continental troops retreated across New Jersey to the relative safety of Pennsylvania. Morale plummeted during these bleak days, and troops deserted in droves, having lost confidence
- [Fresh Data on the Labor Market Flag Further Weakening the Fed Will Be Compelled to Dismiss](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/26/fresh-data-on-the-labor-market-flag-further-weakening-the-fed-will-be-compelled-to-dismiss/) - QUICK QUILL — UMich Higher Unemployment Expectations have been north of the 60%-line for six months running, matching the sole precedent of March 2009. In that episode, the unemployment rate had risen by more than one percentage point six months later, which would land today’s rate at 5.5%, defying the Fed’s year-end projections. The news households
- [Sunset on Sundance](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/26/sunset-on-sundance/) - This weekend marked the beginning of the annual Sundance Film Festival, where tens of thousands of entertainment industry professionals, Hollywood A-listers, and media personnel descend upon the tiny town of Park City, Utah. Today, Sundance is a place for the biggest stars to premiere projects, but the festival was once a far less corporate and
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 1.24.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/24/saturday-intelligence-briefing-1-24-26/)
- [Household Budget Stress Rises Further](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/23/household-budget-stress-rises-further/) - QUICK QUILL — An NBER varsity recession indicator -- real personal income less transfers -- eased to a rate that’s accompanied every recession since 1960. Waning purchasing power is occurring alongside a decline in the personal saving rate, thinning households’ budgetary cushions amid rising unemployment and wage disinflation. Consumer discretionary capitulations are manifest in a quickening
- [Fuller, Go Easy on the Pepsi!](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/23/fuller-go-easy-on-the-pepsi/) - Younger brothers always have a habit of getting under their older brothers’ skin. It even happens when art imitates life on the big screen. The antagonist: Kieran Culkin. The target: Macaulay Culkin. In the 1990 Christmas classic Home Alone, a recurring bed-wetting threat centers on Kevin McCallister’s younger cousin, Fuller (Kieran). Early in the film,
- [The Weekly Quill — OPEN LETTER II — PUBLIC](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-ii-public/)
- [The Weekly Quill — OPEN LETTER II](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-ii/)
- [Fed Officials Will Be Forced to Play a Mean Game of Catch-Up](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/fed-officials-will-be-forced-to-play-a-mean-game-of-catch-up/) - QUICK QUILL — Big declines in Pending Home Sales and the CEO outlook perpetuate top-line economic concerns. Data center construction remains a plus, but its expansion has slowed against a persistent and growing contraction in the remainder of the nonresidential construction space. Inflation pressures are easing from Truflation’s cycle low and the Atlanta Fed’s business (cost)
- [The Great Piano Drop of 1968](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-great-piano-drop-of-1968/) - On April 28, 1968, the “Great Piano Drop” made Duvall, Washington a counter-culture history exemplar. Conceived by Larry Van Over and Paul Dorpat, the event was born from a desire to hear the transcendental sound of a piano falling from a great height. According to northwestprimetime.com, “The Piano Drop was an add-on to a benefit
- [Something’s Got to Give Between Investors’ Short- and Long-term Rate Expectations](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/21/somethings-got-to-give-between-investors-short-and-long-term-rate-expectations/) - QUICK QUILL — According to our proprietary calculations, the fear of JGB yields becoming unhinged has lifted the U.S. 10-year term premium. The combined tail risks of ‘geopolitical conflict’ and ‘disorderly rise in bond yields’ should keep term premia underpinned. ZEW showed this makes for crowded expectations that long-term yields will keep rising. At the short
- [Godzilla vs. Wall Street](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/21/godzilla-vs-wall-street/) - Merriam-Webster defines portmanteau as “a word or part of a word made by combining the spellings and meanings of two or more other words or word parts.” English author Lewis Carroll coined the term in his 1871 novel Through the Looking-Glass in a conversation between Alice and Humpty Dumpty. In the story, Alice is puzzled
- [Homebuilders Combatting Labor Market Recession](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/20/homebuilders-combatting-labor-market-recession/) - QUICK QUILL — Homebuilder sentiment has diverged noticeably from factory output. While the fall in mortgage rates has supported the future sales outlook, the current sales environment appears to be more influenced by economic uncertainty (read: labor market recession) than by mortgage rates or home prices. The persistently rising path of the unemployment rate for the
- [Two Trains Leave Chicago…](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/20/two-trains-leave-chicago/) - At 9:00 AM, two trains leave Chicago’s Union Station, embarking on cross-country journeys in opposite directions. Heading east toward New York City is the Lake Shore Limited, maintaining a steady cruising speed of 60 mph as it cuts through the industrial corridors of Indiana. Simultaneously, the California Zephyr departs toward San Francisco, traversing the tracks
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 1.19.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/19/saturday-intelligence-briefing-1-19-26/)
- [The Weekly Quill — To Be Continuated…  The Incestuousness in Private](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/18/the-weekly-quill-to-be-continuated-the-incestuousness-in-private/)
- [Upside U.S. Headline Data Surprises Mask Underlying Slack](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/16/upside-u-s-headline-data-surprises-mask-underlying-slack/) - QUICK QUILL — Thursday’s better-than-expected U.S. economic data bear-flattered the Treasury curve. Beneath the headlines of jobless claims and Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing was a common theme of slack. This runs counter to the bond market’s one-day reaction. Moreover, from one chemical hub to another, the Philly Fed’s read through to Germany suggests cyclical downward
- [Hippocrates Meet Gilroy](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/16/hippocrates-meet-gilroy/) - “Let food be thy medicine, and medicine be thy food” is attributed to Hippocrates, the ancient Greek physician and “Father of Medicine.” While the exact phrase does not appear in the Hippocratic Corpus (collection of early Greek medical texts), it likely was an outgrowth of a condensed version of the following ideas found in his
- [Core Disinflation Risks Rising](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/15/core-disinflation-risks-rising/) - QUICK QUILL — Real retail sales eased below the key 1% year-over-year threshold that’s accompanied past recessions. The bigger news, in our view, comes from the record margin compression emanating from distribution channels, according to the PPI. This sets up a cautious supply-building environment, despite the December Logistics Managers’ Index just reporting record-low inventory levels. Rising
- [Judging Tipping Points](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/15/judging-tipping-points/) - Any friendly neighborhood physicist would tell you that the key to an ice skater’s ability to stay upright is masterfully managing centers of mass and frictional forces. A skate blade may look thin and unstable, but the bottom is a concave “hollow.” Two sharp edges bite into the ice, preventing the skate from sliding sideways
- [The Fed Has an Elegant Solution to Arrest its Political Turmoil](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/14/the-fed-has-an-elegant-solution-to-arrest-its-political-turmoil/) - QUICK QUILL — Core inflation eased but didn’t materially shift January FOMC rate cut expectations. Moreover, the price jump for the Food Away from Home CPI – a record for any December – could generate a noticeable upward influence on the Core PCE price index. The hit to consumer purchasing power is impacting everyone’s budget across
- [Go Ahead (CPI), Make My Day](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/14/go-ahead-cpi-make-my-day/) - Every great line has a great backstory. When independent filmmaker Charles Pierce was co-writing the story for Clint Eastwood’s 1983 action thriller Sudden Impact, real-life inspiration came into play behind the film’s signature line: “Go ahead, make my day.” According to Pierce, the genesis originated during his teen years in Arkansas. Collider.com explained, “the line
- [Construction Job Cycle Facing Greater Challenges](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/13/construction-job-cycle-facing-greater-challenges/) - QUICK QUILL — A top is taking shape across three key cogs of construction industry employment. The down cycle in housing starts and NFIB labor gauges suggest it will persist in residential construction, while the data center boom has not been enough to arrest compression on the nonresidential side. Moreover, Dallas Fed’s Banking Conditions Survey revealed
- [Construction Cycles are Long, But Not the Longest](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/13/construction-cycles-are-long-but-not-the-longest/) - The universe’s longest known cycle belongs to the incredibly slow radioactive decay of Xenon-124. With an estimated half-life a trillion times the universe’s current age, it’s the slowest process ever measured by direct observation. Who did the measuring? A scientist bored with watching paint dry or snails migrate? In fact, the half-life determination was a
- [The Weekly Quill — A Paradigm Risk Shift at U.S. Life Insurers](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/10/the-weekly-quill-a-paradigm-risk-shift-at-u-s-life-insurers/)
- [Labor Market Recession Manifest](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/12/labor-market-recession-manifest/) - QUICK QUILL — The labor market recession worsened at year-end and has pushed consumers’ assessments of their financial well-being to record low levels in UMich data to 1978. Long-term unemployment has also crossed into territory solely associated with deep recessions. Federal Reserve policymakers, focused solely as they insist on the unemployment rate, will pay a steep
- [Queen of the Extras](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/12/queen-of-the-extras/) - “Always the bridesmaid, never the bride” is an apt characterization of Bess Flowers’ career in Hollywood. The actress frequently shared the screen with heavyweights like Joan Crawford, Bette Davis, and Lana Turner, but never became a household name. Known as the “Queen of Hollywood Extras,” Flowers starred in 23 Best Picture nominees and 5 winners,
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing —  1.11.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/10/saturday-intelligence-briefing-1-11-26/)
- [Cost Cutting and Hiring Freeze Themes Could Undercut the Climb in Payroll Expectations](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/09/cost-cutting-and-hiring-freeze-themes-could-undercut-the-climb-in-payroll-expectations/) - QUICK QUILL — We’re struggling to get bulled up over today’s nonfarm payrolls. Granted, Revelio Labs reported a 71,000 December gain, in line with the 70,000 consensus, and Bloomberg’s whisper number has climbed from a low of 44,000 at the start of the week to 65,000 going in. However, other Thursday reports showed labor reflecting cost
- [How’s That for Entertainment?](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/09/hows-that-for-entertainment/) - Solo: [to Victoria over ship-to-ship radio] I see one flaw in that plan. Victoria: Entertain me. Solo: While you’ve been telling me how dangerous you are, we’ve been locking on to your radio signal. Now we have your general location. Victoria: It won’t help you much. We’ll be gone in five minutes. Solo: I haven’t
- [Employment Disappointment Offers Belly Treasury Curve Opportunity](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/08/employment-disappointment-offers-belly-treasury-curve-opportunity/) - QUICK QUILL — On the surface, yesterday’s U.S. economic calendar generated mixed employment news. However, private core employment from ADP and BLS’s state employment figures are concerning while state payroll breadth metrics raise red flags. With job openings falling more than half a million in the two months ended November and our Cyclical Unemployment Rate Guide
- [Deuces Are Wild](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/08/deuces-are-wild/) - “Deuces Are Wild” sprang from the poker world in the early 20th century. Because ‘2’ is the lowest-ranking card in a standard deck, making it “wild” completely changes the strategy and value of the worst cards in the game. While the phrase was born at the card table, it became a staple of American pop
- [Downside Persists in S&P Global and NACM](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/07/downside-persists-in-sp-global-and-nacm/) - QUICK QUILL — S&P Global flagged rising output prices encountering faltering demand and contracting employment in the key services sector. NACM corroborated the signal as sales across the factory and services sectors saw sizeable declines. Credit managers’ leading gauges for new credit applications also indicated a heightened level of cautiousness regarding future growth. Taken together, sell-side
- [Spackling from Bayonne](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/07/spackling-from-bayonne/) - Bayonne, New Jersey, the peninsula city that borders New York Harbor “came of age” with a gritty industrial history. By the early 20th century, Bayonne was one of the largest oil refining centers in the world and the hub for John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil. During World War II, the Bayonne Navy Yard served as
- [Fade ISM New Orders-to-Inventories Spread as Manufacturing Slump Extends](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/06/fade-ism-new-orders-to-inventories-spread-as-manufacturing-slump-extends/) - QUICK QUILL — The ISM report provided superficial support for equity bulls as the New Orders-Inventories spread returned to positive territory in December. Details, however, revealed that the spread was a false positive with Inventories contracting at a more rapid clip than Orders. Elsewhere, we question the relative bullish message for New Orders from the short-run
- [Just the Facts, Ma’am](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/06/just-the-facts-maam-2/) - “Ladies and gentlemen: the story you are about to hear is true. Only the names have been changed to protect the innocent.” Jack Webb wasn’t just the star of the hit television series Dragnet, he was also the creator. The original NBC radio show aired for the first time on June 3, 1949, featuring Webb
- [Global Trade Poised to Continue Contracting in 2026](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/05/global-trade-poised-to-continue-contracting-in-2026/) - QUICK QUILL — Despite the yuan breaking the ‘7-barrier’ for the first time since 2023, Chinese manufacturers are waxing cautiously and flagging intentions to reduce headcount. Factory counterparts in Europe voice hope for increased investment. A retrenchment in German output, with 41% planning job cuts, and a slide to a seven-month low in intermediate goods bellwether
- [Around the World in 13 Languages](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/05/around-the-world-in-13-languages/) - Musically talented we are not at QI. We can only imagine how challenging it is to create an album that captivates listeners. Spanish pop star Rosalía took that challenge to new heights with her most recent record, Lux (the Latin word for “light”), singing in 13 different languages. The album explores themes of spirituality and
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 1.3.26](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/03/saturday-intelligence-briefing-1-3-26/)
- [Navigating Claims Preps Payroll Disappointment](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/02/navigating-claims-preps-payroll-disappointment/) - QUICK QUILL — “Beats” for initial jobless claims have helped lower January Fed rate cut expectations. However, the noise from Thanksgiving and Christmas weeks shows the smoother four-week trend is rising, not falling. As we look to January, typical not seasonally adjusted patterns (up in first two weeks, down in weeks three and four) could be
- [Loud Reputations](https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/02/loud-reputations/) - Fun Fact: Until the early 2000s, there was an NFL rule where the home team could be penalized if the crowd was too loud. In 1990, referees at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium threatened to penalize the Chiefs and take away a timeout because the fans were making it impossible for visiting Broncos quarterback John Elway
- [Chicago and Dallas Regions Amplify Disinflationary Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/31/chicago-and-dallas-regions-amplify-disinflationary-risks/) - QUICK QUILL — Chicago and Dallas regions revealed upstream and downstream disinflationary evidence, indicating the production slump should continue and stagnation is present in retail and service sectors. Truflation’s march toward a 2%-handle is bringing one- and two-year inflation swaps with it and adds to the regional factors that should spur the Fed to additional easing
- [Proverbs and Disinflation in the New Year](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/31/proverbs-and-disinflation-in-the-new-year/) - One of the oldest English proverbs – “You can lead a horse to water, but can’t make it drink” – dates back 850 years. Its origins lie in practical animal husbandry. Unlike other livestock, horses are notoriously stubborn and sensitive, hence the mantra. The earliest recorded version appeared in a collection of sermons known as
- [Merry Christmas Vacation](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/30/merry-christmas-vacation/) - ELLEN: Aren’t you having any breakfast? CLARK: Not in the mood. ELLEN: What are you looking at? CLARK: Oh…The silent majesty of a winter’s morn. The clean, cool, chill of holiday air. And an a***ole in his bathrobe emptying a chemical toilet into my sewer. COUSIN EDDIE: [sees Clark at the window, toasts him with
- [Texas Factory Recession Blueprints Additional Fed Cuts](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/30/texas-factory-recession-blueprints-additional-fed-cuts/) - QUICK QUILL — The disappointing Dallas Fed manufacturing survey added to the upstream slack theme manifest in disappointments via other December Fed regional industrial surveys. A record negative swing in capacity utilization and compression in backlogs were buttressed by evidence that the margin squeeze vice is tightening. Defying OBBB hopes for the New Year, all signs
- [2026: The Year U.S. Housing Capitulates](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/29/2026-the-year-u-s-housing-capitulates/) - QUICK QUILL — If 2024 was the year the U.S. housing market was frozen, 2025 was the year of the initial thaw. A quicker pace of increase in the unemployment rate should make 2026 the year of capitulation, as was evident in the collapse in plans to buy carpet via last week’s December Conference Board Consumer
- [Remember the Night](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/29/remember-the-night/) - While we’re year-round lovers of the TV channel Turner Classic Movies here at QI, we are especially thankful for it around the holidays. When we’ve had our fill of “the usuals” – It’s A Wonderful Life, Elf, Christmas Vacation, A Charlie Brown Christmas. TCM’s deeper value is its offerings of lesser-known gems. Enter one Remember
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 12.27.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/27/saturday-intelligence-briefing-12-27-25/)
- [Consumer Confidence Supports a Bull Steepener](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/26/consumer-confidence-supports-a-bull-steepener/) - QUICK QUILL — Subscription cancellations are trending and reinforce a higher jobless trend. Conference Board’s December Consumer Confidence survey added to this theme as unemployment leader, Jobs Hard to Get, reached a cycle high, and Fewer Jobs (i.e., layoffs announcements) exceeded Jobs Plentiful (i.e., job openings). The Labor Differential (Plentiful less Hard to Get) continues to
- [Subscription Prescription](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/26/subscription-prescription/) - A June 2025 survey by Self Financial showed that Americans are paying for fewer subscriptions relative to the last two years. The research asked 1,138 adults about their monthly habits and spending. On average, households now have 2.8 subscriptions compared with 4.1 in 2024 and 4.4 in 2023. Monthly fees dropped as well. People spent
- [Ks in Investment and Consumer Spending Cloud the Outlook](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/24/ks-in-investment-and-consumer-spending-cloud-the-outlook/) - QUICK QUILL — The ‘K’-shaped AI vs. non-AI investment profile was perpetuated in the “old” third-quarter GDP release. Even reports on durable goods and industrial production showed nominal core capex orders on the top of the ‘K’ and manufacturing output drawing the bottom of the ‘K’. Consumer spending’s different patterns showed lags from Autos, Home Goods
- [Silent-Ks in Improv, Not the U.S. Economy](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/24/silent-ks-in-improv-not-the-u-s-economy/) - “Good evening, and welcome to the six o’clock news. I’m your anchor Oswald Thatendswald. Our top story today, convicted hit man Jimmy ‘Two Shoes’ McClarty confessed today that he was once hired to beat a cow to death in a rice field using only two small porcelain figures. Police admit this may be the first
- [Hawkish December FOMC Dissenters Ignore Dovish Data, Setting Up 2026 Rate Cuts](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/23/hawkish-chicago-and-kansas-city-december-dissenting-votes-ignore-dovish-data-setting-up-2026-rate-cuts/) - QUICK QUILL — Monday’s light U.S. calendar allowed for a deep dive into the (older) Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the (newer) Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions as well as last Friday’s Kansas City Fed Services survey. A ‘no-worries’ conclusion from the former survey’s three-month moving average was defied by the bad breadth of
- [No Football Gods’ Magic Needed to Question Dissenters](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/23/no-football-gods-magic-needed-to-question-dissenters/) - With 3:27 left in the fourth quarter of last Saturday’s 213th all-time matchup in the oldest NFL rivalry, the Chicago Bears were trailing the Green Bay Packers by 10 and had a 0.9% probability of winning, according to ESPN Analytics. The Bears would cut the lead to 7 with a field goal at 1:59 and
- [The BLS’ Latest Annual Payrolls Revision and UMich’s Final December Take on Consumer Sentiment Confirm a Labor Market Recession](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/22/the-bls-latest-annual-payrolls-revision-and-umichs-final-december-take-on-consumer-sentiment-confirm-a-labor-market-recession/) - QUICK QUILL — According to last week’s BLS release of the Business Employment Dynamics in the 12 months ended March 31, 2025, the spread between firms growing their workforces and freezing hiring/shrinking headcount slowed to a 10,000-monthly run rate in 2025’s first quarter. That this rate inverted in this year’s first three months with the imputed
- [Chiseling Marble](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/22/chiseling-marble/) - In 2016, after decades of negotiations, the Torlonia family reached an agreement with the Italian government to publicly exhibit its collection of Ancient Roman sculptures. The collection, the world’s largest private holding, which rivals the Vatican’s, had long been in storage. In 2020, after some restoration work financed by fashion house Bulgari, the marbles opened
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 12.20.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/20/saturday-intelligence-briefing-12-20-25/)
- [Warts and All, the CPI Green Lights the Fed](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/19/warts-and-all-the-cpi-green-lights-the-fed/) - QUICK QUILL — An incomplete survey period for the CPI made for dismissive conclusions during yesterday’s trading sessions after core service inflation surprised to the downside. However, the report should not be set aside due to missing data. The most important takeaway was in a further easing in underlying Supercore and Ultracore inflation, both of which
- [Evolution of the Little Black Book](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/19/evolution-of-the-little-black-book/) - The term “little black book” has evolved from a tool of state-sanctioned punishment into a shorthand for modern dating. Its roots date to the 1400s, originally referring to official registers of people who’d committed crimes or fallen out of favor. The most notorious historical “Black Book” belonged to King Henry VIII in 1536. It documented
- [New York is High on the Watch List for Labor Strife and Proxies National Underperformance](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/18/new-york-is-high-on-the-watch-list-for-labor-strife-and-proxies-national-underperformance/) - QUICK QUILL — CFOs have an average view of the economy. Architects, on the other hand, remain decidedly downbeat. Since this industry has a large concentration in the New York Fed District, the ongoing weakness in growth prospects across the local service sector has architects’ stamp all over it. The New York Fed services report also
- [Pressing Concerns](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/18/pressing-concerns/) - Founded in 1904 by Syracuse tailor Adoniram J. Hoffman, the Hoffman Pressing Machine Company transformed garment care from a manual craft into an industrial powerhouse. Sparked by a personal arm injury that made hand-ironing impossible, Hoffman’s invention, the first mechanical steam press, revolutionized the trade by allowing operators to use foot pedals and leverage to
- [The Weekly Quill — The QI Research 2026 Outlook](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/18/the-weekly-quill-the-qi-research-2026-outlook/)
- [Downside Employment Risks Transitioning to Upside Unemployment Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/17/downside-employment-risks-transitioning-to-upside-unemployment-risks/) - QUICK QUILL — Recession was manifest in November’s jobs data. Near-record downward payroll revisions in 2025’s first nine months, private core job losses across managers and workers, unemployment flows outrunning that of payrolls, and the Household Survey making plain that workers are scrambling for income all point to a rapidly unfolding income shock. A spillover to
- [Overreactions Need Not Apply](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/17/overreactions-need-not-apply/) - DENVER, CO – The panic surrounding the infamous 1938 Halloween Eve broadcast of H.G. Wells’s The War of the Worlds escalated today as Denver resident John Trigg filed a lawsuit against the Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) and radio impresario Orson Welles. Trigg is seeking $50,000 in damages, alleging the realistic, fake-news bulletins describing a Martian
- [Disinflation Spilling into Multiple Sectors Should Speed the Fed Easing Cycle](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/16/disinflation-spilling-into-multiple-sectors-should-speed-the-fed-easing-cycle/) - QUICK QUILL — Margin expansion seems unlikely for New York Fed factories and U.S. home builders, creating both upstream and downstream disinflationary impulses. Decelerating withheld income tax receipts amplifies the downside via cooling labor costs. This backs our call for the Fed being forced to keep cutting next month. TAKEAWAYS The NY Fed Mfg New Orders-Inventories
- [Embrace the Chaos](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/16/embrace-the-chaos/) - Vinny: “Does that freight train come through here at 5:00 A.M. every morning?” Clerk: “No, sir, it's very unusual.” Vinny (the next day): “Yesterday you told me that freight train hardly ever comes through here at 5:00 A.M. in the morning.” Clerk: “I know. She's supposed to come through at ten after 4:00.” Vincent LaGuardia
- [Beware Headline NFP Head Fakes and Focus on Revisions](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/15/beware-headline-nfp-head-fakes-and-focus-on-revisions/) - QUICK QUILL — Powell acknowledged recession in his post-FOMC presser given historical job-loss streaks policymakers presume began in April. Given the developments since then, no evidence points to this losing streak being broken upon revision. The Fed is as behind the curve headed into the January FOMC as it was prior to the December FOMC, when
- [Saturn Returning](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/15/saturn-returning/) - “When we’re all born, Saturn’s somewhere, and the Saturn cycle takes around 29 years. That’s when we’ve got to wake up and smell the coffee, because, if we’ve just been sort of, relying on our cleverness, or you know, just kind of floating along, Saturn comes along and hits you over the head, and says,
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 12.13.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/13/saturday-intelligence-briefing-12-13-25/)
- [Jobless Claims Will Be Next Week’s Second-Biggest Focal Point After Tuesday’s Jobs Data](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/12/jobless-claims-will-be-next-weeks-second-biggest-focal-point-after-tuesdays-jobs-data/) - QUICK QUILL — Jobless claims have tended to be dismissed by market participants during the historically volatile end-of-year holiday period. The December 6th spike, nonetheless bears close watching, especially if it isn’t revised down materially. Next week’s December 13th figure that coincides with the employment survey week also bears close watching for an upside surprise. “Old”
- [Searching for Old Faithful](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/12/searching-for-old-faithful/) - Washburn, Langford and Doane easily could be mistaken for a law firm today. But in 1870, these three were central figures in a second expedition to explore areas that would become Yellowstone National Park. Surveyor-General Henry Washburn and Montana politician/businessman Nathaniel Langford were accompanied by military escort Lt. Gustavus Doane. The explorers traveled to Tower
- [Tactical Opportunity for Treasury Bulls](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/11/tactical-opportunity-for-treasury-bulls/) - QUICK QUILL — The Fed’s hawkish cut, with two dissents for no change (compared to one in October), was overturned by Powell’s dovish job comments in the presser. Our cyclical unemployment guide suggests the rate is closer to 5%, and that wage pressures will ease through 2026’s first half. Sluggish labor demand and a less encouraging
- [Sherpas Guiding the Dismal Science](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/11/sherpas-guiding-the-dismal-science/) - On March 18, 1923, The New York Times ran a story entitled, “Climbing Mount Everest is Work for Supermen.” British mountaineer George Mallory, who manned the first two expeditions toward the summit in 1921 and 1922 was asked: Why do you want to climb Mount Everest? His short answer: “Because it’s there.” These words became
- [The Weekly Quill — OPEN LETTER](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/)
- [A Hawkish Fed Cut Would Be a Mistake](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/a-hawkish-fed-cut-would-be-a-mistake/) - QUICK QUILL — Yesterday’s backup in Treasury yields was highlighted by the largest monthly gain in current NFIB prices and an upside surprise in JOLTS job openings. Details in these reports and others from national payroll providers, however, suggest small business optimism to expand has faded and that private core job losses on Main Street and
- [The 1932 Emu War](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-1932-emu-war/) - On this day in 1932, the Australian government officially surrendered after a month-long battle against thousands of large flightless birds. That year, a drought had caused an unusually large emu migration, leading to massive crop damage in Western Australia. Farming in the region was dominated by World War I veterans, and while they were allowed
- [The Weekly Quill — OPEN LETTER](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/09/the-weekly-quill-open-letter/)
- [New York Fed Survey Builds the Case for 2026 Rate Cuts](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/09/new-york-fed-survey-builds-the-case-for-2026-rate-cuts/) - QUICK QUILL — The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed multiple disinflationary risks, household balance sheet pressures and future hits to consumer purchasing power. While inflation expectations remain sticky around the 3% level, the aforementioned factors offer convincing evidence that the Fed should not be three-and-done in this phase of the easing cycle. TAKEAWAYS
- [Before There Was Social Media, There Were Influencers](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/09/before-there-was-social-media-there-were-influencers/) - Rock stars are easy to name. Musical influencers, not so much. Tapping into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame (HoF), the Musical Influence Award has been handed out since its first class of inductees in 1986. In 2024, John Mayall received said recognition as the “Godfather of British Blues.” The HoF website described Mayall
- [Save the Stock Market, the U.S. Economy is Caving to Pressures](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/08/save-the-stock-market-the-u-s-economy-is-caving-to-pressures/) - QUICK QUILL — At -6, views of current household finances vis-à-vis income ventured off lows in UMich’s preliminary take on consumer sentiment but remain well below their long-term average of +6. Perceived expectations between inflation-adjusted income gains and stock market gains mark a record diversion, evidence of the growing divide between the real economy for most
- [The Most-Hated Movie Mogul](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/08/the-most-hated-movie-mogul/) - In 1923, four brothers—Harry, Albert, Sam, and Jack—set their sights on making it big in Hollywood. After founding Warner Bros. Pictures, Inc., they quickly found their first big “star”: a German Shepherd named “Rin Tin Tin.” The dog starred in silent pictures for the studio, became a sensation, and helped keep Warner Bros. afloat in
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 12.6.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/06/saturday-intelligence-briefing-12-6-25/)
- [The Weekly Quill — From Track 61 to the Presidential Suite](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/05/the-weekly-quill-from-track-61-to-the-presidential-suite/)
- [On-the-ground Real Time Data Say to Fade the Thanksgiving Dip in Jobless Claims](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/05/on-the-ground-real-time-data-say-to-fade-the-thanksgiving-dip-in-jobless-claims/) - QUICK QUILL — The narrative helping push bond yields higher yesterday was captured by initial claims’ surprise drop under 200,000. At this technically and fundamentally overvalued level, the risk for a correction higher is material. An aggregation of labor data via five alternative sources concurs. For Treasury bulls, this presents a tactical opportunity to ‘buy the
- [Road Tripping ‘Round the U.S. Labor Market](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/05/road-tripping-round-the-u-s-labor-market/) - With temperatures plunging in the Lower 48, our minds are longing for warmer days conducive to the proverbial road trip. Five come to mind. Historic Route 66 from Illinois to California, known as the “Mother Road,” offers a deep dive into classic Americana, passing through eight states and featuring quirky roadside attractions and vintage motels.
- [Consumer Spending in the Crosshairs for Downgrades](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/04/consumer-spending-in-the-crosshairs-for-downgrades/) - QUICK QUILL — ADP, ISM Services and Cox Automotive’s Dealer Sentiment triple tag-teamed to hammer home downside risks to labor, inflation and consumer spending. With less than a week until the December FOMC, the January meeting’s near-30% rate-cut probability is too low. TAKEAWAYS Core ADP payrolls, which exclude Education and Healthcare, fell by 64,000 in November,
- [Rare as a Rat in the Kitchen…Cooking](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/04/rare-as-a-rat-in-the-kitchencooking/) - “In many ways, the work of a critic is easy. We risk very little, yet enjoy a position over those who offer up their work and their selves to our judgment. We thrive on negative criticism, which is fun to write and to read. But the bitter truth we critics must face is that, in
- [Credit Managers Flag Service Sector Risks that Defy Wealth Effect Spending](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/03/credit-managers-flag-service-sector-risks-that-defy-wealth-effect-spending/) - QUICK QUILL — Credit managers validated economic expansion, but credit concerns in the labor-intensive service sector emphasize ongoing risks to employment. The absence of downside risk from the government shutdown explains the bounce in RCM/TIPP’s December Economic Optimism Index. Moreover, the divergence between investors’ optimism and non-investors’ pessimism for personal finances flags the linchpin of financial
- [From Centennial to Closing Time](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/03/from-centennial-to-closing-time/) - Being thrown into Long Island Sound and told to “SWIM!” is not a methodology I’d recommend. I would know as that is how my father, Vincent Anthony DiMartino, introduced me to water. I’ve feared the ocean ever since, but I will never not smile looking back at the after-water thrill of a jaunt to Jimmies
- [ISM and the Bankruptcy Pile on to the Disinflation Narrative](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/02/ism-and-the-bankruptcy-pile-on-to-the-disinflation-narrative/) - QUICK QUILL — Disinflation was on full display in the ISM via easing bottlenecks and waning capacity and labor pressures. November’s cycle high in Bloomberg’s large bankruptcy count adds to our conviction. Higher equity volatility and a steeper yield curve would be two signs of investor capitulation to these realities. TAKEAWAYS ISM Mfg Supplier Deliveries fell
- [From Rubbernecking to Fading Bottlenecks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/02/from-rubbernecking-to-fading-bottlenecks/) - WE never crane our necks to see the wreckage. So why should rubbernecking be the bane of our collective existence? What if “nothing to see here” screens were instead employed to lead fewer drivers to slow down? A 2013 study conducted by the University of Central Florida put the idea to the test. A group
- [German Economy Failing to Achieve Escape Velocity](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/01/german-economy-failing-to-achieve-escape-velocity/) - QUICK QUILL — Like the United States, industrial activity in Germany remains moribund with signs of oversupply in chemicals, which sit at the beginning of the supply chain. Record fiscal stimulus this year has also failed to lift GDP, the jobs market, consumer sentiment and income expectations. We remain constructive on the euro and respectfully beg
- [The First Lufthansa](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/01/the-first-lufthansa/) - Lufthansa, Germany’s flag carrier and one of the world’s largest airlines, commenced operations 70 years ago, in 1955. And yet, they’re celebrating 2026 as their centennial, even painting one of their 787s in a special livery to mark the occasion. How then, did Lufthansa age to 100 years? It’s the inclusion of its predecessor, “Deutsche
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 11.29.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/29/saturday-intelligence-briefing-11-29-25/)
- [Both Bulls and Bears Gave Thanks on Thanksgiving Eve](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/28/both-bulls-and-bears-gave-thanks-on-thanksgiving-eve/) - QUICK QUILL — On Wednesday, bulls were thankful for better-than-expected results from Jobless Claims and Durable Goods. Bears gave thanks for the parallel narrative drawn by a relatively weaker path for real core capex volumes, which echoed the recently revised and cooler path for manufacturing capacity utilization. Chicago PMI’s cratering was the whipped cream on the
- [“Love to eat turkey, ‘Cause it's good”](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/28/love-to-eat-turkey-cause-its-good/) - It’s been 33 years since Adam Sandler debuted “The Thanksgiving Song.” In the November 21, 1992, episode of Saturday Night Live, he defined his future career in comedy with an original song. In a rare 2019 interview with NPR, Sandler described how music became fundamental to his humor: “My roommate Tim Herlihy, who I write
- [Consumer Discretionary Bearishness Deepening](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/26/consumer-discretionary-bearishness-deepening/) - QUICK QUILL — The compression in income expectations ups conviction for consumer discretionary risks. Additional margin compression in distribution channels and softness in hotel activity and pricing should not be a surprising follow-on development. An upside-down Lone Star State retail outlook, representing a tenth of national spending, flags further underperformance. TAKEAWAYS Retail Sales ex-Food Services and
- [Everyone’s Gone to the Moon, Up a Lazy River](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/26/everyones-gone-to-the-moon-up-a-lazy-river/) - According to WABC disc jockey Dan Ingram, the world slowed down on the evening of November 9, 1965. In an afternoon segment, as New Yorkers were commuting home, he noted that Jonathan King's “Everyone's Gone to the Moon,” sounded slow. The subsequent jingles during a commercial break were equally sluggish. As Si Zentner's recording of
- [Treasury Yields Succumbing to Disinflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/25/treasury-yields-succumbing-to-disinflation/) - QUICK QUILL — Reports from the Chicago and Dallas Fed District Banks suggested that the Chicago PMI could stay below 50 amidst building Texas factory caution. The Federal Reserve’s annual Industrial Production revision was hugely negative, revealing a downshift in resource utilization. Echoes of lost pricing power resonated in the Chicago Fed’s Survey of Economic Conditions.
- [Deep Dish by Committee](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/25/deep-dish-by-committee/) - At the corner of Ohio & Wabash in 1943, the Chicago deep-dish pizza was invented. You know it today as Pizzeria Uno. According to the company’s website, “It was here that Ike (Sewell) served a pizza unlike any that had been served before. Buttery ‘out-of-this-world’ crust that had a tall edge like a fruit pie.
- [Fed Policymakers Are Ignoring Recessionary Survey Data Across the Income Spectrum](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/24/fed-policymakers-are-ignoring-recessionary-survey-data-across-the-income-spectrum/) - QUICK QUILL — Youth unemployment is at a cycle high and perceived job market prospects for this cohort are at levels seen during the double-dip recession which began in 1980. Perceptions of income growth for middle- and high-income earners are at cycle lows and levels last seen in the Great Recession. While coincident indicators bolstered the
- [How Are the Dances, Frances?](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/24/how-are-the-dances-frances/) - “So, what do you do?” “It’s kind of hard to explain.” “Because what you do is complicated?” “Eh… because I don’t really do it.” A decade before Greta Gerwig set box-office records as director of 2023’s Barbie movie, she starred as a struggling, wannabe dancer in the indie flick, Frances Ha. Gerwig plays the titular
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 11.22.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/22/saturday-intelligence-briefing-11-22-25/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Giving Thanks to Our Legacies](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/21/the-weekly-quill-giving-thanks-to-our-legacies/)
- [Payrolls Provoke a Sigh of Relief, but the Fed Can’t Exhale](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/21/payrolls-provoke-a-sigh-of-relief-but-the-fed-cant-exhale/) - QUICK QUILL — The Treasury market’s rally showed it wasn’t sold on the “surprise” September job gain. This said, there wasn’t enough shock value to change the Fed’s mind about not cutting in December. Downward payroll revisions, cyclical employment pressures, a higher-than-expected unemployment rate, and upward jobless risks, though, do not argue for an extended pause. TAKEAWAYS Private NFPs ex-Education
- [Delivering the Narrative](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/21/delivering-the-narrative/) - “Voiceover, I think, is the key to that movie. Marty said, ‘When he slams the car trunk down, and he's looking out, I’m going to freeze-frame, and then: As far back as I can remember, I wanted to be a gangster...’ It’s very unusual to have a voiceover on a dead screen, except for the
- [Fed Needs More Convincing to Uphold Its Employment Mandate](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/20/fed-needs-more-convincing-to-uphold-its-employment-mandate/) - QUICK QUILL — Unemployment expectations from multiple sources tilt to the upside relative to the unchanged consensus expectations for today’s (stale) September jobs report. Back revisions to payrolls may not lean in a definitive direction, but we would take the under on the private sector. Fading any continued gains in Education and Health Care is sensible
- [BLS Wish: Serve Bread Pudding Instead of Stale Bread](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/20/bls-wish-serve-bread-pudding-instead-of-stale-bread/) - Offer your party guests stale bread, and they’ll channel John McEnroe’s signature, “You cannot be serious!” But serve up a sweet, luxurious bread pudding and ‘yummy’ sounds will echo across your humble abode. Stale bread is the backbone of any good bread pudding; fresh bread turns into mush. Stale bread cubes remain intact and soak
- [Pendulum Swinging Too Far on December Rate Cut Probability](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/19/pendulum-swinging-too-far-on-december-rate-cut-probability/) - QUICK QUILL — ADP’s weekly private employment numbers remained in negativity into November; they’d already flagged weakness in September, countering consensus expectations for a modest sequential gain. The New York Fed Services survey was more definitive on the direction of employment risks in America’s biggest service sector employer. The rising trend in New York State’s continuing
- [Data During the Witching Hour](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/19/data-during-the-witching-hour/) - ’Tis now the very witching time of night, When churchyards yawn, and hell itself breathes out Contagion to this world. Now could I drink hot blood And do such bitter business as the day Would quake to look on.… One of the earliest references to the “witching hour” features in William Shakespeare’s Hamlet, at the
- [Question the Empire and Construction Beats](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/18/question-the-empire-and-construction-beats/) - QUICK QUILL — Fade the gains in November’s Empire and August’s Construction Spending. The former has been overestimating ISM misdiagnosed the factory sector’s health for the last 12 months. Moreover, the bounce in Empire Future Capex counters the micro news as Micron Technology puts a planned New York megafab plant on ice for two to three
- [Death Star Open: The Final Hole](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/18/death-star-open-the-final-hole/) - If Star Wars met Happy Gilmore in a dark alley, it would go something like this: “Welcome back to the 18th, the tightest par-3 in the galaxy, folks! We’ve got Luke Skywalker, the young rookie from Tatooine, lining up his final approach shot – a proton torpedo into that two-meter thermal exhaust port. This is
- [Shelter Disinflation Quickening as Labor Weakness Spreads to the Full Economy](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/17/shelter-disinflation-quickening-as-labor-weakness-spreads-to-the-full-economy/) - QUICK QUILL — CoStar’s U.S. rental index fell by the most for any October in 15 years while FHA delinquencies tied to “No Contact” and “Other,” which includes failure to rent and mortgage fraud, rose to 31.49% in Q3 2025. While Fed officials publicly angst about inflation -- which has failed to manifest outside food and
- [Noirvember](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/17/noirvember/) - Happy “Noirvember” to all who celebrate! Coming on the heels of “Hitchcocktober,” throughout which movie lovers indulge in scary movies and slashers in the run-up to Halloween, “Noirvember” celebrates the “film noir” genre. Popularized in the 1940s and 1950s in the wake of World War II, noirs were typically shot in black-and-white, featured crime-related narratives,
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 11.15.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/15/saturday-intelligence-briefing-11-15-25/)
- [The Weekly Quill — “Think Small” — The Bigness of AI Rams Into CRE](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/14/the-weekly-quill-think-small-the-bigness-of-ai-rams-into-cre/)
- [Disinflationary Theme Manifest in Transportation and Global Supply Chain](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/14/disinflationary-theme-manifest-in-transportation-and-global-supply-chain/) - QUICK QUILL — Disinflationary influences from the global supply chain, Western housing markets and the freight transport sector are inconsistent with rising bond yields. If anything, the common denominator of reduced capacity pressures should give monetary policy more, not less, conviction to act via easier policy. TAKEAWAYS The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index remained in
- [Slip Slidin’ Away](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/14/slip-slidin-away/) - Sometimes artists’ leftovers can be huge hits. Just ask Paul Simon, the octogenarian of “Sound of Silence” fame with Art Garfunkel. To perfect his musical leftovers 13 years after the 1964 anthem’s release, he chose musicians wisely. Anthony Jackson’s bass burbled right alongside the melody line in inventive ways, while Steve Gadd’s drums and Ralph
- [Mortgage Bankers’ Price & Growth Risks Up the Probability of a Fed Rate Cut](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/13/mortgage-bankers-price-growth-risks-up-the-probability-of-a-fed-rate-cut/) - QUICK QUILL — The October CPI was due today. The previously anticipated fall back in September Owners’ Equivalent Rent should have extended into October and subsequent months if the cooling in home purchase loan sizes in a guide. On the demand side, purchase applications could face downward pressure as economic uncertainty has worsened. On the refi
- [Hot Forging the Mortgage Loan Cycle](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/13/hot-forging-the-mortgage-loan-cycle/) - “The man shapes iron into a cutting tool and does his work over the coals, fashioning it with hammers and working it with his strong arm. He also gets hungry and his strength fails; he drinks no water and becomes weary.” --Isaiah 44:12 Blacksmiths have been toiling over smoldering coals for ages. Hot forging is
- [ADP and NFIB Underpin the Bull Steepener Call](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/12/adp-and-nfib-underpin-the-bull-steepener-call/) - QUICK QUILL — ADP’s weekly job tally indicated a shift towards net job destruction towards the end of October, underperforming the latest monthly employment count. NFIB small business top- and bottom-line fundamentals reinforce the challenging labor environment. Labor quality jumping as a concern on Main Street may not be sending its usual demand signal, instead being
- [Good Vibrations to Not So Good Vibrations](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/12/good-vibrations-to-not-so-good-vibrations/) - The Beach Boys’ “Good Vibrations” was the ultimate sonic experiment and a departure from their earlier surf-inspired tunes. It started in Brian Wilson’s head, inspired by a weird childhood story from his mom about how dogs pick up on people’s “vibrations.” Fueled by a new spiritual awakening and a bit of herbal inspiration, Brian decided
- [Small Business America Signals Cooling Growth, Wages and Prices to Fed Officials](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/11/small-business-america-signals-cooling-growth-wages-and-prices-to-fed-officials/) - QUICK QUILL — Small business optimism could be further pressured if the UMich News Heard index is any guide. Fiserv’s Small Business report adds cooler guidance for growth and a tamer direction for core goods inflation, while NFIB and ADP agree on a looser labor picture and further wage disinflation. All factors are inconsistent with the
- [The (Former) Farmers’ Almanac](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/11/the-former-farmers-almana/) - The Farmers’ Almanac has always had a ‘special sauce.’ According to the publication that dates to 1818, two-century-old proprietary formulas incorporate the Moon’s phase, zodiac positions and other factors to determine the most successful days for certain endeavors. Today being November 11th, the Almanac suggests we: Ask for a loan, Cut hair to slow growth,
- [Americans’ Perceptions of Recession Hit Record High](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/10/americans-perceptions-of-recession-hit-record-high/) - QUICK QUILL — American households anticipating the current recession have hit a record high in University of Michigan history. Federal Reserve officials’ and the Street’s desire to dismiss reality has become a curiosity. LinkUp daily job openings have fallen below that of January 2020, when the pandemic accelerated and subsequently rescued the economy from recession. NY
- [Reading: A Novel Idea](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/10/reading-a-novel-idea/) - “You think your pain and your heartbreak are unprecedented in the history of the world, but then you read. It was Dostoyevsky and Dickens who taught me that the things that tormented me most were the very things that connected me with all the people who were alive, or who ever had been alive.” James
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 11.8.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/08/saturday-intelligence-briefing-11-8-25/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Passive Breaks Fallen Angels’ Descent](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/07/the-weekly-quill-passive-breaks-fallen-angels-descent/)
- [Labor Leaning Risk-Off](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/07/labor-leaning-risk-off/) - QUICK QUILL — Alternative labor news from Challenger’s job cuts and hiring plans and Revelio’s employment count point to a loosening labor picture that won’t be confirmed as today’s second U.S. Employment report will be absent the market flow. Notably tight credit spreads are at opposite ends of the fundamental spectrum vis-à-vis the surge in private
- [Fashionably Late or Fashionably Early](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/07/fashionably-late-or-fashionably-early/) - In 1889, French travel writer Max O’Rell published Jonathan and his Continent, a humorous and critical European perspective on American Society. To his thinking, “fashionably late” was a strictly American phenomenon: “The Americans have an unbearable trick of arriving late at the theatre. For twenty minutes after the curtain rises there is a constant bustling
- [Making the Case for Consumer Discretionary Bears](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/06/making-the-case-for-consumer-discretionary-bears/) - QUICK QUILL — ADP and ISM Services beat expectations, taking Treasury yields up in the process. But labor details from both reports reinforced caution for the job market. Greater economic uncertainty for auto buying piled onto consumer risks – and used car prices. Throw in disappointing restaurant results, and they all converge to flag capitulation for
- [That’s Life](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/06/thats-life/) - “On October 18, 1966, at 8:00P.M., Frank Sinatra, in a tux with Mia Farrow on his arm, walked into Western Recorders on Sunset Blvd. in Hollywood and greeted – and joked with – 40 musicians who were rehearsed and ready to go. 20 minutes later he took Ms. Farrow by the hand and left. In
- [Volatility Remains Cheap](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/05/volatility-remains-cheap/) - QUICK QUILL — North American consumer confidence is deteriorating, and RCM/TIPP says take the under on Friday’s UMich. Credit managers are hearing echoes of 2007-09, with more emotion in payment disputes and are tightening underwriting standards, especially in the labor-intensive service sector. Combine the fundamental themes with Wall Street execs chirping about overvaluation risks, and equity
- [Not So Neighborly](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/05/not-so-neighborly/) - Thirty-three years apart, 1981’s Neighbors and 2014’s Neighbors could not be more different. The only connection between these Hollywood movies is the shared, generic title and the fact that both plots revolve around conflict with the people who move in next door. The 1981 cult classic is known for its dark, absurdist comedy and surreal
- [Beneath the ISM Headline Lies Evidence Bolstering the Case for Higher Rate Cut Probabilities](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/04/beneath-the-ism-headline-lies-evidence-bolstering-the-case-for-higher-rate-cut-probabilities/) - QUICK QUILL — The ISM manufacturing report fed the bullish narrative for the risk asset rally as the new orders-inventories spread expanded for a third month in a row and oversupply conditions remained at bay. However, enduring uncertainty and ongoing global trade compression make for anything but a bullish path forward for factory headcount. These factors
- [The Lucky Tomato](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/04/the-lucky-tomato/) - According to traditional folklore, putting a ripe tomato on the mantel or windowsill of a new home brought good fortune and ensured future prosperity, while warding off evil spirits and repelling bad luck. Perish the thought, especially since tomatoes were seasonal and would eventually rot, defeating the purpose of a permanent good-luck charm. Because the
- [WARN Notices at September 2009 High Complicate the Fed’s Imagined Inflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/03/warn-notices-at-september-2009-high-complicate-the-feds-imagined-inflation/) - QUICK QUILL — So much for “stability,” Chair Powell. MacroEdge’s October tally of announced job cuts hit a 25-month high in October, a decidedly unstable signal on the Fed’s labor mandate corroborated by the 6-month rolling tally of WARN notices nationwide hitting the highest since September 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. Drilling down
- [Marlene on the Front Lines](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/03/marlene-on-the-front-lines/) - In 1930, Marlene Dietrich moved from Germany to the United States and signed a seven-year contract with Paramount Pictures, which hoped the actress could compete at the box office with MGM’s Swedish starlet, Greta Garbo. Today she’s remembered as one of Classic Hollywood’s most captivating screen presences. But Dietrich viewed her advocacy work during World
- [Financial Insecurity is Threatening to Boil Over into the Real Economy](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/27/financial-insecurity-is-threatening-to-boil-over-into-the-real-economy/) - QUICK QUILL — Plagued by mounting household leverage, financial security for the middle- and lower-income terciles surveyed by the University of Michigan hit a record low in data to 2011. Big-ticket spending intentions are flirting with record lows as layoffs continue to mount and wages fail to afford countless U.S. families the freedom to make discretionary
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 11.1.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/11/01/saturday-intelligence-briefing-11-1-25/)
- [The Weekly Quill — The Battle for Rare Earths is Winnable](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/31/the-weekly-quill-the-battle-for-rare-earths-is-winnable/)
- [Chicago PMI Could Bounce While ASA’s Temp Bump Could Bolster Powell’s Holiday Threat](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/31/chicago-pmi-could-bounce-while-asas-temp-bump-could-bolster-powells-holiday-threat/) - QUICK QUILL — Chicago PMI highlights today’s light U.S. economic calendar. Survey movements as far as Austria and within the Chicago Federal Reserve District agree with the consensus estimate’s direction that points up. However, a return to expansion for the Chicago PMI might be a stretch. From the leading indicator department, the ASA Staffing Index has
- [The Most Austrian City Outside Austria](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/31/the-most-austrian-city-outside-austria/) - According to the Encyclopedia of Chicago, “With nearly 40,000 residents of Austrian ancestry at the end of the twentieth century, Chicago is, at least symbolically, the most Austrian city outside of Austria itself.” It all began in 1890. Chicago became the key destination of Burgenlanders (from Burgenland in eastern Austria) immigrating to North America. Economic
- [Homebuilders Not Getting Love from Fed Policy Guidance](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/30/homebuilders-not-getting-love-from-fed-policy-guidance/) - QUICK QUILL — Near-term U.S. home sale prospects are teetering as economic uncertainty has deepened amidst a dramatic ramp-up in layoff announcements. This suggests less traction for relatively lower rates, a theme picked up by online real estate company Redfin. The Fed’s rate cut and announced end to QT were supportive steps to underpin housing, but
- [The Three-Legged Geometric Principle](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/30/the-three-legged-geometric-principle/) - “Stability. Reliability. No wobble.” These three qualities are everything you want when seated. Most chairs or bar stools, however, are made with four legs. To check the boxes for all three assets, it requires each leg to be the same length and lie on a plane that’s perfectly flat. Anyone who frequents their favorite restaurant
- [Consumer and CEOs Inform the Fed That It’s Far from Done Cutting Rates](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/29/consumer-and-ceos-inform-the-fed-that-its-far-from-done-cutting-rates/) - QUICK QUILL — Consumer and CEO Confidence flagged a turn in the Beveridge Curve as escape velocity for higher unemployment growing and labor cost cutting are the common denominator for executives. All factors suggest the Fed should keep cutting, today, in December and into 2026. TAKEAWAYS Conference Board’s Fewer Jobs gauge ticked up to 27.8 in
- [R.I.P. Spaceman](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/29/r-i-p-spaceman/) - Name: Paul Daniel “Ace” Frehley Alias: The Spaceman (a.k.a. Space Ace) Born: April 27, 1951, in The Bronx, New York City Died: October 16, 2025 (aged 74) in Morristown, New Jersey Ace Frehley was the original lead guitarist and a founding member of the glam rock band KISS. He birthed the “Spaceman” persona, known for
- [Caution from Germany and Texas Support an Easier Fed](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/28/caution-from-germany-and-texas-support-an-easier-fed/) - QUICK QUILL — Germany’s IFO and the Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing survey are signaling below-normal prospects for their respective economies. China’s accelerating Industrial Profits should be faded as a global growth gauge as they’ve disconnected with shipping activity to the U.S. and the cautious themes from IFO and Dallas Fed. If Texas manufacturers had an FOMC
- [2015: A Benchmark Year](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/28/2015-a-benchmark-year/) - Sometimes the stars align just so. Hollywood will never forget 2015 was one of those years. A historic milestone was achieved at the worldwide box office, marking the first time ever that five movies simultaneously crossed the coveted $1 billion threshold in global ticket sales. The unprecedented cinematic blockbuster surge highlighted the combined growing power
- [Anora’s American Dream](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/27/anoras-american-dream/) - “Oh, stay jealous babe. Stay jealous, honey. Jealousy is a disease, remember that, Diamond. I’m just gonna go chill in my mansion or whatever, you know, no big deal!” Anora, the titular character from last year’s Best Picture Oscar winner, thinks she’s found her ticket to the high life when she elopes with the son
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 10.25.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/25/saturday-intelligence-briefing-10-25-25/)
- [Taking the Under on Rent and Hotel Rate Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/24/taking-the-under-on-rent-and-hotel-rate-risks/) - QUICK QUILL — September’s Existing Home Sales underwhelmed, but the drop in mortgage rates to the lowest level in more than a year enters hope into the equation for the near-term outlook. That said, home resale supply conditions continue to exert a downward influence on home prices and by extension rents. Consumer vacation intentions also point
- [O’er and O’er Again](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/24/oer-and-oer-again/) - Would you all please rise and remove your hats for the singing of our national anthem… On the night of September 13, 1814, Francis Scott Key was detained aboard a British truce ship in Baltimore harbor as the British Navy bombarded Fort McHenry. From his vantage point, Key could only see the battle through momentary
- [Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey Serves Up Lower Rate Risk](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/23/bank-of-canada-business-outlook-survey-serves-up-lower-rate-risk/) - QUICK QUILL — Canadian core inflation may be running above the BoC’s target, but observations from the third quarter Business Outlook Survey suggest the easing cycle could have legs after the central bank’s October meeting. With the swaps market pricing a one-and-done next week, the direction of Canadian rate risk is lower. TAKEAWAYS Canada’s CPI-median and
- [Tuning into Canada](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/23/tuning-into-canada/) - To honor our collective grandfathers, we reluctantly recognize that cool, clear nights make for excellent listening opportunities on the AM radio band. Unfortunately, during daylight hours, we’re prohibited from doing so as the sun's radiation creates the so-called ‘D-layer’ in the ionosphere, absorbing AM radio waves. This forces the signal to follow the Earth’s curvature,
- [The Weekly Quill — The Fed Refills the Punch Bowl To Float the ME-Economy for the Few](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/22/the-weekly-quill-the-fed-refills-the-punch-bowl-to-float-the-me-economy-for-the-few/)
- [Philly Fed Casts Another Vote for Fed Easing and Extends the ‘K’-shaped Capex Outlook](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/22/philly-fed-casts-another-vote-for-fed-easing-and-extends-the-k-shaped-capex-outlook/) - QUICK QUILL — The Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey reinforced downward labor and growth pressures and disinflationary risks from a regional perspective, all of which support additional Fed easing. The current capex picture, however, showed notable divergence between stronger tech investment and weaker investment everywhere else. A ‘K’-shaped capex imbalance is poised to extend into 2026. TAKEAWAYS
- [Rolling Boulders in the Third District](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/22/rolling-boulders-in-the-third-district/) - “Raiders of the Lost Ark is one of the most consummately entertaining adventure pictures of all time.” At least that’s how Rotten Tomatoes’ (RT) critics see it. Scoring a 96% on RT’s Popcornmeter, there’s no debate from the 250,000+ audience reviews either. Still, have you ever wondered how Spielberg & Co. created the iconic boulder
- [China and Germany Portend Global Disinflation is In Train](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/21/china-and-germany-portend-global-disinflation-is-in-train/) - QUICK QUILL — Germany’s export conditions slump has more to do with intra-Euro Area flows in September than external ones via its top customer China. However, according to China Beige Book, the bulge in the Middle Kingdom’s top-line performance was not validated by stronger corporate credit and looks more like a pull-forward in demand amidst an
- [Heisting the Global Downside](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/21/heisting-the-global-downside/) - On August 20, 1911, a man entered the poorly secured Louvre Museum. As recounted by NPR, that morning, “Vincenzo Peruggia, an Italian handyman who had briefly worked at the Louvre, donned his old uniform, walked into the museum and, when the coast was clear, took the painting right off the wall. He slipped it out
- [Financial Market Stress is Bleeding into U.S. Housing](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/20/financial-market-stress-is-bleeding-into-u-s-housing/) - QUICK QUILL — With “fraud” becoming an accepted byword, expect the unravelling in the U.S. housing market to accelerate. Average home prices, per MBA, have fallen YoY for four straight weeks while the number of days taken to sell a home has steadily risen vis-à-vis prior years and the portion selling above list has markedly declined.
- [Housing Used to Sizzle, Now It Sputters](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/20/housing-used-to-sizzle-now-it-sputters/) - In 2019, The New York Times set the Internet ablaze with a blistering, zero-star review of Brooklyn’s famed Peter Luger Steak House. The title: “Peter Luger Used to Sizzle, Now It Sputters.” Open since 1887, Peter Luger is the third-oldest steakhouse in New York City, famous for its porterhouse served on a scalding hot plate
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 10.18.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/18/saturday-intelligence-briefing-10-18-25/)
- [Philly and New York Labor, Growth and Pricing Bullish for Treasuries](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/17/philly-and-new-york-labor-growth-and-pricing-bullish-for-treasuries/) - QUICK QUILL — Both Philadelphia Manufacturing and New York Service Surveys are guidance for weaker labor outcomes amid cooling growth prospects and a softer outlook for corporate pricing power – and, by extension, profits. Add in financial volatility and the debate at the October Fed meeting should be between 25 and 50, not the 25 that’s
- [From the City of Tough Brotherly Love](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/17/from-the-city-of-tough-brotherly-love/) - What great American city doesn’t have diehard sports fans? Still, we bet dollars to doughnuts that Philadelphia fans are the toughest on the planet. New York Rangers fans know that you don’t wear your Broadway Blueshirt to the local Philly cheesesteak joint – in Philly – unless you want a side order of ‘hockey fight.’
- [Pressures Remain for Cyclical Manufacturing and Logistics](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/16/pressures-remain-for-cyclical-manufacturing-and-logistics/) - QUICK QUILL — The Empire manufacturing index beat market expectations and just about everything beneath the headline materially improved. We caution against projecting the good news forward. Both technical and fundamental factors point to a sizable reversal next month. Moreover, outsized weakness in Future Employment and Future Capex suggests Second District industrials remain guarded about expansion
- [You Can’t Judge a Book by its Cover](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/16/you-cant-judge-a-book-by-its-cover/) - “But the Lord said to Samuel, ‘Do not look at his appearance or his stature because I have rejected him. Humans do not see what the Lord sees, for humans see what is visible, but the Lord sees the heart.’” 1 Samuel 16:7, The Bible If it’s in the Good Book, we know we’ve long
- [Fed Rate-Cut Pricing May Not Be Aggressive Enough](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/15/fed-rate-cut-pricing-may-not-be-aggressive-enough/) - QUICK QUILL — From a demand perspective, Main Street’s overriding revenue anxiety signals higher underemployment and lower core inflation. The bigger NFIB takeaway was the sharp and sudden weakening in Inventory Satisfaction, punctuating sales concerns. This could be a sign that the supply situation is turning from planned builds to unwanted accumulation. Combined with a worsening in
- [From the Po’ Boy to Poor Sales](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/15/from-the-po-boy-to-poor-sales/) - The Po’ Boy’s story is pure “Nawlins.” It dates to 1929, when the Martin Brothers — Benny and Clovis — started slinging free food to striking streetcar workers. The purveyors of Martin Brothers’ Coffee Stand and Restaurant in the Crescent City decided to back their former union buddies during tough times. The original “poor boy”
- [CEOs’ Forward Guidance Is Consistent with More Labor Cost Disinflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/14/ceos-forward-guidance-is-consistent-with-more-labor-cost-disinflation/) - QUICK QUILL — Driven by slower expectations for hiring, CEOs’ outlooks edged up to an average reading in October. This adds to household balance sheet pressures already evident in rising cycles for individual bankruptcies and continuing claims that flag further upside in delinquency rates. Fastenal’s disappointing earnings report and the cooling trend in withheld employment taxes
- [“Average” Doesn’t Work for CEOs](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/14/average-doesnt-work-for-ceos/) - “Commerce is a game of skill, which every man cannot play, which few men can play well. The right merchant is one who has the just average of faculties we call commonsense; a man of strong affinity for facts, who makes up his decision on what he has seen. He is thoroughly persuaded of the
- [Canadian Economy Challenged by Renewed Weakness](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/13/canadian-economy-challenged-by-renewed-weakness/) - QUICK QUILL — Canada’s economy is weakening at a faster pace. The 6-month change in unemployment has exceeded that of employment for three months running, a persistence that’s accompanied past recessions. Fresh contractionary readings in its service sector employment and services backlogs hitting a fresh cycle low corroborate the deepening economic downturn. Job insecurity is also
- [Canadian Pizza, Not Hawaiian](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/13/canadian-pizza-not-hawaiian/) - Pineapple on pizza: it’s as fraught a topic as any hot-button political issue. Many a Millennial user of the dating app Hinge has used it as a “hot take” to stir conversation with potential matches. Like cilantro, people either love it or hate it. But where exactly did Hawaiian pizza come from? Contrary to the
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — October 11, 2025](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/11/saturday-intelligence-briefing-october-11-2025/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Artificial Theatre](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/11/the-weekly-quill-artificial-theatre/)
- [Yesteryear’s Mania is Today’s Meme](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/10/yesteryears-mania-is-todays-meme/) - QUICK QUILL — Nondepository financial institution loan (NDFI) growth has dominated commercial bank loan books this year. However, lending volume outside this line item has contracted and, notably, in the cyclically important Commercial and Industrial space. This ‘K’-shaped narrative benefits financial assets over economic activity. The sharp and volatile gains in NDFI suggest (effective) credit lines have
- [Tapping Kegs and Credit Lines](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/10/tapping-kegs-and-credit-lines/) - ‘Tis the season for keggers! Little do countless college-age boys know the debt of gratitude they owe to Richard Spikes. Before the visionary modernized the beer tap, barkeeps wrestled -- and lost -- the battle with barrels, clumsy wooden spigots and wasted a whole lot of beer. Ending all this came to Spikes in his
- [Big Data Speaks for Jobless Claims](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/09/big-data-speaks-for-jobless-claims/) - QUICK QUILL — Cooling house price inflation and diminished home and auto price expectations flag Fed policy that remains decidedly restrictive. Notably, big data from Google Trends point to a more rapid deterioration in the unemployment picture in recent weeks. Confirmation from future jobless claims reports which downplay the government shutdown as the perpetrator would have
- [Channeling Our Best Jimmy Buffett](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/09/channeling-our-best-jimmy-buffett/) - Let the Jimmy Buffett séance begin… “Usually about the time the clock hits 2:30 and the fluorescent lights start buzzing, you realize my whole ‘Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitude’ philosophy wasn't just a catchy tune – it was a survival guide. It’s the moment you trade the tyranny of the 9-to-5 grind and the
- [Middle-income Households in the Middle of the Crosshairs](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/08/middle-income-households-in-the-middle-of-the-crosshairs/) - QUICK QUILL — At first glance, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations perpetuated Fed Chair Powell’s dual mandate characterization of near-term upside inflation risks paired with downside employment risks. A deeper dive showed jobless concerns at the top end of the income spectrum manifest as job, income and spending worries for middle-income households. Since
- [Tops is the Top, But the Middle is Worried](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/08/tops-is-the-top-but-the-middle-is-worried/) - New Jersey proudly holds the title of the Diner Capital of the World, not just for its sheer density of chrome palaces, but because the Garden State was the birthplace of the modular diner itself! Even in this fiercely competitive culinary landscape, Tops Diner in East Newark stands as the undisputed champion, the gleaming, Art
- [Credit Managers Flag Depressed Growth & Signal Downside for Labor and Inflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/07/credit-managers-flag-depressed-growth-signal-downside-for-labor-and-inflation/) - QUICK QUILL — September’s NACM Credit Managers’ Index revealed a shock to revenues. In manufacturing, credit managers were blunt about the changing business conditions, while on the service side, survey respondents indicated that the number of customers who are ‘ghosting’ has increased. When demand wavers and credit concerns intensify, firms look to cut the costs they
- [Fissures are Worse Than Cracks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/07/fissures-are-worse-than-cracks/) - A crack is the Everyman of incomplete linear fractures. It’s a blue-collar worker – simple, honest, and everywhere. It’s what happens when you drop your phone, what appears in your driveway or the sound your knuckles make. A crack is perfectly content being shallow, irregular, and utterly common. It just wants to communicate that a
- [Services Activity and Employment Retrench Domestically and Abroad](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/06/services-activity-and-employment-retrench-domestically-and-abroad/) - QUICK QUILL — Renewed weakening in ISM Services Business Activity and Employment indexes illustrates firms rushing to preserve margins to combat stubbornly high input costs. A retrenchment in the U.S.’s biggest trading partners lays bare the payback effects spreading through the global economy after pre-tariff stock-building succumbs to a lack of underlying demand. Credit bubbles, even
- [The Curious Case of the Gardner Museum Art Heist](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/06/the-curious-case-of-the-gardner-museum-art-heist/) - On March 18, 1990, thieves disguised as policemen broke into the Gardner Museum in Boston and made away with 13 works of art. To this day, the crime remains unsolved and the artwork has never been recovered. Among the stolen loot was “The Concert” by Johannes Vermeer, which many consider to be the world’s most
- [The Weekly Quill — Colliding Canaries in the Credit Coal Mine](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/03/the-weekly-quill-colliding-canaries-in-the-credit-coal-mine/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — October 4, 2025](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/04/saturday-intelligence-briefing-october-4-2025/)
- [No Employment Report, No Problem](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/03/no-employment-report-no-problem/) - QUICK QUILL — New kid on the block, Revelio reinforces the downshift in private job growth below breakeven employment. Significantly weaker Challenger hiring announcements and MacroEdge’s job cuts, supported by a pick-up in WARN notices, add to labor risks. Washington State’s record WARNs in September reveal it as a notable soft spot that could lead the
- [Widening the Mosaic](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/03/widening-the-mosaic/) - The word “mosaic” is a whispered echo of the ancient world, its very origin a storied journey from sacred grotto to digital screen. Rather than spring from the ground, it was born in the humid, echoing chambers of the muses – Greek mythology’s goddesses of inspiration. The term traces its lineage to the Greek μovσϵoν
- [Labor Cracks Widening](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/03/labor-cracks-widening/) - QUICK QUILL — The ISM and ADP reports together indicate significant global trade compression and emerging private sector job losses inclusive and exclusive of recession-proof industries. Paychex’s jobs index and the collapse in construction job openings reinforce the downside to the official payroll data that we may or may not see in a day’s time. These
- [Ode to Goose Eggs](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/02/ode-to-goose-eggs/) - Upon a farm in Goshen, Ohio, Lived Speckle, a goose of high renown. On May the third, in 'seventy-seven, though, She laid a marvel that shook the whole town! No dainty sphere, no ordinary white, But a colossal oval, truly grand, A speckled wonder, bursting with bright light, The heaviest egg laid by a goose
- [Favor the Bears for Short-Run U.S. Dollar Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/01/favor-the-bears-for-short-run-u-s-dollar-risks/) - QUICK QUILL — The Chicago PMI is flagging a larger-than-expected drop in today’s ISM relative to consensus. And weakness in Dallas Fed Services has amplified downside risk for growth, labor and inflation. Consumer Confidence revealed that households are resigned to withering job openings, while regional data indicate widespread jobless concerns that imply the forecasting community might
- [Shout Out to Marquette and Joliet](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/10/01/shout-out-to-marquette-and-joliet/) - It was the summer of 1673. The French remember it well as Jesuit missionary Jacques Marquette and fur trader Louis Joliet navigated deep into the North American interior. Their journey, which stretched from May to September, saw them traverse the length of the Mississippi River, proving it flowed south toward the Gulf of Mexico. On
- [Housing Guidance and Demand Concerns Reinforce Bull Flattener](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/30/housing-guidance-and-demand-concerns-reinforce-bull-flattener/) - QUICK QUILL — Take yesterday’s Pending Home Sales’ upside with a grain of salt. Lower rates aren’t the only guide; household home buying/selling pessimism is persisting. This underpins the AEI’s home price disinflation outlook over the next few months which should act as a depressant on core inflation. Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey qualitatively picked up on
- [QI Can Tell You Why](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/30/qi-can-tell-you-why/) - A poignant cornerstone of The Eagles’ The Long Run album, “I Can't Tell You Why,” holds a deeply personal backstory for its lead vocalist and co-writer, Timothy B. Schmit. Having joined the band in 1977, Schmit brought a nascent idea loosely based on his own experiences. Band leaders Glenn Frey and Don Henley eagerly helped
- [Nearly Half of Americans See the Job Market as Weak as It Was in October 2008](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/29/nearly-half-of-americans-see-the-job-market-as-weak-as-it-was-in-october-2008/) - QUICK QUILL — Nearly half of the upside in August’s Consumer Spending was in Computer Software & Accessories. Absent this idiosyncrasy, the pace of real spending month-over-month was halved. The labor market in the U.S. Heartland is in meltdown mode, which resonated with the direst views of prospects on the jobs front via the final installment
- [Dorian Gray](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/29/dorian-gray/) - “Everything in moderation, including moderation.” Oscar Wilde Since its release in 1890, The Picture of Dorian Gray has stirred controversy. The novel’s premise is simple: Dorian Gray’s close friend and admirer Basil Hayward paints a portrait of him, and Dorian wishes that this portrait would age, rather than himself. His wish unexpectedly comes true,
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing 9.27.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/27/saturday-intelligence-briefing-9-27-25/)
- [Thursday’s Bond Bath Offers Better Entry Points](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/26/thursdays-bond-bath-offers-better-entry-points/) - QUICK QUILL — Yesterday’s economic beats pushed 10-year yields as high as 4.20% as expectations were exceeded for GDP and the leaders of Core Capex Orders and Initial Jobless Claims. As claims’ Wave 4 closed out, big data suggests Wave 5’s commencement in short order. Macro labor concerns – downward revisions to corporate profits – intersected
- [Special K-ing Housing Amid Macro/Micro Labor Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/26/special-k-ing-housing-amid-macro-micro-labor-risks/) - Launched in 1955, Kellogg’s Special K was a delicious and groundbreaking addition to the breakfast aisle. Did you know? The original flaked cereals were accidentally invented in the late 1890s by brothers W.K. Kellogg and Dr. John Harvey Kellogg at the Battle Creek Sanitarium by leaving wheat dough out and then rolling it, creating crisp
- [Consider the Other Side of the Bullish Euro and Strong New Home Sales Narratives](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/25/consider-the-other-side-of-the-bullish-euro-and-strong-new-home-sales-narratives/) - QUICK QUILL — Germany’s ifo survey suffered a setback in September that calls into question the bullish consensus view for the euro. Surging U.S. new home sales look to be technical in nature and inconsistent with home builder sentiment and micro guidance from the likes of KB Homes. Contrarian positioning vs. the crowded euro consensus and
- [From Boston to Munich and Back](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/25/from-boston-to-munich-and-back/) - Boston is renowned for its revolutionary role in American history, its status as a higher education hub and its deeply rooted sports culture. And the natives are known to take their ‘Rs’ and stick them in their pockets: “Pahk the cah in Hahvahd Yahd!” Actor Gregory Hoyt is “Your Cousin from Boston,” the recurring character
- [The Weekly Quill — The Anger Element of Economics — The Economics of the Anger Element](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/24/the-weekly-quill-the-economics-of-the-anger-element-the-anger-element-of-economics/)
- [Risks Accumulating for an Accelerated Fed Easing Cycle](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/24/risks-accumulating-for-an-accelerated-fed-easing-cycle/) - QUICK QUILL — Fed Governor Bowman calling out the payroll diffusion index, which is in free fall, illustrates the dovish camp’s reasoning for combating downside risks to employment. Combined with S&P Global flash surveys and regional Fed reports from the manufacturing and service sectors, history is leaning toward an accelerated easing cycle backloaded over the next
- [How to Survive a Free Fall](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/24/how-to-survive-a-free-fall/) - QI always has your personal safety in mind. Consider today’s public service announcement a guide to surviving a free fall in an elevator. While modern safety systems render this scenario highly unlikely, it remains a classic physics problem that has a clear scientific solution. Should you find yourself in said unfortunate predicament, the most effective
- [A Dearth of Demand Overwhelming Supply](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/23/a-dearth-of-demand-overwhelming-supply/) - QUICK QUILL — Despite historic outmigration, falling demand for new housing is outpacing the consequences of the collapse in the supply of construction workers. Given pressure on home prices due to the imbalance, we remain bearish on homebuilders. TAKEAWAYS For the last 11 months, the two worst-performing regions in the NAHB’s Housing Market Index have been
- [Gates of the Arctic](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/23/gates-of-the-arctic/) - In 2024, the National Park Service tallied a record 94.3 million recreational visits to the country’s 63 National Parks. The most visited won’t surprise: Great Smoky Mountains, Zion, and Yellowstone rank in the top 5. But if you’re looking to get away from the crowds, you might try Gates of the Arctic in Alaska. The
- [Post “Liberation Day” Exhaustion Evident in Industrials](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/22/post-liberation-day-exhaustion-evident-in-industrials/) - QUICK QUILL — The collapse in Future Capex in the nation’s chemicals hub via the Philadelphia Fed, echoed in 33 of the last 35 months by the Chicago Fed’s sister index, flags the risk in growing optimism with respect to an industrial renaissance. Punctuating the trends were Industrials leading all U.S. sectors in private company headcount
- [To Die For](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/22/to-die-for/) - “You’re not anybody in America unless you’re on TV. On TV is where we learn about who we really are. Because what’s the point of doing anything worthwhile if nobody’s watching?” Before Nicole Kidman established herself atop Hollywood’s A-List, one of the defining roles of her early career was as aspiring broadcast journalist Suzanne Stone
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 9.20.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/20/saturday-intelligence-briefing-9-20-25/)
- [A Little Kevin Meaney Goes a Long Way](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/19/a-little-kevin-meaney-goes-a-long-way/) - In the grand, cosmic tapestry of comedic catchphrases, “That’s Not Right” wasn’t born of a moment of profound revelation. Nope, it sprang forth from a far humbler origin. The late comedian Kevin Meaney’s signature catchphrase was a direct impression of his mother and became his comedic persona. The phrase was often the punchline to stories
- [CEOs Smack Down Job Prospects](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/19/ceos-smack-down-job-prospects/) - QUICK QUILL — Fraud and fat-finger typos have plagued the weekly jobless claims report over the last two weeks. Nevertheless, a majority of states have registered a higher unemployment trend vis-à-vis a year ago. The noise from claims contrasts with the near perfect (not a typo) guidance from the Business Roundtable’s CEO employment plans, which signaled
- [Double Down on Bull Flattener After Hawkish Cut](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/18/double-down-on-bull-flattener-after-hawkish-cut/) - QUICK QUILL — When the dust settles after the Fed’s hawkish cut, we still expect the U.S. Treasury curve to bull flatten. State JOLTS revealed precious few states sporting increasing job openings and hires. Lightcast’s Job Postings reversal punctuated the challenges to the labor market. Moreover, the state hires-separations spread, which proxies NFP growth, suggests more
- [America’s Labor Market Needs a Red Bull](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/18/americas-labor-market-needs-a-red-bull/) - Red Bull's entry into the U.S. market in 1997 was a masterclass in unconventional marketing. Instead of traditional advertising like television commercials, the company focused on guerrilla marketing and brand experiences. They initially targeted college students and urban professionals by distributing free cans of the energy drink from branded vehicles at clubs, libraries and sporting
- [Fed Green Light Not Priced Bright Enough](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/17/fed-green-light-not-priced-bright-enough/) - QUICK QUILL — The inflation expectations/current labor divergence in the New York Fed’s services survey should not prevent the Fed from cutting today. But it and so-called “resilient” underlying Retail Sales growth could help tilt the vote toward a gradual start to the easing process instead of an aggressive one. U.S. industrial short-run momentum being revised
- [The Sting of Losing a Hollywood Great](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/17/the-sting-of-losing-a-hollywood-great/) - What Robert Redford and Paul Newman shared went beyond friendship – they had a special bond. Both loved racing cars and playing pranks on each other that they didn’t talk about afterwards. In 2014, Redford recalled his best one: “For his 50th birthday… I decided to play a joke on him. I called a towing
- [Empire Asymmetry Amplifies the Green Light for Fed Cuts](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/16/empire-asymmetry-amplifies-the-green-light-for-fed-cuts/) - QUICK QUILL — The disappointing September Empire Manufacturing survey rallied support for the Fed’s restarting of its easing cycle. Peak price pressures and contracting jobs featured damningly in the report. A re-weakening in New Orders and Future Capex imply employment prospects are deteriorating in the industrial complex. The same service-sector risk is on the table for
- [Deep Thoughts Ahead of the Fed](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/16/deep-thoughts-ahead-of-the-fed/) - Once upon a time, a writer named Jack Handey, who was a real person and not a figment of a fevered dream, wandered the halls of Saturday Night Live with a pocket full of tiny, surreal jokes. Not your average punchlines, these were more philosophical one-liners written by a very, very strange uncle who’d just
- [U.S. Households Across the Economic Spectrum Recognize Recession](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/15/u-s-households-across-the-economic-spectrum-recognize-recession/) - QUICK QUILL — The response rate for the household survey, which produces the unemployment rate, is south of 70% and more than 20 percentage points south of its 2013 high of 90.1%. Fed officials should seriously consider the historical disconnect between QI’s holy grail indicator – the University of Michigan’s Higher Unemployment Expectations (HUE) – and
- [Grey Gardens](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/15/grey-gardens/) - “I only cared about three things: the Catholic Church, swimming, and dancing, and I had to give them up.” For decades, “Big” and “Little” Edie, aunt and first cousin of Jackie Kennedy, lived as recluses at their dilapidated East Hampton estate, “Grey Gardens.” The 1975 documentary of the same name tells their stories, contrasting their
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 9.13.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/13/saturday-intelligence-briefing-9-12-25/)
- [Initial Claims Breakout Threatens Credit Spread Widening](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/12/initial-claims-breakout-threatens-credit-spread-widening/) - QUICK QUILL — Labor leader initial jobless claims broke out of a four-year range in the week ended September 6th, and the move was not related to holiday seasonality. Six months ago, a spike in Higher Unemployment Expectations flagged the future climb in layoffs; claims are following the script. Weakness in housing and homebuilder layoffs in
- [Bad Labor News Comes in Small and Large Packages](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/12/bad-labor-news-comes-in-small-and-large-packages/) - In a land where bison roam and mountains stand tall, Wyoming whispers to the wind, its people a sparse but sturdy folk who know every crevice of their vast, open spaces. Due east, Vermont hides among its green hills and maple trees, a cozy secret known only to those who prefer quiet beauty over bustling
- [Angels Manning Heaven’s Trading Floors — 9.11.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/11/angels-manning-heavens-trading-floors-9-11-25/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Deception in Plain View — The Private Credit Ruse Comes to Light](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/11/the-weekly-quill-deception-in-plain-view-the-private-credit-ruse-comes-to-light/)
- [A Credit Crunch Will Further Impair Producer Pricing Power](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/11/a-credit-crunch-will-further-impair-producer-pricing-power/) - QUICK QUILL — The PPI provided relief on the inflation front. The PPI for trade services was revised to show margin compression continuing this year. Notable compression was evident for consumer goods and especially auto retailing. The timing of yesterday’s Tricolor Auto Group Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing is notable, especially since the firm was a subprime
- [If You’re Hungry, Stop Reading Now](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/11/if-youre-hungry-stop-reading-now/) - Tricolor pasta, with its vibrant shades of green, white and red, is believed to have originated in Italy, where chefs and home cooks used natural ingredients to add the visual appeal. The colors honor the Italian flag, affectionately known as Il Tricolore, and are derived from spinach for the green and tomato or red pepper
- [The Fed Is Even Farther Behind the Curve](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/10/the-fed-is-even-farther-behind-the-curve/) - QUICK QUILL — The huge preliminary benchmark revision reinforced our call for a 50-basis point cut next week. The announcement clearly leaned toward a cyclical story across blue- and white-collar workers alike, as well as states with high travel & tourism intensity. Our projected payroll guesstimate yielded a result that points to weakness emerging in December
- [Dial 9-1-1](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/10/dial-9-1-1/) - The idea for a universal emergency number in the U.S. emerged in the mid-20th century, driven by the need to simplify a confusing system of unique phone numbers for police, fire and medical services. In 1967, the President's Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice recommended a single, national number. The Federal Communications Commission
- [Labor Risks Compound Consumer Cycle Concerns](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/09/labor-risks-compound-consumer-cycle-concerns/) - QUICK QUILL — Today’s annual preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls could test, or even top, the million mark to the downside. Downward revisions immediately following the benchmark period, in May and June, raise cyclical red flags higher. The New York Fed’s Job Finding Expectations revealed a record drop to a record low in August, flagging
- [Desiring Dr. Evil’s Comic Relief](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/09/desiring-dr-evils-comic-relief/) - Dr. Evil: Oh hell, let’s just do what we always do. Hijack some nuclear weapons and hold the world hostage. Yeah? Good! Gentlemen, it has come to my attention that a breakaway Russian Republic called Kreplachistan will be transferring a nuclear warhead to the United Nations in a few days. Here’s the plan. We get
- [The Policy Debate Has Closed](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/08/the-policy-debate-has-closed/) - QUICK QUILL — The pandemic aside, June’s -27,000 NFP print was the first since September 2010. To reiterate the Saturday Intelligence Briefing, which is a must-read if you missed the extensive post-payrolls analysis, “Core Private Employment,” is high on potential Powell replacement Waller’s watchlist. This key pulse of the broad economy has not grown over the interval
- [The Night of the Hunter](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/08/the-night-of-the-hunter/) - Leatherface, Freddy Krueger, and Jason Voorhees are all iconic horror movie villains. But we’re most terrified by the lesser-known Harry Powell. Powell featured in 1955’s The Night of the Hunter and portrayed a Depression-era traveling preacher by day and serial killer by night. The words “love” and “hate” are tattooed on his knuckles, and are
- [From Portnoy to Payrolls](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/05/from-portnoy-to-payrolls/) - Happy National Cheese Pizza Day! Fitting that it’s falling on a Friday, no? To help determine your pie of your choice, why not tap Dave Portnoy’s “One Bite Pizza Reviews.” Native of Salem, Massachusetts and founder of sports and pop culture company Barstool Sports, Portnoy began his pizza ratings on a mission to review every
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — September 6, 2025](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/06/saturday-intelligence-briefing-september-6-2025/)
- [Preparing for Payrolls’ Downside](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/05/preparing-for-payrolls-downside/) - QUICK QUILL — Persistent weakness in ISM Services’ labor indicators and the weakest three-month hiring plan stretch from Challenger’s present downside risk to today’s NFP. ADP’s hiring path easing to levels below breakeven employment growth adds to upside unemployment rate risk alongside the climb in continuing claims and higher near-term pace from Challenger’s job cut announcements.
- [JOLTS Suggest Payroll Revisions Could Shock Again](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/04/jolts-suggest-payroll-revisions-could-shock-again/) - QUICK QUILL — Payroll employment revisions are of equal import to August’s headline NFP. The JOLTS report indicated the potential for another very large downward adjustment to occur for the totality of June and July payrolls. JOLTS and NACM combined to reiterate concerns for the cyclically critical manufacturing and construction industries. Job openings sliding below the
- [Revidere](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/04/revidere/) - The word “revision” is rooted in Latin’s revisio, as in the prefix re- (“again”), and videre, (“to see”). “To see again” encapsulates the word’s modern meaning, a process that goes beyond a simple review and is rather a careful and critical re-examination with the intent to correct or improve. This core concept is evident in
- [The Weekly Quill — Economic Kamikaze](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/03/the-weekly-quill-economic-kamikaze/)
- [Manufacturing and Construction Payrolls in Peril](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/03/manufacturing-and-construction-payrolls-in-peril/) - QUICK QUILL — With the U.S. Employment report two days away, both the ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending flags downside for manufacturing and construction payrolls. Persistent monthly declines in both cyclical sectors would raise the volume on recession probability. Those with a long Treasury bias should be mindful for such outcomes, especially with the potential for
- [Toy Xylophones and Double Contractions](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/03/toy-xylophones-and-double-contractions/) - Bob Merrill was once dubbed the worst songwriter of all time by a critic. Clearly, the public thought otherwise. Merrill was behind Rosemary Clooney’s (George’s aunt) 1954 top ten hit “Mambo Italiano.” He wrote music and lyrics for the hit musical Funny Girl (1964), whose star Barbra Streisand turned Merrill’s song “People” into a Top
- [Labor + Stagflation Risks > Inflation Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/02/labor-stagflation-risks-inflation-risks/) - QUICK QUILL — Labor risks drove the final August UMich consumer survey via an upward revision to Higher Unemployment Expectations and historically low readings on Good News Heard on Employment across the income spectrum, albeit even more severe among the highest income earners, a.k.a. the bosses who hire and fire. Moreover, stagflation expectations have already pressured
- [Are Rates About to Play Limbo?](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/09/02/are-rates-about-to-play-limbo/) - The Limbo originated in Trinidad and Tobago in the mid-19th century as a funeral ritual. It was performed at wakes to commemorate the life of the deceased. The name itself is a Trinidadian English derivative of the word “limber,” referencing “limbus,” Latin for the border of hell, which relates to the in-between state of the
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — August 30, 2025](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/30/saturday-intelligence-briefing-august-30-2025/)
- [Growth and Labor Slack Support Fed Easing](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/29/growth-and-labor-slack-support-fed-easing/) - QUICK QUILL — Second-quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised up and marginal news on jobless claims combined to catalyze a mild selloff in short duration Treasurys yesterday. The bigger picture comes from private demand growth expanding at a below-average pace, loosening the labor market. While growing slack has made it harder to get home purchases under
- [Slack is Not Flying Under the Radar](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/29/slack-is-not-flying-under-the-radar/) - “Flying under the radar” originated in military aviation alongside the advent of radar technology during and after World War II. The term’s etymology is literal. Radar is an acronym for RAdio Detection And Ranging. The system transmits radio waves that bounce off objects like aircraft and return to a receiver. However, early radar systems were
- [House and Rent Price Declines Support Higher Rate Volatility](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/28/house-and-rent-price-declines-support-higher-rate-volatility/) - QUICK QUILL — Declining house and rent prices should silence disinflation doubters at the September 16-17 FOMC. A half-point cut is clearly justified given falling shelter prices are being compounded by rising joblessness. Rate volatility can run higher given September pricing is 86% for 25 bps and 0% for 50 bps. TAKEAWAYS The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller
- [Rare and Well Done](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/28/rare-and-well-done/) - Missouri may be best known for barbecue, but it also has a storied steakhouse culture. Kansas City is the standard-bearer, with offerings ranging from casual to fine dining, all reflecting the city’s food ethos and reverence for meat. So, when the news broke on August 18th that 20 tons of steak went up in flames
- [Unemployment Risks Defy a Mild Consensus](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/27/unemployment-risks-defy-a-mild-consensus/) - QUICK QUILL — Unemployment risks have increased thanks to the Conference Board’s Jobs Hard to Get and Fewer Jobs metrics, suggesting the consensus call for a mild loosening through 2026’s first quarter is too optimistic. Additional data points – LinkUp’s job openings and a lengthening in how long it takes to fill an open position, regional
- [Labor Risks Not a Long Shot](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/27/labor-risks-not-a-long-shot/) - “And they’re into the stretch. Afleet Alex has the lead! Wilko on the outside. Closing Argument on the rail. Going to the wire, it is Afleet Alex! Closing Argument! Afleet Alex! But here comes Giacomo! Giacomo on the outside! It is Giacomo and Giacomo wins the Kentucky Derby!” NBC Announcer Tom Durkin The largest superfecta
- [Labor Downside Outmuscling Upside Risks to Inflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/26/labor-downside-outmuscling-upside-risks-to-inflation/) - QUICK QUILL — The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the New Home Sales report point to tame core inflation and pressured house prices. Moreover, the deterioration in the CFNAI Diffusion Index supports our curve steepener call. Current Production in August’s Dallas Fed manufacturing survey looked good on the surface. But survey details and a
- [85ºC Makes a Good Cup of Espresso](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/26/85oc-makes-a-good-cup-of-espresso/) - In 2003, Mr. Cheng-Hsueh Wu visited a cafe in a five-star hotel. While imbibing in gourmet pastries and drinks, he realized the prices were set way too high for the average person to partake. From that moment, the founder of 85°C Bakery Café envisioned a cafe that provided premium coffee, bread, and cake at affordable
- [The Weekly Quill — Taboo Topics – Politically Poisoned Probabilities](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/09/the-weekly-quill-taboo-topics-politically-poisoned-probabilities/)
- [State-Level Aggregated Payrolls Flag a Negative Payrolls Print in June’s Second Revision](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/25/state-level-aggregated-payrolls-flag-a-negative-payrolls-print-in-junes-second-revision/) - QUICK QUILL — In June, the latest month for which data are available, the aggregate of state-level payrolls came in at -65,000, an outright decline. In history to 1990, declines of this magnitude have predicted a decline of 67% of the time, suggesting a strong probability that June payrolls are revised into the red upon being
- [No Interrobang Needed](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/25/no-interrobang-needed/) - To express both confusion and excitement, an author might place a question mark and an exclamation point at a statement’s end. In 1962, advertiser Martin K. Speckter thought it more efficient to merge the two symbols into one like so: (‽). He shared his idea in a magazine called TYPEtalks, prompting readers to name this
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 8.23.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/23/saturday-intelligence-briefing-8-23-25/)
- [Labor Market Data Provide Ample Evidence for Powell to Signal the Onset of an Easing Cycle](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/22/labor-market-data-provide-ample-evidence-for-powell-to-signal-the-onset-of-an-easing-cycle/) - QUICK QUILL — Yesterday’s crosscurrents from August manufacturing surveys revealed an underlying theme of investment away from goods and toward services. The path for construction starts piles onto reasons for the Fed to cut. And with continuing claims reaching a fresh cycle high in the first week of August, it should be enough for Powell to
- [The Dismal Science with a Twist](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/22/the-dismal-science-with-a-twist/) - The origin of the iconic chocolate-vanilla soft-serve twist, a staple of ice cream stands, is a tale shrouded in both innovation and a bit of a mystery. While many credit J.F. “Grandpa” McCullough of Dairy Queen with pioneering soft serve, the distinctive twist is often attributed to Harold William “Bill” Atkins. He developed the method
- [The Weekly Quill — A Blighted Labor Market Calls Out to Jerome Powell Across the Tetons](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/21/the-weekly-quill-a-blighted-labor-market-calls-out-to-jerome-powell-across-the-tetons/)
- [The Housing Sector Can’t Wait for the Fed](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/21/the-housing-sector-cant-wait-for-the-fed/) - QUICK QUILL — The inversion between leading building permits and coincident housing starts which is concentrated in the South eerily echoes 2007. “Bullish” mortgage application data should be faded as continuing claims are creeping higher, just like in 2007. Lack of worker wage and promotion satisfaction adds to the din. The FOMC Minutes’ tilt toward inflation
- [Housing Can’t Get No Satisfaction](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/21/housing-cant-get-no-satisfaction/) - On May 6, 1965, on their first U.S. tour, The Rolling Stones played to 3,000 people at Jack Russell Stadium in Clearwater, Florida. According to the St. Petersburg Times, about 200 young fans got in an altercation with a line of police officers at the show. The Stones made it through just four songs as
- [Supply Chain Volatility and Weakness in Upstream Chemicals Flag PMI Downside](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/20/supply-chain-volatility-and-weakness-in-upstream-chemicals-flag-pmi-downside/) - QUICK QUILL — Supply chain volatility is cooling. Deflationary supply chain risks are also emanating from: 1) a potential Chinese yuan depreciation and 2) a sharp slowing in Germany’s upstream chemicals sector. Downside surprises in tomorrow’s Germany manufacturing PMI and the Philly Fed manufacturing index should not be ruled out. TAKEAWAYS The GEP Global Supply Chain
- [Mine! Mine! Mine!](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/20/mine-mine-mine/) - Andrew Stanton’s father founded a company that worked on radar for the Department of Defense; his mother had pursued an acting career. It’s no wonder that Stanton combined both sides of his parents’ minds to earn a degree in Character Animation from California Institute of the Arts. In 1990, he came aboard Pixar Animation Studios
- [Hubbub in America’s Service Hub](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/19/hubbub-in-americas-service-hub/) - Movie shorts of the World War II era were made of wildly different ingredients than today’s versions. An animated character reclining on a piece of ordnance intently reading a spoof of the 1942 book Victory Through Air Power begins laughing uproariously. He then turns to the audience and shares the proclamation that gremlins wreck American
- [Home Sellers Continue to Bleed Pricing Power](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/19/home-sellers-continue-to-bleed-pricing-power/) - QUICK QUILL — A relapse in the New York Fed’s Service Survey introduces the risk of downside in S&P’s Global national read come Thursday. Wage slack and weakening housing in the Northeast pile onto disinflationary pressures being more than just a regional story. Zillow’s nonstop rise in Single-Family Home Inventory for Sale fits with NAHB Present
- [Mixed Macro Messages on Capex and Consumers Cloud Rate-Cut Path](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/18/mixed-macro-messages-on-capex-and-consumers-cloud-rate-cut-path/) - QUICK QUILL — Despite the rebound in Empire New Orders-Inventories spread, moribund Capacity Utilization and sinking capex plans in the New York Fed District warn disinflationary winds will keep blowing. Conflicts abound on consumers as well, with a recovery in inflation-adjusted Retail Sales on a six-month annualized basis refuted by retreating buying conditions for autos, homes
- [O.S.M Pancakes](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/18/o-s-m-pancakes/) - They say breakfast is the most important meal of the day, and in our view, there are few pleasures in life as great (or as calorie-dense) as the American diner variety. Our go-to order: a cup of black coffee (preferably in an old ceramic mug), two eggs (scrambled with cheese), sausage links, and a side
- [The Saturday Intelligence Briefing — August 16, 2025](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/16/the-saturday-intelligence-briefing-august-16-2025/)
- [The Weekly Quill — The Fully Edited Version – Contemplating Tough Economic Love](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/15/the-weekly-quill-the-fully-edited-version-contemplating-tough-economic-love/)
- [Tariff Pass-Through Overshadows Bearish Capex](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/15/tariff-pass-through-overshadows-bearish-capex/) - QUICK QUILL — The PPI for trade services revealed sharp margin expansion in July for wholesalers and retailers – and notably for consumer goods – flipping the script of recent months. This said, capex demand destruction alongside the slump in shipments and labor (read: continuing claims) countered the hot PPI. Upside in UMich consumer expectations would
- [Just Passing Through](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/15/just-passing-through/) - “Just passing through” emerged from the transient, often solitary, existence of people on the American Frontier during the 19th century. Trappers, prospectors, and pioneers were constantly on the move, driven by the search for furs, gold, or new land. When they arrived in a settlement, their temporary status was a defining characteristic of their identity.
- [Hiring and M&A Flag a Fed that’s Further Behind the Curve](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/14/hiring-and-ma-flag-a-fed-thats-further-behind-the-curve/) - QUICK QUILL — State hiring declines in June were so pervasive they echoed past recessions. To be sure, the layoff breadth is not as widespread as the hiring weakness. But the collapse in the M&A cycle is adding downgrade risks to private demand and bleeding the revenue problem from Main Street to Wall Street. This makes
- [Not Hire and Hire](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/14/not-hire-and-hire/) - SPENGLER: We need something that everyone can get behind, a symbol -- STANTZ: Something that appeals to the best in each and every one of us -- SPENGLER: Something good -- VENKMAN: And pure -- WINSTON: And decent. After the Ghostbusters failed to shoot their way through the negatively charged psychomagnotheric slime shell around the
- [Upping Conviction for Up-in-Quality Credit and the Bull Steepener](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/13/upping-conviction-for-up-in-quality-credit-and-the-bull-steepener/) - QUICK QUILL — Tuesday’s relief rally at the short end of the Treasury curve was driven by July’s core CPI not surprisingly to the upside. Elsewhere, NFIB noted that business owners worries about ‘Inflation’ and ‘Poor Sales’ (an unemployment proxy) were balanced for the first time in four years, supporting our tactical bull steepener view. The top-line implications
- [Rage Rooms Spell Relief](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/13/rage-rooms-spell-relief/) - Need to blow off some steam? Might we suggest a rage room to break things? In 2008, Japan originated rage rooms, also known as anger rooms or smash rooms, as a means by which to alleviate stress in a controlled environment. These facilities gained popularity during the Great Recession and spread to other countries –
- [Clash Between Tariff Concerns for Goods and Faltering Demand for Services Labor](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/12/clash-between-tariff-concerns-for-goods-and-faltering-demand-for-services-labor/) - QUICK QUILL — The tariff narrative is hot. The effective tariff rate hit 10% in June, four times the March level. And short-run (one-year) inflation swaps have moved up in kind. Despite these rumblings, long-run (5-year/5-year) inflation swaps remain contained. For today’s CPI, upward price pressures cannot be ruled out for core goods. However, easing Main
- [Tariffied](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/12/tariffied/) - The Oxford English Dictionary (OED) is the accepted authority on the English language, an unmatched guide to the meaning and usage of 500,000 words and phrases. As a historical reference, the OED delves as far back as the 11th century, forensically scraping 3.5 million quotations from classic literature, periodicals, film scripts, song lyrics and social
- [Overly Burdened Household Balance Sheets Collide with High Youth Unemployment](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/11/overly-burdened-household-balance-sheets-collide-with-high-youth-unemployment/) - QUICK QUILL — Outstanding credit card debt contracted in the year ended June 2025 to a level weaker than any recession onset since 1970. In that consumption grew in the recessions of 1970, 1982 and 2001 suggests the current recession could be more prolonged and deeper than those which punctuated the postwar era. Distress emanating from the record
- [High and Low](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/11/high-and-low/) - Described as “the pictorial Shakespeare of our time” by Steven Spielberg, “a giant” by Martin Scorsese, and “one of my true heroes” by Spike Lee, Japanese filmmaker Akira Kurosawa is one of cinema’s all-time greats. While best known for epics like Seven Samurai, we’re partial to High and Low, his 1963 crime thriller in which
- [Revival’s Revival](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/08/revivals-revival/) - Hot chicken can get burned. On January 21, 2025, Revival, a Twin Cities’ (once) fan favorite fried chicken spot, abruptly closed its doors. All four locations in South Minneapolis, St. Louis Park, St Paul and the Market at Malcolm Yards shuttered, leaving 100 employees without work. Much changed in the decade since 2015, when Chef
- [CEOs and Big Data Herald Rising Joblessness and Lower Rates](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/08/ceos-and-big-data-herald-rising-joblessness-and-lower-rates/) - QUICK QUILL — U.S. CEO confidence revived in the third quarter, but the C-suite script of cuts to capex and hiring plans and a focus on enhancing productivity speaks to more visible end-of-cycle concerns. To that end, big data on the layoff front underpin the fresh cycle high in continuing claims and emerging risks from the
- [And Now It’s Time for a Breakdown](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/07/and-now-its-time-for-a-breakdown/) - He says that he’s changed, and he’s making lots of promises. But he had his chance and blew it. He will never see your love again. When ladies want to let their guy know, in no uncertain terms, that it’s over, only one song suffices: “My Lovin’ (You’re Never Gonna Get It),” by the sophisticated
- [Asymmetric Housing Risks Defy the Fed’s Dual Mandate](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/07/asymmetric-housing-risks-defy-the-feds-dual-mandate/) - QUICK QUILL — Housing developments lean asymmetrically from a dual mandate view, i.e., weaker employment amid cooler pricing, and reinforce a restart to Fed easing. Elevated mortgage rejection expectations intersecting with cycle-low in home selling conditions illuminate the capitulation in real estate employment. Tentatively fading the uplift in mortgage applications as an improving demand signal seems
- [Higher Conviction for a Bull Steepener](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/06/higher-conviction-for-a-bull-steepener/) - QUICK QUILL — Global trade compression, broad based weakness in both ISM Employment gauges, and ISM Backlog breadth and excess supply conditions in the service sector all are flagging disinflation. These factors reinforce QI’s call for a tactical bull steepening trade. TAKEAWAYS The average of ISM Mfg and Services Employment fell to 44.9 in July, a
- [Unlucky 45](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/06/unlucky-45/) - Death, misfortune and the “Mark of the Beast,” denoted by the most prominent unlucky numbers across different cultures: ‘4,’ ’13,’ and ‘666.’ The last two are commonplace. However, the number ‘4’ lives in its own infamy. In Japan, it’s considered unlucky because its pronunciation, shi, is identical to the word for “death’ (shi). This linguistic
- [Third Quarter Risks for Capex and Consumers Emerging](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/05/third-quarter-risks-for-capex-and-consumers-emerging/) - QUICK QUILL — Downgrade risks to the capex and consumer outlooks are on QI’s watchlist. Recent evidence suggests cooling in these two cyclical sectors that underpin private demand. From a fundamental perspective, it argues for reduced exposures to cyclicals. TAKEAWAYS Per the NY Fed’s Credit Access Survey, involuntary account closures rose to 8% in June vs.
- [Summer Song to Summer Swoon](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/05/summer-song-to-summer-swoon/) - Rock instrumental guitarists didn’t cross over into success until the late-1980s. Joe Satriani, who had multiple gold and platinum albums, arguably reigned as king of that era. “Surfing with the Alien,” the title track of his October 1987 second album ranks near the top with his fans and peaked at number 29 on the Billboard
- [Neither Trump nor Powell Has a Labor Market Data Leg on Which to Stand](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/04/neither-trump-nor-powell-has-a-labor-market-data-leg-on-which-to-stand/) - QUICK QUILL — The president and chair of the Fed are waxing equally delusional. The U.S. labor market is neither “booming” nor “solid.” And yet, both are in denial about the true state of the U.S. economy, as if in some strange footrace to mislead the U.S. public. The breadth of private sector May and June
- [Leaves of Grass](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/04/leaves-of-grass/) - “Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself, (I am large, I contain multitudes).” The above stanza is arguably the most famous excerpt from Walt Whitman’s “Song of Myself,” the first of 12 poems published in Leaves of Grass. Whitman, possibly America’s most heralded poet, trailblazed with a free-flowing style that snubbed traditional
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 8.2.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/02/saturday-intelligence-briefing-8-2-25/)
- [The Weekly Quill — The Right Place at the Wrong Time – The U.S. Consumer is Caught Out](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/01/the-weekly-quill-the-right-place-at-the-wrong-time-the-u-s-consumer-is-caught-out/)
- [Slackers](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/31/slackers/) - “Now let me give you a nickel’s worth of free advice, young man.” —Mr. Strickland to Marty McFly in 1985 Stanford S. “Gerald” Strickland, a.k.a., Mr. Strickland, was the hard-as-nails principal of Hill Valley High School in the Back to the Future movie series. His character was stiff, uncompromising, pedantic and humorless. Strickland was a
- [Lower hurdle for a NFP downside surprise means volatility looks relatively cheap](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/01/lower-hurdle-for-a-nfp-downside-surprise-means-volatility-looks-relatively-cheap/) - QUICK QUILL — Caution emanating from the Chicago PMI rang true in Challenger’s depressed hiring plans. The fundamentals behind the unemployment mix imply fading the uptick in wage pressures from the second quarter’s Employment Cost Index. Moreover, consumer cyclical gauges are cooling in tandem, setting up a weak jump-off point for third-straight quarter consumer spending. With
- [Happy National Water Balloon Day!](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/08/01/happy-national-water-balloon-day/) - The town of Newmarket, New Hampshire’s recreation department is known for its wacky thinking. In 2003, they merited a Guinness World Record for creating the largest game of Pick-Up Sticks, commanding a half-page colored photo in the 50th Anniversary edition of the Guinness World Book of Records. What was next? Subsequently being crowned the founder
- [Rate Asymmetry Heading into Friday’s Job Report](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/31/rate-asymmetry-heading-into-fridays-job-report/) - QUICK QUILL — Powell stated that inflation is further away from the Fed’s goal than employment. But housing slack and weaker rent metrics point to continued shelter disinflation. Moreover, stable private demand inflation, below-trend private growth, and below-trend private job creation are consistent with a backdrop of persistent labor slack. For tomorrow’s U.S. Employment Report, positivity
- [Prepare for a Dovish Hold](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/30/prepare-for-a-dovish-hold/) - QUICK QUILL — Evidence of service, wage and housing disinflation was on display on yesterday’s economic docket and countered tariff fears of higher goods inflation. A Fed hold is priced for today, but the non-tariff related disinflation via multiple sources should grow the ranks of protesting doves. TAKEAWAYS Dallas Fed Retail Current Prices Paid rose from
- [Sailing the Doldrums](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/30/sailing-the-doldrums/) - According to Google AI, “‘doldrums’ refers to a low-pressure area near the equator known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)… a region of calm or light winds that often becalmed sailing ships, leading to frustration and delays.” At QI, we go way beyond AI. First: The scientific explanation of the Doldrums -- a low-pressure area
- [Higher Inflation Expectations Clashing with a Margin Squeeze and Below-Trend Growth Risks in the Lone Star State](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/29/higher-inflation-expectations-clashing-with-a-margin-squeeze-and-below-trend-growth-risks-in-the-lone-star-state/) - QUICK QUILL — The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing survey depicted higher inflation expectations two ways that add to evidence for a hold at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. Elsewhere, a current margin squeeze, unfavorable demand guidance and below-trend plans to build supply and add resources suggest below-trend national growth should resume after any bounce in tomorrow’s second-quarter GDP.
- [What’s Up with That?](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/29/whats-up-with-that/) - Name an absurd Saturday Night Live sketch with a ridiculously catchy song that also manages to descend into more and more ridiculousness with each new airing? We're talking about Kenan Thompson’s sketch, "What's Up with That?" that premiered in October 2009. Thompson came up with the idea of a talk show host so obsessed with
- [A Public Beratement Doubles Down on the Fed’s Policy Error](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/28/a-public-beratement-doubles-down-on-the-feds-policy-error/) - QUICK QUILL — It’s a shame Trump had to publicly humiliate Powell, who likely would have acquiesced to the messages in the hard and soft data come Wednesday. Alas, we can only add to the data pyre regional Fed surveys that hammer home a quick reversion to the industrial recession after a tariff-terror-induced short-lived reprieve. The
- [Spargelzeit!](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/28/spargelzeit/) - When the snow starts to melt and winter fades, springtime also heralds the arrival of Spargelzeit, or “asparagus time” in Germany. White asparagus (or “white gold” as it’s often called) is a delicacy in the European nation. Growing it requires keeping the asparagus shoots buried in soil as they grow so that photosynthesis cannot occur,
- [The Weekly Quill — One Big  Beautiful Building](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/26/the-weekly-quill-one-big-beautiful-building/)
- [And So It Goes](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/25/and-so-it-goes/) - “And So It Goes” holds an indescribably special place in QI’s heart. It’s our favorite, and we say that with respect to all songs ever recorded. As for the aptly named two-episode HBO Max documentary of the same name, it’s an expansive portrait of the life and music of Billy Joel, exploring the love, loss,
- [‘Too High for Too Long’ Wearing on Housing as Chicagoland Downside Risks Emerge](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/24/too-high-for-too-long-wearing-on-housing-as-chicagoland-downside-risks-emerge/) - QUICK QUILL — Existing home sales in the Northeast and West have been behind the plumb to a new nationwide cycle low. Discounting is being picked up by the Mortgage Bankers’ average home purchase loan size falling below levels from 1-2 years ago. Weakening in Chicago Fed data suggests this region might be prone to emerging
- [Big Housing Figures and Chicagoland Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/24/big-housing-figures-and-chicagoland-risks/) - The Amoskeag Manufacturing Company was founded in Manchester, New Hampshire in 1810. From modest beginnings, it grew throughout the 19th century into the largest cotton textile plant in the world. At its height in 1915, the mill employed 17,000, spanned one-and-a-half miles with about 30 buildings, and straddled the Merrimack River on Manchester’s west side.
- [Assessing a Fed Policy Error from West Coast to East Coast](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/23/assessing-a-fed-policy-error-from-west-coast-to-east-coast/) - QUICK QUILL — Business surveys covering California and the Richmond and Philadelphia Fed Districts fit with below-normal demand and above-normal inflation. Labor risks from these areas though suggest the Fed is committing a policy error. TAKEAWAYS California PMI New Orders continue to expand at 54.3 but are well below the 62.5 average from 2010-2019 and a
- [From Coast to Coast](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/23/from-coast-to-coast/) - On May 10, 1869, Central Pacific Railroad President Leland Stanford used a silver hammer to drive a ceremonial golden rail spike that completed the 1,912-mile-long Central Pacific and Union Pacific Railroads’ tracks at Promontory Summit, Utah. The ceremony marked the opening of the United States’ first transcontinental railroad. The culmination of the six-year construction project
- [Channel Checks Lean Dovish for the Bank of Canada](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/22/channel-checks-lean-dovish-for-the-bank-of-canada/) - QUICK QUILL — Rates markets are not pricing high probabilities of a Bank of Canada rate cut this year. Our channel checks lean dovish. An assessment of risks and uncertainties high on the BoC’s watchlist shows policymakers should lean dovish. Canada’s export cycle remains challenged from the U.S. outlook and caution prevails for business investment and
- [Brewing Before the BoC](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/22/brewing-before-the-boc/) - Conjure up “Canada” and “beer” in conjunction and the McKenzie Brothers come to mind. This said, it’s no surprise that the history of Canadian lager way predates a 1983 comedy film. Carling’s roots stretch back to 1818 in London, Ontario. As the story goes, after British farmer Thomas Carling immigrated to The Great White North,
- [Volatility is Embarrassingly Underpriced](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/21/volatility-is-embarrassingly-underpriced/) - QUICK QUILL — The biggest disconnect on the Street is no longer between the data and high yield bond spreads, which has become so glaring as to be comical. Junk spreads are nearly a third of the levels that prevailed the last three times expectations for rising unemployment and falling home prices were so high in
- [Mrs. de Winter](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/21/mrs-de-winter/) - “I want you to get rid of all these things.” “But these are Mrs. de Winter’s things.” “I am Mrs. de Winter now.” Alfred Hitchcock’s first project made in America, 1940’s Rebecca, was his sole masterpiece to win the Academy Award for Best Picture. An adaptation of a Daphne du Maurier novel of
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 7.19.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/19/saturday-intelligence-briefing-7-19-25/)
- [U.K. Labor Data Argue for a Half-Point BoE Rate Cut While Slowing Real Retail Sales Serve as (Yet Another) Fed Wake-Up Call](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/18/u-k-labor-data-argue-for-a-half-point-boe-rate-cut-while-slowing-real-retail-sales-serve-as-yet-another-fed-wake-up-call/) - QUICK QUILL — Thursday’s economic data highlighted labor weakness in the U.K. that should convince BoE policymakers to cut rates next month. A half-point move should be discussed alongside the near-fully priced quarter-point cut presently. U.S. data surprised to the upside in the aggregate but gave mixed messages for a Fed in wait-and-see mode. A loss
- [The Yellow Light: Wait or Don’t Wait?](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/18/the-yellow-light-wait-or-dont-wait/) - In the early 1920s, Garrett Morgan was driving with his two sons in their car and witnessed a horrifying accident between a car and a horse-drawn buggy. A young girl was thrown from the buggy and the injured horse was humanely euthanized in the street. Rebekah Oakes, historian for the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office,
- [The Weekly Quill — La Vita Lenta – The Mysteries of Slow-Moving Global Credit](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/17/the-weekly-quill-la-vita-lenta-the-mysteries-of-slow-moving-global-credit/)
- [PPI Echoes CPI and New York Fed Services Support Continued Weakening in New York State’s Labor Market](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/17/ppi-echoes-cpi-and-new-york-fed-services-support-continued-weakening-in-new-york-states-labor-market/) - QUICK QUILL — Overestimation for the core-core PPI echoed that of the core CPI. And while Industrial Production beat expectations, it did little to quell yesterday’s bull flattener. Looking under the factory hood showed tech output expanded rapidly, but not much else outside the space. The New York Fed’s service price metrics echoed the pressure exhibited
- [Echo..Echo…Echo…](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/17/echo-echoecho/) - “An American artist might extract from such scenery as Echo Canyon, a system of architecture as original and as national as Egypt ever borrowed from her sandstone ledges or the North of Europe from the depths of her fir forests.” British explorer Sir Richard Francis Burton in 1860 Utah’s Echo Canyon trail was one of
- [Forecasters Have Misled the Fed on Core Inflation This Year](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/16/forecasters-have-misled-the-fed-on-core-inflation-this-year/) - QUICK QUILL — Persistent overestimation of core inflation has coincided with Fed tightening cycles in the past. At present, the five-month strength of core misses has further misled Fed officials committing a policy error as they pause on the easing front. To that end, short-run underlying core inflation trends point to more disinflation compounded by a
- [Bad Advice Could Feed a Policy Error](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/16/bad-advice-could-feed-a-policy-error/) - “What was the worst advice you have ever received?” Consider this sampling from a 2021 buzzfeed.com article that went viral: “In my early 20s, my stepdad encouraged us (my sister, my brother, and I) to ‘max out our credit cards, then file bankruptcy.’ My sister did it. My brother did it. I didn’t. He’s insulted
- [Watch for Upside in Core Goods & Downside in Core Services and Empire](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/15/watch-for-upside-in-core-goods-downside-in-core-services-and-empire/) - QUICK QUILL — With CPI on tap, the latest Cass freight gauges lean higher for core goods inflation and lower for core services inflation. Trade war volatility also has also disrupted China’s exports to the U.S. and subsequently rail traffic. Chemicals, an upstream ingredient for the industrial cycle, are showing a contraction in rail carloads as
- [Da da da DUT da DUHHH! CHARGE!](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/15/da-da-da-dut-da-duhhh-charge/) - “An Instrument of the Lord, He Brought Joy to the World.” So reads the inscription on the gravestone of Tommy Walker, the producer of live entertainment in roles as the University of Southern California’s (USC) band director, Disneyland’s first entertainment director, and fireworks director at the 1984 Los Angeles Summer Olympics. As a USC undergrad,
- [Investor Optimism Waning Despite Risky Assets at All-Time Highs](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/14/investor-optimism-waning-despite-risky-assets-at-all-time-highs/) - QUICK QUILL — Using tomorrow's three-tenths gain in the June CPI as a deflator, real worker labor income should decline by 0.5% month-over-month, the second negative in the last three months. This showing would translate to a -1.3% annualized drop in the three months ended June, the weakest stretch in three years. Challenged consumer purchasing power could
- [A Place in the Sun](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/14/a-place-in-the-sun/) - After seeing A Place in the Sun on its release, Charlie Chaplin called the 1951 film “the greatest movie ever made about America.” One of Hollywood’s great tales of doomed romance, Montgomery Clift plays George Eastman, a poor and distant relative of the wealthy Eastman family. While at a party at his uncle’s mansion, George
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 7.12.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/12/saturday-intelligence-briefing-7-12-25/)
- [Let Yields Run Higher Before Buying the Dip](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/11/let-yields-run-higher-before-buying-the-dip/) - QUICK QUILL — A drop in initial claims and optimistic words from Delta’s CEO set a short-term bullish tone. However, continuing claims continue to suggest higher unemployment is the path of least resistance. BofA’s June bank card data pointed to goods spending outperforming services. Here, it was spending on staples vis-à-vis discretionary consumption wherewithal. The market
- [Playing Both Sides](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/11/playing-both-sides/) - With today’s music released and accessed digitally via streaming services, the traditional A-side/B-side redefines obsolescence. Back in the days of vinyl, artists released their hit singles on 7-inch 45 rpm records. The boom in the pop music scene by making music more accessible to the average person was phenomenal. The A-side was reserved for the
- [The Weekly Quill — Shameful Schadenfreude — Crossing the Line in the Great State of Texas](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/09/the-weekly-quill-shameful-schadenfreude-crossing-the-line-in-the-great-state-of-texas/)
- [Fade the “Holiday Week” Fade in Jobless Claims](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/10/fade-the-holiday-week-fade-in-jobless-claims/) - QUICK QUILL — The June New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations contained evidence of labor market loosening, on par with the disappointment in underlying worker payroll growth. Moreover, households’ financial situation remains mired in pessimism. Why else would credit card borrowing be trending lower? With jobless claims on tap today, big data from Google Trends
- [Testing the Mr. Zimmerman Rule](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/10/testing-the-mr-zimmerman-rule/) - Grandmothers are the best storytellers. If they weren’t, their grandchildren wouldn’t gleefully indulge in their recanting of favorite memories. In the case of QI’s new Director of Research, Jonathan Basile, one is seared into his mind. It starred his Nana Violet’s longtime neighbors, the Zimmermans. Late one afternoon, Mrs. Zimmerman came running over to Nana
- [The Time is Nigh to Take Profits on Small Caps](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/09/the-time-is-night-to-take-profits-on-small-caps/) - QUICK QUILL — Small cap equities have outperformed large caps since the April 8th low point. However, Main Street caution flags have been raised for top-line growth from both the NFIB and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Add in recessionary levels of capital expenditures, reduced hiring plans and sales concerns consistent with a 5-handle on the
- [Soliloquy vs Somniloquy](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/09/soliloquy-vs-somniloquy/) - Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow, Creeps in this petty pace from day to day To the last syllable of recorded time, And all our yesterdays have lighted fools The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle! Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player That struts and frets his hour upon the stage And
- [The “Resilient U.S. Growth Narrative” Is Being Stress-Tested](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/08/the-resilient-u-s-growth-narrative-is-being-stress-tested/) - QUICK QUILL — The notion of a resilient U.S. growth picture is evident in multiple forecasts and implied projections via business surveys. This said, a growth scare has been tabled by the short-run trend in worker aggregate hours worked. Add to that the double inversion in both ISM manufacturing and services New Orders-Inventories spreads, which portray
- [Tipping the Scales](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/08/tipping-the-scales/) - American inventor Thaddeus Fairbanks was chock-full of innovations when he built a foundry in 1823. First and second up -- the cast iron plow and a stove. By 1824, his brother Erastus joined Thaddeus’ lucrative business and together they formed the E & T Fairbanks Company in St. Johnsbury, Vermont. Once in business, the two
- [Aggregate Income Declining as Job Market Scarring Hits Levels Seen at the End of the Great Recession](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/07/aggregate-income-declining-as-job-market-scarring-hits-levels-seen-at-the-end-of-the-great-recession/) - QUICK QUILL — This week sees Delta and Conagra kick off first-quarter earnings season. Next week follows with the biggest banks, Fastenal, J.B. Hunt, Albertson’s, Alaska Air, TSMC, GE Aerospace, PepsiCo, and others. According to QI friend Adam Josephson, after slightly recovering to a 2% YoY growth rate in the fourth quarter amidst post-election euphoria, Retailers’
- [Smoke Gets in Your Eyes](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/07/smoke-gets-in-your-eyes/) - “They asked me how I knew my true love was true Oh, I of course replied Something here inside cannot be denied They said someday you’ll find all who love are blind Oh, when your heart’s on fire You must realize smoke gets in your eyes” The song “Smoke Gets in Your Eyes”
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 7.5.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/05/saturday-intelligence-briefing-7-5-25/)
- [Palpable Risk for Downside in Nonfarm Payrolls](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/03/palpable-risk-for-downside-in-nonfarm-payrolls/) - QUICK QUILL — ADP’s surprise June job losses weren’t sufficient to close Treasury yields lower on Wednesday. Under the surface, a weakening in small-firm job growth suggests the BLS birth/death adjustment is overstating employment. More broadly, multiple sources for hiring and a quickening in layoffs makes a compelling case that ADP weakness is signaling the correct
- [“Utah! Get me two!”](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/03/utah-get-me-two/) - According to the ever-reliable Merriam-Webster, hyperbole is a literary and rhetorical device defined as extravagant exaggeration. In Hollywood, hyperbole is often born of improvisation. Take 1991’s Point Break starring Patrick Swayze and Keanu Reeves. As good as some of the lines were, it was co-star Gary Busey who’s credited with one of the movie’s most
- [The Weekly Quill — “What Percentage of Americans  Are Debt-Free?”](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/02/the-weekly-quill-what-percentage-of-americans-are-debt-free/)
- [Vol Looks Cheap as Construction and Manufacturing Risks Mount](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/02/vol-looks-cheap-as-construction-and-manufacturing-risks-mount/) - QUICK QUILL — The May JOLTS report suggests upward revisions to nonfarm payroll growth. But cyclical construction and manufacturing industries face different fates based on persistent weakness in construction spending and a key factory employment gauge. The inversion in the ISM orders-inventories spread raises the risk for a bounce in equity volatility, which at present, looks
- [Arguing Balls and Strikes](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/02/arguing-balls-and-strikes/) - Rule 8.02(a) Comment: Players leaving their position in the field or on base, or managers or coaches leaving the bench or coaches box, to argue on BALLS AND STRIKES will not be permitted. They should be warned if they start for the plate to protest the call. If they continue, they will be ejected from
- [Chicago and Dallas Feds Tag Team Higher Unemployment Risks and a Bullish Treasury Theme](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/01/chicago-and-dallas-feds-tag-team-higher-unemployment-risks-and-a-bullish-treasury-theme/) - QUICK QUILL — Chicago’s underperformance relative to other regional surveys points to a continued sluggish ISM outcome. Separately, the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey’s persistent underperformance suggests broader growth headwinds as the third quarter gets underway. The margin squeeze narrative alongside demand/recession and elevated uncertainty fit with a defensive backdrop that leans toward labor cost-cutting in the
- [Lagging in Chicago and Dallas](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/07/01/lagging-in-chicago-and-dallas/) - The Chicago Marathon in its current form has been run since 1977. This year’s marks the 47th over the popular flat and fast course that’s produced four world and several national records. The race starts and finishes in Grant Park, features well over one million spectators, and traverses through 29 neighborhoods, also boasts being the
- [Consumer Spending Slides to Post-Pandemic Low](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/30/consumer-spending-slides-to-post-pandemic-low/) - QUICK QUILL — Holiday-shortened weeks have rarely been so jam-packed with data releases. But markets are not keying off data, at least not the stock market. Rather, consumer spending falling by the most in the post-pandemic era has been received as sufficiently bad to break the logjam on the 10-year Treasury yield. After appearing to hit
- [Strawberries & Cream](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/30/strawberries-cream/) - The 138th edition of the Wimbledon Championships kicks off today, arguably the most prestigious and tradition-rooted of tennis’s major tournaments. An all-white dress code is strictly enforced (one that drove a boycott by Andre Agassi from 1988-1990), the Royal Family are guests of honor, and spectators consume thousands of servings of Strawberries & Cream over
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 6.28.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/28/saturday-intelligence-briefing-6-28-25/)
- [CFOs Reinforce Arrested Exports and Cycle-High Continuing Claims](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/27/cfos-reinforce-arrested-exports-and-cycle-high-continuing-claims/) - QUICK QUILL — Downside export risks that were tabled last month were realized this month. This adds to growth downgrade risks that tariff-affected firms have made blatantly clear, according to the second-quarter CFO Survey. A critical mass of executives, even those not directly impacted by tariffs, calling for below-trend GDP growth point to higher unemployment risk
- [Tooting Our Horn](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/27/tooting-our-horn/) - Trumpets have trumpeted since antiquity when humans discovered that resonant sounds could be produced by blowing into animal horns and conch shells. Around 1500 BC, craftsmen began creating their own trumpets from wood, metal or ceramic. These ancient horns have been found all over the world in places like Asia, South America, Scandinavia and Egypt.
- [The Weekly Quill — Revisiting the Past — Questioning the Magnetism of Commercial Real Estate](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/26/the-weekly-quill-revisiting-the-past-questioning-the-magnetism-of-commercial-real-estate/)
- [The Fed is Too Tight to Free the Housing Market](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/26/the-fed-is-too-tight-to-free-the-housing-market/) - QUICK QUILL — The Fed’s ‘Higher for Longer’ continues to be an anvil on the housing market. Yesterday’s May New Home Sales was the latest casualty. The slump in home sales is bleeding into a stall in home goods’ spending with no relief from affordability in sight. Oversupply in the new home space suggests builders are
- [How Many Balloons Does It Take to Make Houses Fly?](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/26/how-many-balloons-does-it-take-to-make-houses-fly/) - May 2009’s release of Pixar’s Up was greeted with accolades for its themes, screenplay, animation, characters, narrative, emotional depth, humor, musical score and its opening montage. Up was named one of the Top 10 films of 2009 by the American Film Institute and nominated for five Academy Awards, winning Best Animated Feature and Best Original
- [Tactical Bull Steepener Validated by Consumer Confidence](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/25/tactical-bull-steepener-validated-by-consumer-confidence/) - QUICK QUILL — CareerBuilder + Monster’s bankruptcy filing is a microcosm of the macro labor themes emanating from June’s Consumer Confidence report. Deteriorating current employment conditions and future income expectations as well as our QI Labor Shock Indicator fit with cooling travel plans (read: consumer discretionary) and a bull steepening in the yield curve. Present Situation
- [CareerBuilder + Monster = Chapter 11](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/25/careerbuilder-monster-chapter-11/) - September 16, 2024. “The combination of CareerBuilder and Monster brings together two strong, trusted, complementary brands to create a job board with greater scale and reach. Together, both companies can more effectively capitalize on prevailing trends in the market to deliver enhanced growth. Jeff Furman, CEO of the combined company, said: ‘I could not be
- [Margin Squeeze Prevails as Fed Officials Begin to Bend](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/24/margin-squeeze-prevails-as-fed-officials-begin-to-bend/) - QUICK QUILL — All eyes are warily trained on the geopolitical situation. Prior to last weekend’s escalation, U.S. procurement professionals were buying more than what their firms were producing, and upstream price pressures were bulging relative to downstream. The margin squeeze narrative remains at play in the broader service sector as underlying core inflation has behaved
- [Bye Bai Buy](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/24/bye-bai-buy/) - Christopher Walken: I don't want to make it tough. I just want to tell you that I've had enough. It might sound crazy, but it ain't no lie, baby. Bye bye bye. Narrator: Five calories, no artificial sweeteners, and tastes amazing. Bai. In 2016, entertainer Justin Timberlake became an investor in the beverage brand
- [Increased Global Supply Chain and U.S. Employment Sector Slack Intensify Pressure on the Fed](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/23/increased-global-supply-chain-and-u-s-employment-sector-slack-intensify-pressure-on-the-fed/) - QUICK QUILL — After a brief reprieve, the slowdown in the U.S. industrial sector has been unrelenting into 2025. Global supply chain slack is deepening, which is manifest in the Philly Fed falling by the most in one month in its history to 1968, the pandemic notwithstanding. At a broader level, aside from a stock market
- [Powell’s Kubrickian Staredown](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/23/powells-kubrickian-staredown/) - The “Kubrick stare” is a cinematic technique: The actor tilts their head towards the camera and looks out from under their brow line, often with a crazed look in their eyes or a menacing smile. The term was first coined by Douglas Milsome, a camera operator who worked on several of director Stanley Kubrick’s films.
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 6.21.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/21/saturday-intelligence-briefing-6-21-25/)
- [The Weekly Quill — The Deceiving Calm – Storm Clouds Build Off U.S. Consumer Shores](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/20/the-weekly-quill-the-deceiving-calm-storm-clouds-build-off-u-s-consumer-shores/)
- [Higher Unemployment Risk Colliding with Weaker Housing](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/20/higher-unemployment-risk-colliding-with-weaker-housing/) - QUICK QUILL — The Fed nodded to higher unemployment risk this year in the context of slower growth and higher inflation. The question: “Are they bearish enough on labor?” The third wave in layoffs as measured by initial claims continues to build while the highest WARN notices since the Great Recession flag a continued rise in
- [The Long and Short of Whiskers](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/20/the-long-and-short-of-whiskers/) - On land, the longest beard on a living person was grown by Canadian Sarwan Singh. As verified on October 15, 2022, in Surrey, British Columbia by Guinness World Records, his whiskers measured 8 feet, 3 inches long. And then there’s the legend of Hans Langseth, who had Singh beat by more than a factor of
- [Momentum Trade in Lower Treasury Yields Gains Steam](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/18/momentum-trade-in-lower-treasury-yields-gains-steam/) - QUICK QUILL — Signs from the service-intensive New York region suggest it may lead the labor loosening narrative in coming months. Moreover, hard cyclical indicators, Industrial Production and real Retail Sales volume, also point to a stall in current activity, while the housing slump in train is likely to persist. A current-year growth downgrade and 2025
- [The Boss and the Chairman of the Board](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/18/the-boss-and-the-chairman-of-the-board/) - Frank Sinatra had ties to the New York Yankees organization well before his version of the anthem “New York, New York” was played after his home team’s victories. Before Game 4 of the 1939 World Series, Sinatra had a chance dugout encounter with Lou Gehrig. And over the years, he was photographed with greats like
- [Cyclical Challenges Mounting](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/17/cyclical-challenges-mounting/) - QUICK QUILL — Per the first out-of-gate regional Empire factory survey, industrial performance faces downside risk. Moreover, a collapse in China’s exports to the U.S. flag the payback from the demand pulled forward ahead of threatened mega-tariffs. And disappointing sales tax collections validate signs of increasingly impaired U.S. households. Today’s Retail Sales could well disappoint, disabusing
- [Not Off to the Races](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/17/not-off-to-the-races/) - When back-to-back Triple Crown winners Seattle Slew and Affirmed squared off in the 1978 Marlboro Cup at Belmont Park, horse racing fans witnessed a first. Thoroughbredracing.com recalled: “Reunited with Steve Cauthen, Affirmed found himself in a much different position from his battles with Alydar. This time, he would be in the position of having to
- [Synchronous Deterioration in Households’ Views of Income, Assets and Debts a 4th Percentile Event](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/16/synchronous-deterioration-in-households-views-of-income-assets-and-debts-a-4th-percentile-event/) - QUICK QUILL — The University of Michigan’s preliminary June Consumer Sentiment print was anything but an ‘All Clear.’ Higher Unemployment Expectations fell from 64 to 58 but remained north of the recession dividing line of the 50-threshold. And while the Street breathed a sigh of relief as nosebleed inflation expectations finally cooled, households’ expectations for their
- [Paris, Texas](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/16/paris-texas/) - “How can you have two fathers?” “Just lucky I guess.” The 1984 film Paris, Texas opens with a rugged and ragged Travis Henderson emerging from the desert after years of aimless wandering. Seeking to reconnect with the family he abruptly abandoned, he goes to live with his brother Walt, who’s cared for Travis’s young son
- [The Weekly Quill — Live and Let Live — The Economic Promise & Perils of India](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/04/the-weekly-quill-live-and-let-live/)
- [Calling All Ophiophiles](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/13/calling-all-ophiophiles/) - “Snakes…why did it have to be snakes?” -- Indiana Jones (Harrison Ford) in 1981’s Raiders of the Lost Ark Unlike Indiana Jones, an ‘ophiophile’ is a person who loves snakes. If you’re partial to slithering, we hear ball pythons make good pets. Growing up to five feet in length, they’re generally well-mannered, easy to handle,
- [The Fade](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/10/the-fade/) - Throughout the 20th century, men’s haircuts evolved. The hot style in the 1920s and 1930s was slicked-back hair with a sharp part in the middle or side. The greaser style was all the rage in the 1950s as popularized by Elvis himself with that iconic bouffant and pomade to hold it in place. With the
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 6.14.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/14/saturday-intelligence-briefing-6-14-25/)
- [PPI and Jobless Claims Bolster Treasuries & Further Pressure Fed Officials](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/13/ppi-and-jobless-claims-bolster-treasuries-further-pressure-fed-officials/) - QUICK QUILL — Downside surprises in the PPI and upside surprises in jobless claims fed the rally in U.S. Treasurys, as did Thursday’s successful 30-year auction. Fundamental takeaways from the PPI – upstream price pressures and downstream margin squeezes – and claims – permanent labor scarring and higher exhaustion rates - add to the consumer sector’s
- [Weekly Quill — The Economic Betrayal of the American Public](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/11/weekly-quill-the-economic-betrayal-of-the-american-public-2/) - QI Research proudly announces a significant milestone: a decade of providing independent, data-driven macroeconomic strategy and analysis. The firm was founded in 2015 by Danielle DiMartino Booth following her departure from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, where she served under President Richard W. Fisher. Upon leaving, she launched the firm—originally branded as MoneyStrong—with a
- [Inflation Curves Continued to Flatten After Another Downside Core Print](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/12/inflation-curves-continued-to-flatten-after-another-downside-core-print/) - QUICK QUILL — Downside core CPI surprises, influenced by weak travel pricing power, have become a trend amidst the tariff terror. Inverted inflation curves driven by April’s Liberation Day announcements reached the tightest spreads all year as short-duration breakevens have fallen faster than long-duration inflation expectations. Flattening here should continue. TAKEAWAYS Core CPI was pegged to
- [Going Bananas for CPI](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/12/going-bananas-for-cpi/) - Day-o, day-o Daylight come and me wan' go home Day, me say day, me say day, me say day Me say day, me say day-o Daylight come and me wan' go home Work all night on a drink of rum Daylight come and me wan' go home Stack banana 'til de mornin' come Daylight come
- [The Weekly Quill — Semper Fi — Economically Respecting Sacrifice](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/11/the-weekly-quill-semper-fi-economically-respecting-sacrifice/)
- [Main Street Pricing Power Hopes Raise the Hurdle to Clear Today’s CPI](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/11/main-street-pricing-power-hopes-raise-the-hurdle-to-clear-todays-cpi/) - QUICK QUILL — Tariff truce hopes boosted small business optimism, echoing other soft data. However, current sales and elevated uncertainty suggest caution remains. And the interplay between NFIB’s inflation and sales concerns continue to point to an easier Fed not fully priced to move until October. For today’s CPI, small businesses raising prices and consumers hearing
- [The Committee of Five](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/11/the-committee-of-five-2/) - On June 11, 1776, the Continental Congress nominated a drafting committee of five men to compose a declaration of independence. The committee consisted of one southerner – Thomas Jefferson of Virginia – two New Englanders – John Adams of Massachusetts and Roger Sherman of Connecticut – and two from the Middle Colonies – Robert R.
- [Being Alert to Downside Risks to Core](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/10/being-alert-to-downside-risks-to-core/) - QUICK QUILL — Trade policy uncertainty fading in May reduced both inflation and unemployment expectations. This said, a disinflationary theme is still emergent according to NFIB and New York Fed surveys. Add in higher upstream inventory-to-sales ratios for durable goods and the conclusion is downstream downside price risks for core CPI should be tabled. Should core
- [Underemployment Takes Aim at Aggregate Income](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/09/underemployment-takes-aim-at-aggregate-income/) - QUICK QUILL — Even as 5.7 million gave up looking for work, a near record 20 million Americans are working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, working multiple jobs or are self-employed. Aggregate income is being pinched amidst a growing desperation as job insecurity spikes to a four-year high. Powell is willfully disregarding the reality
- [Taking a Bite of the BLS’s Madeleine](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/09/taking-a-bite-of-the-blss-madeleine/) - “No sooner had the warm liquid mixed with the crumbs touched my palate than a shiver ran through me and I stopped, intent upon the extraordinary thing that was happening to me… And at once the vicissitudes of life had become indifferent to me, its disaster innocuous, its brevity illusory… I had ceased now to
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 6.7.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/07/saturday-intelligence-briefing-6-7-25/)
- [Beware of Downside Risks in Today’s Employment Report](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/06/beware-of-downside-risks-in-todays-employment-report/) - QUICK QUILL — More signs of service sector slack and wage disinflation surfaced in the weekly jobless claims and Challenger job cuts. A significant decline in first quarter nonfarm demand adds to the downside bias going into today’s employment report. TAKEAWAYS Per Challenger, Gray, & Christmas, private job cut announcements have risen YoY in 12 of
- [Significance of the Third Wave](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/06/significance-of-the-third-wave/) - Elliott Wave Theory: A theory in technical analysis that attributes wave-like price patterns, identified at various scales, to trader psychology and investor sentiment. In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott developed a model for the underlying principles of financial markets by studying their price movements. An accountant by trade – and naturally adept with numbers –
- [Wednesday’s Data Dump Flags Service-Sector Job Losses](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/05/wednesdays-data-dump-flags-service-sector-job-losses/) - QUICK QUILL — Disappointments in auto sales, ADP, and ISM Services point to a deepening in the cyclical downturn. NACM’s service-sector credit concerns intensifying and weakening data across all 12 Fed Districts per the Beige Book add to the cacophony of soft data that heighten downside risks for the labor-intensive service sector with one day to
- [Services Not in Neutral Gear](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/05/services-not-in-neutral-gear/) - The initial aim of the automobile was to transmit power to wheels. Early methodologies involved exposed belts and pulleys in a single-speed transmission. But to get both acceleration and speed, more than one gear was needed. The transmission evolutionary ladder led us to the planetary gearset associated with automatic transmissions. An engineering marvel it remains
- [Disinflation is the Signal in Expected Net Positive Payroll Revisions](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/04/disinflation-is-the-signal-in-expected-net-positive-payroll-revisions/) - QUICK QUILL — Challenger’s CEO turnover report, the JOLTS survey and the China manufacturing PMI all flashed evidence of disinflation that counters tariff fears. While evidence of labor market loosening emanated from the first two releases, JOLTS also guided to the potential for upward revisions to April payrolls, which could offset any downside in the first
- [Histoire du Chausson aux Pommes](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/04/histoire-du-chausson-aux-pommes/) - Legend has it that in 1630 Saint Calais, France, in the Sarthe region, an epidemic was spreading. To allay suffering, the lady of the town, or Chatelaine, supplied the afflicted with flour and apples. We call the pastry that emerged from the kind act an apple turnover, or Chausson aux Pommes. Because the town thrives
- [Cyclical Labor to Be Further Pressured](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/03/cyclical-labor-to-be-further-pressured/) - QUICK QUILL — Yesterday’s ISM and Construction Spending reports flag a deepening in the industrial recession and warn payrolls in the Manufacturing, Transportation & Warehousing and Construction sectors could sustain losses as soon as this Friday’s employment report. Should disappointments surface, they would counter the tariff pause narrative that’s allayed recession anxiety. TAKEAWAYS The ISM Mfg
- [Francese or Francaise?](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/03/francese-or-francaise/) - Though the name implies a connection to French cuisine, the ‘Francese’ or ‘Francaise’ that’s become an icon of wedding buffets is rooted in upstate New York. In the post-war period, Veal Francese was introduced to Rochester-area restaurants. William Ramsey at the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle credits Tony Mammano and Joe Cairo for bringing the dish
- [Consumer Headwinds Gusting as Defensive Behavior Becomes More Visible](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/02/consumer-headwinds-gusting-as-defensive-behavior-becomes-more-visible/) - QUICK QUILL — Demand-sensitive supercore inflation declined for the first time since 2017, consumers are playing defense by ramping up saving, and job loss concerns are the most acute among the highest earners. Expect retailer guidance to remain challenged in the face of an increasingly challenged debt-dependent U.S. consumer. TAKEAWAYS Supercore PCE fell 0.02% MoM in
- [From Amarillo to Amagansett](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/06/02/from-amarillo-to-amagansett/) - On the east side of Amarillo, Texas, right off I-40, sits The Big Texan Steak Ranch & Brewery, known for its famous “72 oz. Steak Dinner Challenge.” Diners who choose to participate are given one hour to consume the following: An order of shrimp cocktail, A baked potato, A side salad, A roll (with butter),
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 5.31.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/31/saturday-intelligence-briefing-5-31-25/)
- [Piling onto the Cautious Consumer Discretionary Narrative](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/30/piling-onto-the-cautious-consumer-discretionary-narrative/) - QUICK QUILL — A higher 10-year term premium has underpinned long rates. A continued widening in the second quarter is coinciding with higher jobless claims, lower pending home sales and renewed declines in home-related spending. This adds to the cautious consumer discretionary narrative after first-quarter spending was revised down by half a percent. TAKEAWAYS NY Fed
- [Economic Tug of War](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/30/economic-tug-of-war/) - “To strengthen the bonds of friendship between International Sports Federations and to promote excellence in sport…to promote and coordinate World Championships and other competitions into an international, modern, multisport festival called World Games.” In 1980, this was the goal set out in the Constitution of the International World Games Association. Non-Olympic sports would finally have
- [Richmond and Dallas Fed Surveys Concur with Fed Minutes’ Recession Warning](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/29/richmond-and-dallas-fed-surveys-concur-with-fed-minutes-recession-warning/) - QUICK QUILL — Regional business surveys via the Richmond and Dallas Feds concur with the FOMC’s warnings of rising risks to the labor market and of recession. Moreover, industrial pessimism persisted in the Fifth District despite the tariff pause. The damage was not limited to the cyclical factory sector, however. Falling revenues across Richmond and Dallas
- [Heading South to Gauge Cyclical Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/29/heading-south-to-gauge-cyclical-risks/) - At the turn of the 20th century, Richmond, Virginia had a population of 85,050 and was the most densely populated city in the Southern United States. The 1900s heralded an economic shift away from its predominately agricultural base to the industrialization shaking the world at its foundation. By then, most Richmond homes were wired for
- [Yellow Flag Unfurled for Near-term Consumer Spending Prospects](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/28/yellow-flag-unfurled-for-near-term-consumer-spending-prospects/) - QUICK QUILL — Despite the ‘truce rally’ in forward-looking elements of Conference Board consumer confidence and Texas factory activity, caution remained the prevailing driver from a capex and labor perspective. Sizable shares of consumers have put money aside, dug into savings for current spending or postponed major purchases, travel and job-switching recently. Stay cautious consumer discretionary.
- [Getting Giddy with Dew and Data](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/28/getting-giddy-with-dew-and-data/) - Developed in the 1940s by brothers Barney and Ally Hartman of Knoxville, Tennessee, Mountain Dew was not conceived as a caffeine-infused neon green soft drink. Back then, soft drinks were sold regionally. That created a challenge for Barney and Ally as there was no locally produced lemon-lime soda to use as a mixer for cocktails.
- [Caution Flags Flying for U.S. Home Sales](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/27/caution-flags-flying-for-u-s-home-sales/) - QUICK QUILL — Housing surveys are anything but bullish for near-term demand prospects. With empowered buyers canceling deals at a record clip and supplies on the rise, house prices and builder margins are poised to remain pressured. TAKEAWAYS Though total single-family home sales rose 1.5% MoM to a 4.373 million SAAR in April, the trend is
- [Putting a Lid on Housing](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/27/putting-a-lid-on-housing/) - Established in 1845, the New York Knickerbockers were baseball’s first official team. But it would be another four years before they donned the baseball caps with which we associate the sport today. Initially, players wore “chip” or straw hats. Thankfully, it didn’t take long for teams – and sporting goods companies – to appreciate something
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 5.24.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/24/saturday-intelligence-briefing-5-24-25/)
- [Growth, Labor and Exports Risks to Growth Threaten to Overwhelm Inflationary Impulse](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/23/growth-labor-and-exports-risks-to-growth-threaten-to-overwhelm-inflationary-impulse/) - QUICK QUILL — Manufacturers and service providers will endeavor to pass on higher prices. Risks to growth from supply leading demand and to labor from staffing reductions colliding with emerging concerns on the export front could force a 2018-2019 repeat – the downside to GDP could overwhelm the tariff-induced upside in prices. TAKEAWAYS On a z-score
- [“I’m Gonna Try!” (…to Raise Prices)](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/23/im-gonna-try-to-raise-prices/) - Oh I'm gonna try, try I'm gonna try Gonna try to be myself Although myself will wonder why I'm gonna try, try I'm gonna try Gonna try to be myself this time Oh I'm gonna try, try Good night everybody I'm gonna try, I'm gonna try, I'm gonna try Make me wanna try, make me
- [Weekly Quill — The Economic Betrayal of the American Public](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/22/weekly-quill-the-economic-betrayal-of-the-american-public/)
- [Wage Disinflation Escapes the Treasury Market](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/22/wage-disinflation-escapes-the-treasury-market/) - QUICK QUILL — A deterioration of state labor breadth metrics validates QI’s double-dip recession call and suggests the holding pattern for state continuing claims breadth will soon end. With job insecurity elevated according to state quits breadth, wage disinflation is in the pipeline. This fundamental narrative runs counter to the bear steepening gripping the Treasury curve.
- [Hazards Ahead: Apply Within](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/22/hazards-ahead-apply-within/) - “Men wanted for hazardous journey. Low wages, bitter cold, long hours of complete darkness. Safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition in event of success.” Arguably the best job ad ever run, Sir Ernest Shackleton’s 1900 broadside appeal for the crew of the Endurance drew a reported 5,000 applicants. Shackleton narrowed it down to 27. The
- [Pennsylvania: A Nationwide Proxy Flagging Risks to Growth, Disinflation and Labor](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/21/pennsylvania-a-nationwide-proxy-flagging-risks-to-growth-disinflation-and-labor/) - QUICK QUILL — National and regional signals for capex from the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation, the Dodge Momentum Index, and the Philadelphia Fed suggest architects should remain pessimistic about their own outlook. Regional nonmanufacturing signals from the Third District were decidedly downbeat about underlying inflationary pressures and the local labor picture. With investors focused on
- [Pennsylvania’s Architectural Marvels](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/21/pennsylvanias-architectural-marvels/) - If you plan to visit the Quaker State this summer, three architectural wonders await you. Mill Run, Pennsylvania is home to one of Frank Lloyd Wright’s genius creations. Cantilevered over the Bear Run waterfall, his renowned Fallingwater showcases Wright’s seamlessly connecting architecture with its environs. Next stop is Pittsburgh. Using steel and stone, symbolizing education
- [Caution Reigns for Consumer Discretionary](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/20/caution-reigns-for-consumer-discretionary/) - QUICK QUILL — The Conference Board’s Coincident Index’s levitation relative to its Leading Index’s deterioration has reached a critical threshold that lines up with past cyclical markers. The broader service sector could reflect continued compression in today’s release of the Philadelphia Fed’s region, echoing the New York Fed District. To that end, ‘better’ views on Business
- [The Mel Brooks Six](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/20/the-mel-brooks-six/) - Grauman’s Chinese Theater boasts more than 200 Hollywood celebrity handprints, footprints and autographs in the cement that fronts it. Befittingly, to commemorate the 40th anniversary of 2014’s Young Frankenstein, Grauman’s asked Mel Brooks to add his hands and feet to the famed forecourt on Hollywood Boulevard. In keeping with the spirit of the event, he
- [Tattered U.S. Household Finances & Job Insecurity Manifest in Latest Data](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/19/tattered-u-s-household-finances-job-insecurity-manifest-in-latest-data/) - QUICK QUILL — Despite MacroEdge job cut announcements running north of 100,000 for a fourth straight month, state WARN notices are lagging UMich Higher Unemployment Expectations. Companies have likely become adroit at shielding planned layoffs from the glaring judgment of headlines as investors increasingly learn of headcount reduction after the fact via earnings releases. On the
- [The Sweet Smell of Success](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/19/the-sweet-smell-of-success/) - “But Sidney, you make a living. Where do you want to get?” “Way up high, Sam, where it’s always balmy… From now on, the best of everything is good enough for me.” The above exchange comes from Sweet Smell of Success, which we were lucky to catch last week on Turner Classic Movies. While introducing
- [The Squeeze is On](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/16/the-squeeze-is-on/) - Record squeezes assume many forms. Guinness World Records lists the largest glass of freshly squeezed orange juice at 1,525 liters (a little more than 335 gallons). The feat took place at Hotel Las Arenas in Valencia, Spain in November 2016. Lasting exactly one hour, 400 participants squeezed their hearts – uh, oranges – out. In
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 5.17.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/17/saturday-intelligence-briefing-5-17-25/)
- [Wednesday’s Data Dump Heartened Treasury Bulls](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/16/wednesdays-data-dump-heartened-treasury-bulls/) - QUICK QUILL — The PPI revealed a sharp margin squeeze in cyclical distribution channels which should manifest as further headcount reduction in Wholesale and Retail. Cooling control group Retail Sales add to that theme. And while upstream capex guidance from New York and Philadelphia Fed Districts couldn’t have diverged more, concurrence in their Current Workweeks suggest
- [The Weekly Quill — Not Making the Grade – The Truth About the U.S. Jobs Market](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/14/the-weekly-quill-not-making-the-grade-the-truth-about-the-u-s-jobs-market/)
- [Sniffing out BTD in Treasuries](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/15/sniffing-out-btd-in-treasuries/) - QUICK QUILL — A housing slump and home price disinflation remain in play, while weak expectations for the first regional manufacturing surveys point to a loosening industrial labor environment. Current Fed pricing shows very low chances of imminent relief. Wednesday’s backup in Treasury yields should give bulls better entry points. TAKEAWAYS While the MBA’s Purchase Index
- [Mission: Impossible](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/15/mission-impossible/) - “Our lives are the sum of our choices.” Tagline from Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning (2025) Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to buy a ticket and a bucket of popcorn and immerse yourself in a movie theater recliner for the eighth installment of the Mission: Impossible film series. You have
- [CPI and NFIB Reinforce Evidence of a Margin Squeeze Taking Hold](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/14/cpi-and-nfib-reinforce-evidence-of-a-margin-squeeze-taking-hold/) - QUICK QUILL — Signs of weaker discretionary pricing and cautious signals from small businesses add to a disinflationary theme that will further squeeze margins and the broader corporate earnings outlook. TAKEAWAYS April’s CPI report saw admission prices to sporting events collapse 12.2% MoM, the steepest decline in data back to 1997; given the top 10% of
- [Admissions Only](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/14/admissions-only/) - Horseracing was the first chart for which admission was charged in the United States. Hempstead Plains in present-day Jamaica, Queens, New York was the first racetrack, which opened in 1665. It wasn’t until the early 1800s, however, that the Sport of Kings was first disrupted. In 1829, Long Island’s Union Course was renovated heralding a
- [Fade any Travel Pricing Strength in Today’s CPI](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/13/fade-any-travel-pricing-strength-in-todays-cpi/) - QUICK QUILL — Discretionary travel pricing was a huge negative in the March CPI. Seasonals could generate an upside surprise in today’s April CPI release. This could be a head fake given hotel revenues were challenged in April. Operators are trimming hours to forestall headcount reductions given the uncertain macro backdrop. According to industry sources, May
- [Travel at a Crossroads](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/13/travel-at-a-crossroads/) - Last Saturday, with thundering booms, the Sheraton Crossroads in Mahwah, New Jersey was imploded in a spectacle of demolition precision. The 250-foot-tall, 25-story hotel opened in October 1987 and closed in December 2023. From 1955 to 1980, the parcel was home to a Ford assembly plant. At birth, the site was a 1930s airport subsequently
- [Household Balance Sheets North and South of the Canadian Border Increasingly Impaired](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/12/household-balance-sheets-north-and-south-of-the-canadian-border-increasingly-impaired/) - QUICK QUILL — An adverse feedback loop has been set in motion wherein cost cuts beget further cost cuts. The current administration is likely unaware that the actions it’s taken will exacerbate this dynamic by impairing U.S. household balance sheets against a backdrop of increasingly pressured incomes. Pinched purchasing power will continue to be the greater
- [Brief Encounter > Lawrence of Arabia](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/12/brief-encounter-lawrence-of-arabia/) - “I didn’t think such violent things could happen to ordinary people.” British film director David Lean is best remembered for his Best Picture winning, nearly four-hour historical epic, Lawrence of Arabia. But we’re partial to another of his films: a breezy, 86-minute romantic drama that is aptly titled Brief Encounter. Set in pre-World War
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 5.10.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/10/saturday-intelligence-briefing-5-10-25/)
- [Waiting for Hard Data Threatens to Break the Real U.S. Economy](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/09/waiting-for-hard-data-threatens-to-break-the-real-u-s-economy/) - QUICK QUILL — Continuing claims and Indeed’s job postings both show a persistently weakening job market. A sharp drop in demand for Loading & Stocking positions points to a rapid fall-off in imports, while declines for openings in Beauty & Wellness and Sports demonstrate declining discretionary spending. Powell’s callous disregard for these signs will tear away
- [The Waiting](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/09/the-waiting/) - “Music and silence combine strongly because music is done with silence, and silence is full of music.” Marcel Marceau Songs that come together piece by piece truly fit the description of Thursday’s Bloomberg quote of the day. Tom Petty’s 1981 hit “The Waiting” was one of those songs. The late rocker recalled in 2014: “I
- [The Weekly Quill — Powell Sinks to Trump’s Level](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/08/the-weekly-quill-powell-sinks-to-trumps-level/)
- [The Fed’s Blinder Bull Flattened the Curve](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/08/the-feds-blinder-bull-flattened-the-curve/) - QUICK QUILL — Uncertainty and dovishness are bedfollows. Unlike last September, when the negativity in the Fed’s Beige Book prompted an unusually large rate cut, inaction promises higher unemployment. The Treasury market yesterday reflected as much. While Powell refuses to acknowledge reality, revenue worries are beyond companies’ control. The Fed’s lack of response to the clearly
- [50 Shades of Beige](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/08/50-shades-of-beige/) - Passé likely comes to mind at the mention of “beige.” Though it peaked in the 1990s and 2000s, this classic color remains an interior design mainstay. Its absolute versatility guarantees it blends with virtually any color. At its core, beige blends three primary colors -- yellow, brown, and white. But other shades of beige can
- [WTI Poses Marginal Risk to Consumer Discretionary](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/07/wti-poses-marginal-risk-to-consumer-discretionary/) - QUICK QUILL — The recent drop in oil prices under $60 per barrel flags downside for inflation breakevens, freight volumes, Texas consumer sentiment and Exploration & Production earnings. Because Texas is about 10% of U.S. consumer spending, WTI’s marginal damage inflicted suggests further downside for Consumer Discretionary. TAKEAWAYS WTI Crude Prices have a tight 0.9 correlation
- [Dinosaurs Ain’t Renewables](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/07/dinosaurs-aint-renewables/) - Who hasn’t pumped gas thinking refined Velociraptor is pouring directly into their tank? As strongly as the myth has held, oil is not made from the decomposed bodies of ancient dinosaurs. In Science Norway, Geologist Reidar Müller of the University of Oslo explained “Oil comes from trillions of tiny algae and plankton” which died millions
- [June Rate Cut Odds Pricing is Too Low](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/06/june-rate-cut-odds-pricing-is-too-low/) - QUICK QUILL — ISM Services elicited an unfounded sigh of relief on the macro front. An increasingly defensive business posture and growing excess capacity in both ISM surveys at the second quarter’s outset signal an underpricing of June rate cut odds. TAKEAWAYS Though the ISM Services headline rose to 51.6 in April and beat the 50.2
- [Macro Clamors for Meatloaf Comfort](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/06/macro-clamors-for-meatloaf-comfort/) - Growing up in the 1950s, Baby Boomers were painfully aware of the main entrée -- meatloaf. Coming of age in this era was synonymous with this twice-a-month dinner, synonymous with stretching the food budget. But this classic comfort food was not born in the postwar period. Meatloaf traces its origins to the ancient Romans of
- [Permanent Job Losers Flag Recessionary Scarring](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/05/permanent-job-losers-flag-recessionary-scarring/) - QUICK QUILL — Only the nimblest traders will applaud the Fed’s stay of sentence this week. Policymakers are cowering behind data that they know fail to reflect the reality on the ground. Those monitoring the entirety of the real economy will gauge the cost of nothaving the courage to act. Stay up in quality and long the
- [Waiting for the Paint to Splatter](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/05/waiting-for-the-paint-to-splatter/) - On July 19, 1937, the Entartete Kunst (“Degenerate Art”) exhibition opened in Munich. Featuring paintings and sculptures confiscated by the Nazis from German museums, the show sought to criticize modernist artworks from the Weimar Republic, which curator Adolf Ziegler described as “monstrosities of insanity, insolence, incompetence, and degeneration.” Works by Jewish artists, as well as
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 5.3.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/03/saturday-intelligence-briefing-5-3-25/)
- [Rising Unemployment Risks Will Embolden Treasury Bulls](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/02/rising-unemployment-risks-will-embolden-treasury-bulls/) - QUICK QUILL — The front-running evident in ISM New Orders has provided a cheaper entry point along the Treasury curve validated by other ISM details, which were decidedly bearish for global trade, industrial output and manufacturing payrolls. A baton pass in the layoff picture from DOGE to the private sector suggests higher unemployment risks could be
- [Armageddon vs. Deep Impact](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/02/armageddon-vs-deep-impact/) - In the spring of 1998, Hollywood decided to release not one, but two, end-of-days blockbusters. Deep Impact hit May 8th, sending hurtling a comet toward Earth that would end all human life. The plot was probable -- the U.S. government tries to keep the crisis under wraps, but crack reporter Jenny Lerner (Tea Leoni) uncovers
- [The Weekly Quill — Take Two — Synthesizing the Thesis](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/01/the-weekly-quill-take-two-synthesizing-the-thesis/)
- [Go Long Shorter Duration](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/01/go-long-shorter-duration/) - QUICK QUILL — The negative sign in front of first quarter U.S. GDP was an expected math construct. However, the unfavorable mix between first-quarter supply and demand coupled with a record spike in tech equipment investment flag incoming Street downgrades to second-quarter growth estimates. The incredible shrinking M&A cycle only adds to this narrative as do
- [Accounting for a Slowdown](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/05/01/accounting-for-a-slowdown/) - Mesopotamia was the very cradle of civilization, where writing, counting and money came into being. Ditto for accounting as the early Egyptians and Babylonians invented the audit, while the Romans collated detailed financial information. As for the profession, the first accountants date to 300 BC in Iran, where tokens and bookkeeping scripts were discovered. In
- [An Income Shock Will Manifest as Deflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/30/an-income-shock-will-manifest-as-deflation/) - QUICK QUILL — Conference Board consumer confidence has morphed from a labor shock to an income shock. As precipitously as forward-looking expectations fell, the present situation index also points to the risk of a “real” income shock. While tariff terror was cited in spades, the real story is that expectations for declining income manifest as deflation
- [The Dangerous Sports Club](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/30/the-dangerous-sports-club/) - Based in Oxford and London, England, members of the Dangerous Sports Club were extreme sports pioneers. Active from the late 1970s for about ten years, they take credit for modern bungee jumping. While no April Fool’s, on April 1, 1979, two members of the Club -- David Kirke and Simon Keeling -- made the first
- [Rent Any Risk Asset Rally](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/29/rent-any-risk-asset-rally/) - QUICK QUILL — Given that four in ten Texas manufacturers cannot passthrough higher input costs, the risk is rising that stagflation is but one stop on a path to a nasty margin squeeze, a caveat that must accompany this week’s key U.S. economic indicators. The abruptness of the weakening in April’s Dallas Fed manufacturing survey flags
- [The Four Horsemen of Menaced Margins](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/29/the-four-horsemen-of-menaced-margins/) - Many things come in fours: Earth, Water, Air and Fire Right Atrium, Left Atrium, Right Ventricle and Left Ventricle Black Bile, Yellow Bile, Phlegm and Blood Melancholic, Choleric, Phlegmatic and Sanguine Spades, Clubs, Hearts, and Danielle’s Favorite -- Diamonds John, Paul, George and Ringo George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln There were
- [Reality: High-Income Sentiment is Highly Correlated to PCE](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/28/reality-high-income-sentiment-is-highly-correlated-to-pce/) - QUICK QUILL — Spending by U.S. consumers across the general population may not correlate to the sentiment they convey as survey respondents. The same cannot be said of college-educated respondents when isolated as a cohort within surveys, i.e., the highest earners who account for a disproportionately high percentage of PCE. This applies as well to the
- [College Grads Not Feeling Safe](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/28/college-grads-not-feeling-safe/) - “The first thing you need to do in order to ‘clear’ is create an oasis in which to live. Your oasis is your safe place, your toxic-free zone.” In the 1995 film Safe, Los Angeles housewife Carol White is suddenly beset by a mysterious illness. A nosebleed while getting a perm, a panic attack at
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 4.26.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/26/saturday-intelligence-briefing-4-26-25/)
- [Upping the Ante on the Risk to Cyclicals](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/25/upping-the-ante-on-the-risk-to-cyclicals/) - QUICK QUILL — Cyclical reads on housing and capex have further weakened heading into the second quarter. Closely followed first-quarter U.S. GDP trackers are sporting negative signs. And the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey was a trainwreck – the divergence between expectations of higher input costs and selling prices and lower employment and working hours printed
- [The Adventures of Letterman](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/25/the-adventures-of-letterman/) - Gene Wilder was as versatile an actor as Hollywood had ever seen. He kept it cool as the boozy gunslinger in Blazing Saddles. He charmed us as a candy man in the children’s favorite Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. And no one can forget his role as a California-born descendant of the mad scientist
- [3rd, 5th, 7th](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/24/3rd-5th-7th/) - The study of the significance of numbers’ potential influence on our lives, is based on the idea that each number has unique energy and resonance defines numerology. Angel numbers, in sets of three, are said to convey transcendence and act as a divine pilot. Randomly choosing 357 rocks – it’s a sign of guidance, progress
- [The Weekly Quill — Aspiration Absolution — The U.S. Consumer Exhausts its Reserves](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/23/the-weekly-quill-aspiration-absolution-the-u-s-consumer-exhausts-its-reserves/)
- [Handicapping the Global Recession with PMIs](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/24/handicapping-the-global-recession-with-pmis/) - QUICK QUILL — S&P Global PMIs point to recession risk being grossly underpriced in the Euro Area and the U.K. while that of the U.S. is slightly off and Japan’s is fairly valued. Insufficient easing is built into swaps markets for the ECB and BoE. TAKEAWAYS On a z-score basis, S&P Global Euro Area Current Composite
- [Dancing Gophers and Whack-a-Mole](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/23/dancing-gophers-and-whack-a-mole/) - “Famous Puppeteers for $1,000.” Your Jeopardy answer: “Who is Jim Henson.” Pat Brymer, not so much. Born March 1950 in Highland Park, Illinois, James Patrick Brymer studied theater at Illinois State University for four years before moving to St. Louis to work for Sid and Marty Krofft’s puppet theater at Six Flags Over Mid-America. He
- [Regional Fed Surveys Reach a Tipping Point](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/23/regional-fed-surveys-reach-a-tipping-point/) - QUICK QUILL — Weakening survey data from the Philadelphia, Richmond and Chicago Fed Districts lean toward asymmetry in the Fed’s dual mandate – and downside for maximum employment. TAKEAWAYS In the Philly Fed’s non-Mfg report for April, Current Prices Received slipped to -0.1, flagging a margin squeeze; meanwhile, the average of Current Full and Part-Time Employment
- [Higher Conviction for Short-Duration Yield Rally](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/22/higher-conviction-for-short-duration-yield-rally/) - QUICK QUILL — Global trade and U.S. capex risks continue to mount even as conduits for business loans narrow. A plunge in equipment leasing confidence points to cyclical manufacturing and construction sectors being next in line. Combatting a combative administration, the Fed may not be in a hurry to ease, but the opportunity for short-duration yields
- [Palisades Park: Korea Foodie Heaven](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/22/palisades-park-korea-foodie-heaven/) - You likely think of New York and Los Angeles when you hear ‘Koreatown.’ Curiously, they don’t top the U.S. list. That distinction goes to Bergen County in Northern New Jersey, a short car ride across the George Washington Bridge from NYC. Four small, neighboring towns top the list in terms of percentage of the municipality’s
- [The Weekly Quill — Sinking the Suckers](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/16/the-weekly-quill-sinking-the-suckers/)
- [Leading Chemicals and Housing Sectors Buckling](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/21/leading-chemicals-and-housing-sectors-buckling/) - QUICK QUILL — Sources of positive contributions to U.S. economic output are dwindling to nothing. Last week illustrated a sudden stop in service sector employment and residential real estate even as it’s clear the industrial recession is taking its next leg down. This week brings realtors’ commissions and Durable Goods, which feed GDP. Wednesday also sees
- [A Straight Story](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/21/a-straight-story/) - In July 1994, Alvin Straight left his hometown of Laurens, Iowa, and began the 240-mile journey to Blue River, Wisconsin, to see his brother who had just suffered a stroke. At the time, Alvin was 73 and had no driver’s license, so he took the one mode of transportation he had available: a John Deere
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 4.19.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/19/saturday-intelligence-briefing-4-19-25/)
- [More Outlooks Yet Are Collapsing. Fade Retail Sales’ Gain.](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/17/more-outlooks-yet-are-collapsing-fade-retail-sales-gain/) - QUICK QUILL — Extending yesterday’s theme, weakening outlooks in the highest service-sector intensity state of New York and for U.S. home builders contrasted with the demand pull-forward on display in Retail Sales. With the Fed focused on keeping “long-term inflation expectations well anchored” and making sure that tariffs don’t become an “ongoing inflation problem,” it will
- [Climate Changes and Fading Gains](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/17/climate-changes-and-fading-gains/) - “After climatologist Jack Hall is largely ignored by U.N. officials when presenting his environmental concerns, his research proves true when a superstorm develops, setting off catastrophic natural disasters throughout the world. Trying to get to his son, Sam, who is trapped in New York with his friend Laura and others, Jack and his crew must
- [Risk of a Deepening Recession Soaring](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/16/risk-of-a-deepening-recession-soaring/) - QUICK QUILL — Outlooks from investors, manufacturers and consumers have abruptly collapsed. It’s long past time for the cycle-callers at the National Bureau of Economic Research to fade the demand-pull-forward in hard data, including any in today’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production. Up in quality continues to be a crucial stance. TAKEAWAYS In BofA’s Global Fund
- [The Journey from Word to Business Cycles](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/16/the-journey-from-word-to-business-cycles/) - As proud wordsmiths and students of the business cycle, we’re naturally drawn to “word cycles.” Also known as “rotograms” or “bicycles,” word cycles are simply reversible compound words. The two halves can be placed in either order to create entirely different terms. In 1969, the periodical Word Ways’ David Silverman vaguely introduced the concept in
- [Global Supply Chain Flags Disinflation Despite Tariff Terror](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/15/global-supply-chain-flags-disinflation-despite-tariff-terror/) - QUICK QUILL — March’s Global Supply Chain Volatility Index reflected the most excess capacity since the COVID-19 pandemic. Real C&I loan volume channeled the global narrative, with a December topping in upstream chemical rail traffic flagging a cooling in downstream U.S. industrial activity. The precipitous falloff in Canadian consumer confidence, tracking a rollover in Bloomberg’s commodity
- [Hold Your Horses](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/15/hold-your-horses/) - No surprise, “Hold your horses!” dates to the days of equine transportation. Back then, drivers used reins to control their steeds’ speed. Our personal preference of the term heralds from Homer’s Iliad, when Menelaus tells Antilochus to slow down during a chariot race, saying, “Antilochus – you drive like a maniac! Hold your horses!” If
- [A Margin Squeeze is Evident in PPI](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/14/a-margin-squeeze-is-evident-in-ppi/) - QUICK QUILL — The trade war damage has been done. The PPI for Trade Services -- the difference between what wholesalers and retailers pay to acquire goods and what they’re able to charge customers – printed at -0.9% on a 6MA basis, its first in the red in a year and a steep drop from the
- [The Beast](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/14/the-beast/) - “Something or other lay in wait for him, amid the twists and turns of the months and the years, like a crouching Beast in the Jungle.” Henry James Published in 1903, The Beast in the Jungle is one of British-American author Henry James’s finest works. The novella tells the story of a man named John
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 4.12.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/12/saturday-intelligence-briefing-4-12-25/)
- [The Weekly Quill — Hit & Run Over – Credit in the Bullseye](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/10/the-weekly-quill-hit-run-over-credit-in-the-bullseye/)
- [Discretionary Travel and Auto Pricing on the Rails Before Tariffs](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/11/discretionary-travel-and-auto-pricing-on-the-rails-before-tariffs/) - QUICK QUILL — A breakfast food staples shock has transmuted to a travel shock in the consumer price index. March’s synchronous blow to airfare, car rental and hotel prices, which combined to print at -12.3% in March CPI, was the deflation on record. The equity market is echoing the discretionary downdraft in airline stocks. Delta’s pulling its guidance
- [Bacon, Egg & Cheese](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/11/bacon-egg-cheese/) - The Industrial Revolution heralded all manner of innovation. To gird them ahead of gruelingly long shifts, workers had to pound a quick and hearty breakfast. Circa 1800s British street vendors sold these hungry ranks “bap” sandwiches -- egg, meat, and other savory ingredients on a soft, floury white bread roll. As factories popped up across
- [The Employment Mandate Forces a Refocus](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/10/the-employment-mandate-forces-a-refocus/) - QUICK QUILL — Things got real in financial markets yesterday, and President Trump opened a temporary relief valve. The focus of today’s U.S. calendar should be on jobless claims. The collision of big data, soft data and financial data all point to upside risk. TAKEAWAYS The nominal 10-year intraday high of 4.47% Wednesday was 46 bps
- [Repeaters](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/10/repeaters/) - In roulette, the casino has the upper hand. This reality raises an important question: How could you increase your chances of winning while minimizing the House’s edge? One intriguing method is betting on repeating numbers. Also known as a ‘repeater,’ it’s a number that shows up more than once on the roulette wheel within a
- [NFIB Validates Recession](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/09/nfib-validates-recession/) - QUICK QUILL — Even before Liberation Day began hammering at growth expectations, the NFIB March small business survey flagged lower core inflation and downgrades to GDP and hiring estimates. TAKEAWAYS NFIB Inventory Sentiment, which has historically led core goods CPI, has rolled over in Q1, signaling that firms are not short on supply; however, NFIB Poor
- [Missing Biz Markie](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/09/missing-biz-markie/) - April 8th would have been Biz Markie’s 61st birthday. In his prime, he was renowned for his humorous and comedic hip-hop style landing him the honorific nickname, the “Clown Prince of Hip-Hop.” Mainstream success came in 1989 when his single “Just a Friend” climbed to No. 9 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, becoming a
- [Greenback Crosswinds: Bearish Near Term, Bullish in the Interim](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/08/greenback-crosswinds-bearish-near-term-bullish-in-the-interim/) - QUICK QUILL — A challenged U.S. dollar is reflected in relative rate expectations, with more Federal Reserve cuts priced over the balance of 2025 compared to that of the Bank of Canada. That dynamic could easily flip as the rest of the world catches down to the fast-deteriorating institutional investor economic expectations for the U.S. TAKEAWAYS
- [Records Are Made to Be Broken](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/08/records-are-made-to-be-broken-2/) - “Records are made to be broken” emphasizes the dynamic and ever-evolving nature of human achievement and progress. While records benchmark performances and accomplishments, they aren’t the final word. We expect nothing less in the scientific realm else progress be thwarted. Businesses attain new sales levels or command greater market share as a way of life.
- [Rising Income Tax Revenues Flag Increased Tax Loss Selling](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/07/rising-income-tax-revenues-flag-increased-tax-loss-selling/) - QUICK QUILL — Fact of life: Firms need access to working capital. Bank stocks are broadcasting tightening lending standards that will be exacerbated as firms batten hatches to protect margins. Managers corroborate as the spread between their ranks and worker payrolls has inverted for the second in the last three quarters. Job insecurity is on display
- [No Job Market Resurrection in March](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/07/no-job-market-resurrection-in-march/) - “This way or no way You know I’ll be free Just like that bluebird Now, ain’t that just like me? Oh, I’ll be free Just like that bluebird Oh, I’ll be free Ain’t that just like me?” On his 69th birthday and just two days before his passing from liver cancer, the incomparable David Bowie
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing 2.8.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/08/saturday-intelligence-briefing-2-8-25/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing 2.15.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/15/saturday-intelligence-briefing-2-15-25/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 2.22.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/22/saturday-intelligence-briefing-2-22-25/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 3.1.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/01/saturday-intelligence-briefing-3-1-25/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 3.8.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/08/saturday-intelligence-briefing-3-8-25/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing – 3.15.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/15/saturday-intelligence-briefing-3-15-25/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 3.22.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/22/saturday-intelligence-briefing-3-22-25/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 3.29.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/29/saturday-intelligence-briefing-3-29-25/)
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 4.5.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/05/saturday-intelligence-briefing-4-5-25/)
- [Financial Stability Risks Are Mounting](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/04/financial-stability-risks-are-mounting/) - QUICK QUILL — Job cut announcements point to higher unemployment risks, while dramatically slower hiring plans flag job growth. To that end, ISM Services revealed declining recessionary industry breadth for employment which piled onto evidence of a margin squeeze heralding additional headcount reductions. Greater inherent demand for safe havens ups the ante on risks to financial
- [Higher Ground](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/04/higher-ground/) - Three months before almost being killed on his way to a benefit concert in Durham, North Carolina, Stevie Wonder recorded “Higher Ground.” The car he was riding in was behind a truck carrying a load of logs, which stopped suddenly, sending a log through the windshield and striking Wonder in the head. The accident put
- [The Weekly Quill — If You Have to Ask… “Liberation” Thrashes the U.S. Economy](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/02/the-weekly-quill-if-you-have-to-ask-liberation-thrashes-the-u-s-economy/)
- [The Fed Will Be Prompted to Heed its Labor Mandate](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/02/the-fed-will-be-prompted-to-heed-its-labor-mandate/) - QUICK QUILL — ISM’s New Orders-Inventories spread is at levels associated with the deep recessions of 1973-75, 1980-82 and 2007-09, flagging downside for factory payrolls. Disinflation in retail pricing and wages was also evident in the Lone Star state’s retail sector and broadly in the national Quits Rate. Tariffs may dominate today’s headlines, but risks for
- [Front-Running Cliff Effects for Growth and Labor](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/03/front-running-cliff-effects-for-growth-and-labor/) - QUICK QUILL — Front-running is trending. Consumers rushing to buy autos and companies adding temp workers ahead of tariff terror flatters the current math. But there will be payback. Big data is front-running rising jobless claims and a widening in credit spreads. Meanwhile, record levels of CEO turnover portends persistent increases in unemployment of both varieties
- [People Are Strange…But Sometimes Not](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/03/people-are-strangebut-sometimes-not/) - “A long time ago, I was auditioning for the movie ‘The Doors.’ It was kind of a cattle call. They paired together potential Jims with potential Pamelas. And they were running behind, so we were spilling out of the casting office, sitting on the porch, the lawn, and the driveway. All of a sudden, a
- [Locusts? No, Magicicadas.](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/02/locusts-no-magicicadas/) - “Locusts have no king, yet they advance together in ranks;” Proverbs 30:27-28 They’re coming. When the soil eight inches beneath the ground reaches approximately 64°F, millions of the 17-year cicada Magicicada will emerge in 2025. Their short life cycle typically begins in May and ends in late June. As above-ground temperatures swell to the 70s
- [Looser Texas Labor a Material Risk](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/01/looser-texas-labor-a-material-risk/) - QUICK QUILL — There is asymmetry coalescing around challenged services and what’s left of front-running tariffs flattering factory sector data. Fade the latter, but don’t discount the former. A margin squeeze on the Texas factory sector is a risk while loosening in the broader Lone Star State services economy is well underway. TAKEAWAYS NACM Services Sales
- [No Fooling](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/04/01/no-fooling/) - To throw cold water, April the 1st is so much more than a day of fools. Specific to H₂O, on April 1, 1853, Cincinnati became the first city to employ full-time professional firefighters. On the 1st of April in 1889, Josephine Cochran marketed the first dishwasher to the – no joke – relief of dish
- [Weakness in Upper-Income Spending is Booming Shot Across the Bow](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/31/weakness-in-upper-income-spending-is-booming-shot-across-the-bow/) - QUICK QUILL — Upper-income Consumer Expectations have fallen by a record degree, red flagging spending downside for this critical cohort that accounts for the lion’s share of consumption. Meanwhile, at 72% and 75%, respectively, Higher Unemployment Expectations for the highest earners and the college-educated signal more layoffs in train. Employment in the services sector is increasingly
- [Labor Market Hanging on by a Wire](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/31/labor-market-hanging-on-by-a-wire/) - Whether you’ve seen Keanu Reeves dodge bullets in a black leather trench coat as hacker-turned-hero Neo, you’re likely familiar with The Matrix. But the 1999 film was not the first to ask, “How do we know if any of this is real?” That honor goes to World on a Wire, a 1973 sci-fi flick by
- [An Open Letter to HUD Secretary Scott Turner](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/28/an-open-letter-to-hud-secretary-scott-turner/) - Dearest Secretary Turner, Bravo on your strong stance as you take the reins of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the entity mandated, as you noted this Tuesday, with “fulfilling its mission of providing access to homeownership.” What a noble post indeed, to ensure accessibility to all U.S. workers trying to climb the
- [Supply to Overwhelm Demand in the U.S. Housing Market](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/28/supply-to-overwhelm-demand-in-the-u-s-housing-market/) - QUICK QUILL — More than mortgage rates, incomes dictate the ebbs and flows of the housing cycle. With prospects for personal finances at post-pandemic lows, home prices are poised to decline as supply slowly overwhelms demand into recession and the critical spring selling season. Homebuilders’ profits will be further buffeted by the specter of rising input
- [Cyclical Challenges Are Building](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/27/cyclical-challenges-are-building/) - QUICK QUILL — The first quarter hit to CFO optimism from the administration’s policies and unfriendly financial and deal markets flag downgrades to 2025 capex and hiring plans. Added household balance sheet impairment from higher student loan delinquencies piles on to the cyclical impediments that risk deepening the U.S. recession. Discretionary spending should be increasingly challenged.
- [Involuntary Adjustments](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/27/involuntary-adjustments/) - Chiropractic care originated in the late 19th century in the United States. Despite opposition from the medical community, it gained popularity in the early 20th century. Founded by Daniel David Palmer, a magnetic healer and former janitor, his belief was that spinal misalignments (a.k.a. subluxations) were the cause of many health problems. In 1895, Palmer
- [The Weekly Quill — Not in Our Hemisphere — Contextualizing the Tariff Terror Crusade](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/26/the-weekly-quill-not-in-our-hemisphere-contextualizing-the-tariff-terror-crusade/)
- [The Treasury Market Rally Has Room to Run](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/26/the-treasury-market-rally-has-room-to-run/) - QUICK QUILL — Three bearish fundamental narratives on labor, margins and capex were on display in Tuesday’s U.S. economic docket. Moreover, Conference Board Fewer Jobs now concurs with the University of Michigan’s Higher Employment Expectations – both have reached a critical juncture for the future path of Fed rate policy. The sole missing link to convince
- [The Backup Beep-Beep](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/26/the-backup-beep-beep/) - Ed Peterson and his brother Carl founded the Peterson Rebuild and Exchange in 1947. Based in Boise, Idaho, the auto parts supplier was initially devoted to servicing and replacing engines at construction locations in remote areas of the Northwest. In the early 1960s, while visiting several dam sites, Ed Peterson was alarmed at accidents involving
- [Default Risk Still a Bargain](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/25/default-risk-still-a-bargain/) - QUICK QUILL — S&P Global’s dueling manufacturing and service outlook indices required a channel check from the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions and the Chief Executive CEO Confidence survey. The conclusion: Macro fundamentals should remain below normal, permanent job loss is at risk of rising more rapidly, and high yield default risk is underpriced. TAKEAWAYS S&P Global’s
- [It Isn’t Ironic](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/25/it-isnt-ironic/) - Try telling Alanis Morissette that art is art and should not be taken literally. Her 1996 smash hit “Ironic” spoke of ‘rain on your wedding day’ and ‘a traffic jam when you’re already late,’ which did not define irony. Years later, in a 2008 London Timesinterview, she was asked if she’d worked out the meaning.
- [Big-Ticket and Services Spending Poised to Fall Further](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/24/big-ticket-and-services-spending-poised-to-fall-further/) - QUICK QUILL — The downside to U.S. consumer spending has yet to be put in as auto and services spending are poised to see further slide as evidenced by faltering credit card activity. We also see more upside to high yield spreads as this final holdout finally succumbs to the deepening U.S. recession. TAKEAWAYS Large-firm bankruptcy
- [Heaven or Las Vegas?](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/24/heaven-or-las-vegas/) - Chinese checkers. Koala bear. Funny bone. All are “misnomers,” incorrect labels for what they describe. “Misnomer” also applies to the Cocteau Twins, who were neither French nor genetically identical siblings. Rather, the band was a trio of Brits—Simon Raymonde, Robin Guthrie, and Elizabeth Fraser—who were progenitors of an ethereal style of music we now call
- [Americans’ Google Searches for ‘File Unemployment’ Fast-Approaching Post-Pandemic Highs](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/21/americans-google-searches-for-file-unemployment-fast-approaching-post-pandemic-highs/) - QUICK QUILL — Fade FedSpeak. Policymakers’ credibility is so shot as to border on damaging to their integrity. Fresh evidence of labor market weakness in the Philly Fed and fast-rising Google search volume for “File Unemployment” tell us that initial and continuing jobless claims will keep rising in coming weeks, forcing Fed officials to walk back
- [Bird Fighting: Yucatán Style](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/21/bird-fighting-yucatan-style/) - I’ve heard of, and heard, cat fights my whole life. But a bird fight? Once the sole preserve of nature shows, David Attenborough, and now Tom Hanks, describe – in Masters’ Golf Zen voices – a male bird vying for the attention of a fickle female that’s attracted his main rival. Yesterday, in this peaceful
- [The Fed is FAR Behind the 8 Ball](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/20/the-fed-is-far-behind-the-8-ball/) - QUICK QUILL — Higher Unemployment Expectations have flared to extremes. History has demonstrated that economic outcomes for growth and unemployment suffer. Regardless of the evolving core inflation narrative, the Fed has responded to economic hardship on par with the current episode in previous cycles with aggressive easing actions. With just two rate cuts expected and priced
- [Calling for an Economic Tsunami](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/20/calling-for-an-economic-tsunami/) - “A tsunami is caused by a large and sudden displacement of the ocean. Large earthquakes below or near the ocean floor are the most common cause, but landslides, volcanic activity, certain types of weather, and near-earth objects (e.g., asteroids, comets) can also cause tsunamis. Like the earthquakes that generate most tsunamis, scientists cannot predict when
- [The Weekly Quill — Eye on the Wrong Ball](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/19/the-weekly-quill-eye-on-the-wrong-ball/)
- [Expectations for Tighter Credit Conditions Tethered to Rising Fears of Unemployment](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/19/expectations-for-tighter-credit-conditions-tethered-to-rising-fears-of-unemployment/) - QUICK QUILL — Household balance sheet vulnerability is rising based on a sharp climb in discouragement to apply for credit, higher current refinance and future mortgage rejection rates — future financial fragilities for those saddled with unforgiven student debts that must now be repaid after a five-year hiatus. Given the depth of disappointment in the Second District’s
- [Cha-Ching!](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/19/cha-ching/) - “Cha-ching!” No other sound rings truer to the sound of commerce than does that unmistakable chime from the first generation of cash registers. Because these early mechanical devices were designed without printing receipts, they pealed to alert business owners that a sale was made. No surreptitious moves by quiet employees need apply. The moment the
- [Bank Balance Sheets Keeping Score of Cyclical Risks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/18/bank-balance-sheets-keeping-score-of-cyclical-risks/) - QUICK QUILL — Thanks to an acute supply-demand imbalance, the Empire manufacturing validated a growing body of evidence pointing to a margin squeeze in the making. Other cyclical stories emerged from disappointing discretionary food service sales and weakness in first quarter-to-date Retail Sales of home-related goods and autos. The absence of a sharp bounce back for
- [Insults and Incoming Cows](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/18/insults-and-incoming-cows/) - Frenchman: “Your mother was a hamster, and your father smelt of elderberries!” Low-budget comedy troupes often resort to playing multiple roles to make feature films. In 1975’s Monty Python and the Holy Grail, Graham Chapman, John Cleese, Eric Idle, Terry Gilliam, Terry Jones, and Michael Palin played four, seven, eight, seven, six and ten characters
- [A Unique Rest Stop on Highway 93](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/17/a-unique-rest-stop-on-highway-93/) - If you find yourself road-tripping across western Montana, we recommend you take a detour off Highway 93, just north of Missoula, to the Garden of One Thousand Buddhas. An unexpected scene in “cowboy country,” it features as many handmade statues of the world’s fourth most-practiced religion’s founder as its name suggests. Situated in a wheel
- [Cut to the Chase](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/14/cut-to-the-chase/) - The expression ‘cut to the chase’ was an offspring of the American film industry. Before ‘talkies,’ silent films spectacularly ended in chase sequences preceded by obligatory romantic storylines that tested the patience of movie-goers. What filmgoers wanted was to fast-forward to the exciting scenes! The first reference dates to 1929 in a script direction from
- [The Weekly Quill — The Silencing of the Unprotected –  Discrediting the Tariff Terror Campaign](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/13/the-weekly-quill-the-silencing-of-the-unprotected-discrediting-the-tariff-terror-campaign/)
- [Bad Macro News Is Bad News](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/14/bad-macro-news-is-bad-news/) - QUICK QUILL — Bankruptcy lawyers are in high demand as filings are picking up amidst a dramatic reacceleration in downgrades across the credit universe. WARN notices have also jumped sharply, further feeding the household fear evident in UMich Higher Unemployment Expectations crossing over the Rubicon to 51%, a level not ever recorded outside recession. Rather than
- [Relief at the Hen House](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/13/relief-at-the-hen-houses/) - Morning workouts, afternoon naps and evening cocktails all qualify as relief outlets. So do weekend jaunts. The Hen Houses along New Jersey’s southern shore boast an oddly unique name. Dubbed Wildwood’s inaugural micro resort, it invites guests to enjoy a collection of six tiny beach house rentals – Bakers’ Double, Captain Doug’s, Wildwood Haze, Sea
- [Inflation Relief Now. Next Up: Inflation Expectations.](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/13/inflation-relief-now-next-up-inflation-expectations/) - QUICK QUILL — A return of consumer purchasing power is questionable with nondiscretionary inflation running north of headline CPI and on par with nominal weekly earnings growth. The passive exodus from XLY also ups the odds that revenue downgrades in the Consumer Discretionary sector manifest as downside for discretionary Retail Sales. Relief on inflation expectations, however,
- [Derby Doubts](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/12/derby-doubts/) - The city of Derby sits equidistant between the larger metros of Birmingham to the south and Sheffield to the north. This picturesque English city on the River Derwent’s banks welcomes visitors with an inviting warmth amidst plentiful shops and bars. Derby claims that it’s also home to the world’s first factory. Lombe’s Mill, a silk-throwing
- [The Wind in the Wheels](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/11/the-wind-in-the-wheels/) - “Here today, up and off to somewhere else tomorrow! Travel, change, interest, excitement! The whole world before you, and a horizon that’s always changing!” Kenneth Grahame, The Wind in the Willows Before the innately insalubrious Grand Theft Auto, there was the innocence of Mole and Rat. Published in 1908 by British author Kenneth Grahame, The
- [U.S. Households’ Finances Increasingly Constrained](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/11/u-s-households-finances-increasingly-constrained/) - QUICK QUILL — Stocks bounced hard off their lowest levels of the day. And some noted that upticks vs downticks were indicative of capitulation. And then came Delta Airlines, announcing that earnings will be 30-50 cents a share, down from the expected $1 a share for the current quarter ending March 31st, driven by “softness in
- [A Caravaggesque Week for Markets](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/10/a-caravaggesque-week-for-markets/) - Long before the tennis world had John McEnroe or Hollywood had James Dean, the art world had Caravaggio. The first of many to personify the “bad boy” archetype, the painter was notorious for his skills with a brush that matched his turbulent personality. Caravaggio was a progenitor of the Baroque style, which depicted figures with
- [Income Destruction is Well Underway in the U.S. Workforce](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/10/income-destruction-is-well-underway-in-the-u-s-workforce/) - QUICK QUILL — It’s taken some time and ‘encouragement’ on the media’s part as many revel in schadenfreude, but the credibility of the nonfarm payrolls series has been all but decimated. Nearly every other gauge of the job market – from the underemployment rate, to the workweek, to the ranks of part-timers, multiple job holders and
- [A Delayed Layoff Shock Awes the Street](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/07/a-delayed-layoff-shock-awes-the-street/) - QUICK QUILL — The whispers of downside to today’s jobs data became a roar by the time Trump announced hiring and firing discretion on staff was in the hands of agency heads, not those of the chainsaw-wielding DOGE King. Treat any upside to the data as a better entry point to buy Treasuries as the data
- [Where the Boys Are (NOT) Unholy Spring](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/07/where-the-boys-are-not-unholy-spring/) - (Louise Sorel) “First my party's ruined, then my house is destroyed. Now someone's stolen my car.” (Alana Stewart) “As I've always said, Barbara, you throw one hell of a party.” From salacious to sprightful. At least that’s how Hollywood saw fit to recast Glendon Swarthout’s hit 1960 novel, “Unholy Spring.” What decent mother would allow
- [Lower Treasury Yields are the Path of Least Resistance](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/06/lower-treasury-yields-are-the-path-of-least-resistance/) - QUICK QUILL — ADP flagged surprising weakness in recession-proof industries. Filing this in the one-off bucket would be hasty. S&P Global and ISM both indicated rising input price pressures that couldn’t be passed through to customers, i.e. margin compression in the making. Add to this disinflationary backdrop softness in Canada’s service exports (think travel) and U.S.
- [Homebuilder Woes Mounting](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/27/homebuilder-woes-mounting/) - QUICK QUILL — Choppy demand for new homes has catapulted supply to historic heights, sapping homebuilders’ pricing power and setting up a doozy of a spring selling season. Not only does an overabundance of new apartments continue to exit the construction pipeline, but pent-up supply is set to overwhelm the existing housing market. The flip from
- [A Buffet of Economic Delicacies](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/06/a-buffet-of-economic-delicacies/) - America's best buffet is so far off the Strip, it’s not even in Las Vegas. Ranked No. 1 last year in USA Today’s readers’ choice awards, the country’s best buffet is the Shady Maple Smorgasbord, just over a two hours car ride from Manhattan and much closer to Philadelphia. In the heart of Pennsylvania Dutch
- [The Weekly Quill — In Pursuit of Perspective – The QI Research 2025 U.S. Fiscal Outlook](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/05/the-weekly-quill-in-pursuit-of-perspective-the-qi-research-2025-u-s-fiscal-outlook/)
- [Consumers Put Vendors on the Defensive](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/05/consumers-put-vendors-on-the-defensive/) - QUICK QUILL — According to RCM/TIPP, consumers’ depressing sentiment carried forward into March. Expect back-to-back disappointments in January’s and February’s car sales to extend into the spring. CEO turnover ramping at the start of 2025’s outset signals continued private sector layoffs won’t abate even as we see that government layoffs (indirect and direct) accounted for 44%
- [Now That’s Real Clear](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/05/now-thats-real-clear/) - Absorbing less light than anything on Planet Earth, pure water is our planet’s clearest substance. It’s all about H20’s molecular structure, which frees light to shine through absent distortion. Outside of nature, credit for developing the next most transparent material goes to University of Colorado Boulder Professor of Physics Ivan Smalyukh. SiCellA, an aerogel, is
- [North American Recession is Not Stock Market Friendly](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/04/north-american-recession-is-not-stock-market-friendly/) - QUICK QUILL — Canada and Mexico PMIs show different levels of capitulation with respect to tariff anxiety. Recession probability for both countries, currently in the mid-30s, is officially underpriced starting today. The re-inversion in the U.S. ISM New Orders-Inventories spread is bearish equities flagging repricing has yet to run its course. TAKEAWAYS Canada’s Mfg New Orders-Stocks
- [PMIs Booing Tariffs and Equities](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/04/pmis-booing-tariffs-and-equities/) - Since the dawn of mankind, we’ve booed. Ancient Greece wrote the rough draft. At the Festival of Dionysia in Athens, the crowd voted on tragedies by shouting and whistling at Jthe plays that stunk. (Mind you, participation was a civic duty.) Perhaps we’re hearing our ancestors’ echoes today. For you etymologists, the English word “boo”
- [Economics 101: Stagflation Assumes Pricing Power](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/03/economics-101-stagflation-assumes-pricing-power/) - QUICK QUILL — Like “hundred-year polar vortexes" paralyzing Texas every other year, talk of a stagflation shock is one way the blindsided sell-side and back-footed monetary policymakers can gracefully attempt to distract from their soft-landing narrative being rescinded, one statistically aberrant negative payroll revision at a time. While alluring, one of stagflation’s underlying assumptions is pricing
- [No Do-Overs in Life or in Monetary Policy](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/03/03/no-do-overs-in-life-or-in-monetary-policy/) - If you had the chance to start your life over as someone else, would you take it? That very question is posed by John Frankenheimer’s 1966 cult classic horror film Seconds. In it, an unfulfilled, middle-aged banker named Arthur Hamilton works with a secretive agency called “The Company” to fake his own death and undergo
- [Payroll Revisions Validate Recessionary Consumer Sentiment Readings](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/28/payroll-revisions-validate-recessionary-consumer-sentiment-readings/) - QUICK QUILL — The schadenfreude on display in the financial media is expected and pedestrian. Revisions to payrolls suggest some introspection would do the media good, but we doubt they’ll accept our suggestion. Instead, all of the ills will be blamed on DOGE, even though real time data coupled with increasingly downward momentum evident in revisions
- [REWRITE!!](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/28/rewrite/) - By November 2008, any director would have been screaming for a full rewrite, which insulted given the (near) perfect initial draft. Angelo Mozillo, Jimmy Cayne and Dick Fuld couldn’t have been better cast as the antagonists. One by one, hubris heralded their falls. But no script would have ever been written in a breaking of
- [The Weekly Quill — Wrecking the Maturity Stall – Commercial Real Estate Crams for the Double Dip](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/26/the-weekly-quill-wrecking-the-maturity-stall-commercial-real-estate-crams-for-the-double-dip/)
- [Say “I Do” to A Buyers Market](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/27/say-i-do-to-a-buyers-market/) - In 1965, a Chicago group laid one indelible single on the world. Performing since the late 1950s, The Marvelows’ original lineup included Melvin Mason, brothers Frank and Johnny Paden, Sonny Stephenson, and Jesse Smith. The inclusion of Smith was crucial because his mom suggested they track down an old schoolmate of hers, Johnny Pate who
- [You Can’t Get Fooled Again](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/26/you-cant-get-fooled-again/) - “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me,” has been around since the 15th century. Christened by English courtier Sir Anthony Weldon in 1651, “The Court and Character of King James” gave us: “The Italians have a Proverb, ‘He that deceives me once, it’s his fault. He that deceives me twice,
- [Discretionary Spending in the Bullseye](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/26/discretionary-spending-in-the-bullseye/) - QUICK QUILL — Validating the University of Michigan, Conference Board consumer confidence nosedived this month. According to the aggregate of those queried, recession probability is on the rise. The dire message conveyed by the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Retail Survey compounds the Conference Board’s vacation intentions and point to capitulation in goods and services spending. TAKEAWAYS Conference
- [Outlook Gap Points to a Steeper Yield Curve](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/25/outlook-gap-points-to-a-steeper-yield-curve/) - QUICK QUILL — The Chicago Fed National Activity Index breadth’s false positive notwithstanding, spiking uncertainty across the full spectrum of Dallas Fed manufacturers points to continued headcount reduction on the factory floors of the Eleventh District. Widening the lens, a jump in CEO optimism is tied to plans to cut costs by way of hiring freezes
- [All in a Name](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/25/all-in-a-name/) - At a Figma Config conference, Josh Wardle recalled: “This is true: I was going to call Wordle, Mr. Bugs’ Wordy Nugz. Had I called the game Mr. Bugs, I like to think it would not have been successful.” The Welsh software engineer’s inspiration derived from the mechanics of the color-matching game Mastermind. In its original
- [Public Sector Cuts Threaten to Deepen Private Sector Recession](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/24/public-sector-cuts-threaten-to-deepen-private-sector-recession/) - QUICK QUILL — Will the new administration “own” the consequences of the short-term economic carnage being created by taking a chainsaw to government inefficiency that’s proving to be more challenging to cut than first advertised? The rapidity of the turn in the data suggests we won’t have to wait long to answer that question. The risk
- [No Inner Peace for U.S. Consumers](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/24/no-inner-peace-for-u-s-consumers/) - We are thrilled to have The White Lotus back on our TV screens every Sunday, fantasizing about exotic destinations while reveling in the misfortunes of the uber-rich the show so brilliantly satirizes. But for showrunner Mike White, this is not his first stellar work of television on HBO. Fourteen years ago, White worked with actress
- [No Click Bait. No Emojis.](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/21/no-click-bait-no-emojis/) - We concur that 612 miles from 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue is a schlep. More to the point, why bother? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s predecessor’s predecessor, Steve Mnuchin, toured the Fort Knox vault seven years ago. Walking past Bessent as he approached the 6th floor elevator I’d just exited at Bloomberg’s Lexington Avenue headquarters yesterday, he emitted
- [The Job Market Has Broken Before Tariffs Can Begin to Pressure Prices Upwards](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/21/the-job-market-has-broken-before-tariffs-can-begin-to-pressure-prices-upwards/) - QUICK QUILL — Shrewd timing to stall the DOGE revelation in the data won’t negate its macroeconomic impact. From an 11-month high in the percentage of the population collecting continuing claims to a near doubling in the monthly rate of job cut announcements, the body of evidence in less forgiving real-time data make that clear. As
- [The Weekly Quill — There But for Grace](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/19/the-weekly-quill-there-but-for-grace/)
- [No Reprieve for Housing](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/20/no-reprieve-for-housing/) - QUICK QUILL — An 11th straight monthly decline in the value of AIA’s newly signed architecture design contracts and quadruply dipping homebuilder sentiment signal no bottom in sight for construction job openings. New tenant rents’ continued decline suggests that new residential activity faces continued competition from the rental pool of supply as 2025 unfolds. This sector’s
- [Fits and Starts](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/20/fits-and-starts/) - We find etymology as entertaining as it is edifying. Since the 14th century, “fits and starts” has evolved by fits and starts. In the late 1500s, the phrase was separated -- “by fits” (irregularly or fitfully) and “by starts” (intermittently). The earliest example of the former in the Oxford English Dictionary (OED) stems from an
- [Stagflation Risks Flare in the Empire](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/19/stagflation-risks-flare-in-the-empire/) - QUICK QUILL — Tuesday’s Empire manufacturing survey points to another upside surprise in the ISM index in two weeks’ time. However, details out of the factory sector in the Federal Reserve’s Second District on New Orders and Prices Paid flagged near-term stagflation risks. For investors who’ve slashed cash holdings to historically low levels, the emergence of
- [Forgetfulness’ Pay Day](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/19/forgetfulness-pay-day/) - It happens all the time -- two freshmen are randomly paired as roommates. Providence can follow in similar tastes in you-name-it, especially music. Soon enough, local jazz shows are being co-enjoyed. Perhaps the thought strikes to ask a band for a download of their live recording. A text message is dispatched requesting an emailed download.
- [Retail Weakness is Punctuated by Recessionary Household Deleveraging](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/18/retail-weakness-is-punctuated-by-recessionary-household-deleveraging/) - QUICK QUILL — While Mother Nature was blamed for Retail Sales printing 4.5 times worse than the forecast decline, other factors flag fundamentals such as the record two-month gain in utilities output (higher utility bills), the unprecedented pace of store closings accompanying rising retail bankruptcies, and retail management ranks’ job losses. In the meantime, even as
- [Five Huzzahs Instead of Three](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/18/five-huzzahs-instead-of-three/) - “On April 23, 1789, president-elect George Washington was escorted by a joint congressional committee onto a special barge for the trip to New York City. The 47-foot vessel sported a mast and sail festooned with red curtains and an awning. The 13 oarsmen, all New York pilots, wore identical white smocks and black caps. Directed
- [Household Distress Hitting Prior Peaks Ahead of Public Job Sector Cuts](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/14/household-distress-hitting-prior-peaks-ahead-of-public-job-sector-cuts/) - QUICK QUILL — The chickens are coming home to roost for U.S. households. Purveyors of goods and services wish they could return to the halcyon post-pandemic days that afforded them the luxury of pricing power. As the private sector jobs recession spreads to government workers (one way or another), aggregate income will be that much more impaired, amplifying
- [Macro Dogs Barking up the Wrong Tree](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/14/macro-dogs-barking-up-the-wrong-tree/) - What does it take to win “Best in Show”? Earlier this week at the 149th Westminster Dog Show, it was a 5-year-old Giant Schnauzer named Monty who rose above more than 2,500 entrants. According to the Westminster Kennel Club, dogs are not judged against one another, but rather by how closely they conform to the
- [The Weekly Quill — The Inflationista Illuminati — Propagating Price Pressure Plotting](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/12/the-weekly-quill-the-inflationista-illuminati-propagating-price-pressure-plotting/)
- [Higher for Longer Increasingly Impairing Rate-Sensitive Sector Pricing Power](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/13/higher-for-longer-increasingly-impairing-rate-sensitive-sector-pricing-power/) - QUICK QUILL — Hot inflation moved rates traders to price for just one Fed cut in 2025. However, some of the price moves will impair consumer purchasing power. While we await a narrative shift, passive TIPS investors suggest Higher for Longer will continue to pressure rate-sensitive sectors like homebuilders. TAKEAWAYS Chained CPI hit an 8-month high
- [Hot Hot Hot…Inflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/13/hot-hot-hotinflation/) - David Johansen crafted an elaborate backstory for his Buster Poindexter character: “Raised in an itinerant musical family from Louisiana, his father was murdered in a bridge game…” The name derived from a combination of an affectionate nickname his mom had given him (Buster) and a not-so-affectionate term his classmates teased (Poindexter). Johansen introduced this character
- [Main Street Suffering Multiple Personality Disorder:  Sticky Inflation Concerns Conflict with Depressed Growth and Job Market Outlook](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/12/main-street-suffering-multiple-personality-disorder-sticky-inflation-concerns-conflict-with-depressed-growth-and-job-market-outlook/) - QUICK QUILL — NFIB price and inventory sentiment metrics reinforce both the lack of further progress for disinflation and the Fed’s wait-and-see mode. However, capex and inventory plans point to downside risks for the near-term U.S. growth path also consistent with a rising left-tail opinion about “Poor Sales” that validates U.S. households’ rising anxiety about a
- [Did Pirates Really Say ‘Arrr’?](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/12/did-pirates-really-say-arrr/) - According to Royal Museums Greenwich, the answer to today’s titular question is: “Probably not.” Authorities at the home of the Prime Meridian, a.k.a. Longitude 0, and keepers of the Cutty Sark explained that, “Pirates would have talked like other merchant sailors of the day, a number of whom came from the working class of the
- [Job Insecurity Amidst Signs of Cooling Purchasing Power](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/11/job-insecurity-amidst-signs-of-cooling-purchasing-power/) - QUICK QUILL — Shifting the labor narrative that’s keeping Fed officials in a holding pattern will take time. The New York Fed may be flagging divergent unemployment expectations, but NFIB points to sticky wage pressures. On the third hand, relative performance for job finding expectations unequivocally signals trouble ahead for the two lowest rungs of the
- [Case of the Mondays](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/11/case-of-the-mondays/) - By design, Super Bowl ads aim the highest. This year, that Rocky Mountain High icon Coors Light grabbed viewers’ attention by capturing the collective ‘Day After the Super Bowl’ letdown. Slow-moving sloths slowly depicted what a “Case of the Mondays” felt like to the millions who overindulged. Mission accomplished according to USA Today: “Perhaps steady—or
- [Private Sector Recession at Risk of Deepening Via Contracting Consumption](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/10/private-sector-recession-at-risk-of-deepening-via-contracting-consumption/) - QUICK QUILL — Excluding the recession-proof sectors of Education, Healthcare, and Utilities, nonfarm payrolls have declined in four of the last eight months. This is key given the renewed increase in private sector layoffs and bankruptcies into February to say nothing of knowledge that the ranks of government employees are set to shrink considerably. Moreover, rampant
- [Love is a Delusion, Just Like the “Solid” Economy](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/10/love-is-a-delusion-just-like-the-solid-economy/) - “Paint yourself white Clip on the wings Climb high to the top of a building Does it make you an angel Or some kind of freak? To believe enough in somebody like me Baby, oh I guess we’ll see Who was the freak” Valentine’s Week has us thinking about love songs here at QI.
- [Ditching Dead-Lines](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/07/ditching-dead-lines/) - If only the fishing reference stuck. In the 1800s, the Oxford English Dictionary defined “dead-line” as the fishing line weight required to prevent said line’s moving. Every August in Maine, the number of sinkers to bottom-fish for smallmouth bass in Grand Lake Stream is determined by how much the wind generates waves to thwart my
- [Job Insecurity to Keep Rising as Layoffs and Bankruptcies Rev Back Up](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/07/job-insecurity-to-keep-rising-as-layoffs-and-bankruptcies-rev-back-up/) - QUICK QUILL — Real Business Investment growth has dipped below that of Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs, an inversion that typically accompanies recession. Meanwhile, a collapse in withholding taxes portends poorly for wages, which should manifest with a lag but nonetheless spurred by a re-ramping up of job cut announcements and bankruptcies into February. With tens of
- [Life Imitates Art](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/04/life-imitates-art/) - Cyril: What do you mean by saying that life, “poor, probable, uninteresting human life,” will try to reproduce the marvels of art? I can quite understand your objection to art being treated as a mirror. You think it would reduce genius to the position of a cracked looking glass. But you don’t mean to say
- [The Slide in Treasury Yields Has Legs](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/06/the-slide-in-treasury-yields-has-legs/) - QUICK QUILL — Rates traders reacted to downside growth risks in the ISM service survey by bull flattening the Treasury yield curve. The NACM credit managers’ report compounded downside risks to growth and upside to unemployment. Be mindful of these fundamentals that could extend the slide in Treasury yields. TAKEAWAYS ISM Services New Orders fell to
- [Welcome to Accident Park](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/06/welcome-to-accident-park/) - Patrons should choose their risk level when they ride – all the way to how fast and high they want to fly. At least that was Gene Mulvihill’s philosophy on amusement park experiences. With that vision, he opened Action Park in Vernon, New Jersey in 1978. The destination quickly earned its infamous nickname “Accident Park”
- [The Weekly Quill — A Debtor’s Prison of Their Own Making](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/05/the-weekly-quill-a-debtors-prison-of-their-own-making/)
- [Assessing Cyclical Exposures](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/05/assessing-cyclical-exposures/) - QUICK QUILL — January’s disappointing auto sales were corroborated by the compression in the JOLTS Quits-Layoffs spread. Downside risks are also evident in Construction Job Openings and Quits, suggesting a broader cyclical malaise. The fundamentals are prompting you to be mindful of exposures. TAKEAWAYS After light vehicle sales jumped to a 16.5 million SAAR in November
- [No Time Like the Present](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/05/no-time-like-the-present/) - Reverend John Trusler wasn’t one to procrastinate. The eccentric English priest and literary compiler documented a 1500s adage in 1790 “Proverbs Exemplified” that holds true to this day: “No time like the present, a thousand unforeseen circumstances may interrupt you at a future time.” In today’s world, with tariff tensions generating inflation angst, buying now
- [Manufacturing Remains a Downside Risk to Payrolls While AI Could Prove a Notable Offset](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/04/manufacturing-remains-a-downside-risk-to-payrolls-while-ai-could-prove-a-notable-offset/) - QUICK QUILL — Despite ISM’s uptick, factory worker job creation remains at risk as flagged by persistent recessionary reads in backlogs. Even so, AI recruiting has acted as a buffer in manufacturing payrolls as has been the case in business services, information, finance and retail. Tellingly, recession-proof sectors such as healthcare and hospitality demonstrate the limitations
- [Prolonged Unemployment and Falling Rents Flag Building Disinflationary Pressure](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/03/prolonged-unemployment-and-falling-rents-flag-building-disinflationary-pressure/) - QUICK QUILL — “Safe havens” will be sought as shelter in the storm. Upside in today’s ISM could also prove short-lived depending on the tariff fallout and the extent the upside in regional Federal Reserve surveys reflected stockpiling to hedge. Wage disinflation will also take center stage as cuts to spending manifest in further private sector
- [A 15-Minute Intermission in The Brutalist & a 15-Plus-Week Intermission for Jobless Americans](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/03/a-15-minute-intermission-in-the-brutalist-a-15-plus-week-intermission-for-jobless-americans/) - Among this year’s 10 Best Picture Oscar nominees, by far the longest is The Brutalist. At 3 hours and 35 minutes, it even features a 15-minute intermission, an anachronism to today’s audiences. During a recent venture to the Alamo Drafthouse, some Googling during the film’s mid-way break informed that intermissions were once commonplace. After World
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 2.1.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/02/01/saturday-intelligence-briefing-2-1-25/)
- [Supersizing Supercapacitor Tariffs](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/31/supersizing-supercapacitor-tariffs/) - Why bother with a “regular” capacitor when you can trade up to a “supersized” version. The best news is they don’t have the same detrimental effects of supersized french fries. You don’t even have to geek out to understand what a capacitor is. Trust us, we’re surrounded by them in everything from our iPhones to
- [Tariffs on Canada and Mexico Pose an Existential Threat to the North American Economy](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/31/tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-pose-an-existential-threat-to-the-north-american-economy/) - QUICK QUILL — Given Mexico and Canada are already reporting contracting economies, imposing 25% tariffs on our two closest trading partners tomorrow could easily deepen recession in the United States and throw the rest of the North American economy into a tailspin. TAKEAWAYS Mexico and Canada together supply half of total U.S. auto parts, and single
- [The Weekly Quill — Liquidity Takes Out Bottomry](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/30/the-weekly-quill-liquidity-takes-out-bottomry/)
- [The Fed Holds as Recession Comes into View in Business Employment Dynamics](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/30/the-fed-holds-as-recession-comes-into-view-in-business-employment-dynamics/) - QUICK QUILL — After the Fed stood pat in January, rates traders repriced rate cut probability for the March meeting from 28% on Tuesday to 19% on Wednesday. A thorough forensic examination of the Business Employment Dynamics report to nonfarm payrolls suggests an ideal entry point to capitalize on a wrong-way trade. TAKEAWAYS The average quarterly
- [Old News, Cycle Relevant](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/30/old-news-cycle-relevant/) - Old news. Merriam-Webster defines it as “something or someone not new or exciting anymore.” And then there’s MyHeritage, the online genealogy platform. In March 2024, OldNews.com debuted as part of its suite of services offering access to thousands of historical newspapers from the 1800s and 1900s to sleuth for stories about your ancestors and attain
- [Cyclical Forces on Stark Display in Latest Read on U.S. Consumer Confidence](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/29/cyclical-forces-on-stark-display-in-latest-read-on-u-s-consumer-confidence/) - QUICK QUILL — Structural tailwinds from the AI revolution harkened back to the late 1990s fiber optics overinvestment. Cyclical forces, however, suggest higher unemployment risks have not subsided, compounded by household views on future employment expectations to current business conditions entering a rare inversion. While the Fed will sit on its hands today, the drop in
- [Seen This Movie Before](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/29/seen-this-movie-before/) - Google AI spit out the following for the search term: ‘Seen this movie before meaning.’ “‘I've seen this movie before’ is an expression that means a current situation feels familiar, as if it has happened before. It can also imply that the outcome is already known and may be undesirable.” Seasoned financial market veterans know
- [Key Test for Homebuilding Stocks](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/28/key-test-for-homebuilding-stocks/) - QUICK QUILL — Multiple metrics demonstrate U.S. home sales are treading water. After an ebbing in a mini-price bulge measured by average loan sizes, homebuilding stocks face a key test of last year’s peak. Two-thirds of a ‘head and shoulders’ pattern has already been traced. With the drumbeat of layoffs showing no signs of ebbing, the
- [U.S. Home Sales: Sink or Swim](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/28/u-s-home-sales-sink-or-swim/) - A rising high school senior child being accepted to the college of their dreams lifts unquantifiable weight from parents’ shoulders…until said prospective freshman is asked to take a mandatory swim test. Undeniably, swimming is a respectable sport and a great activity. But a requirement to attend university? In the early 20th century, that was indeed
- [East & West Coast Labor Markets Flag Extreme Labor Market Pessimism](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/27/east-west-coast-labor-markets-flag-extreme-labor-market-pessimism/) - QUICK QUILL — “The rise in delinquency rates has been slowing, however, and banks aren’t flagging any serious signs of distress. Inflation is also starting to ease, and the labor market remains solid.” So read the weekend Wall Street Journal, even as Friday’s University of Michigan final January consumer sentiment revealed Good News Heard on Employment in the
- [Major Champion Madison Keys. Major Job Market Red Flags.](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/27/major-champion-madison-keys-major-job-market-red-flags/) - “It was never if, just when.” American tennis player Sloane Stephens tweeted this on Saturday morning after her good friend and compatriot Madison Keys won the Australian Open, upsetting two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus 6-3 2-6 7-5. The victory marked Keys’ first at a Grand Slam, one of the four most prestigious tournaments
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/25/saturday-intelligence-briefing-2/)
- [More Bank of Canada Rate Cuts Required](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/24/more-bank-of-canada-rate-cuts-required/) - QUICK QUILL — The ‘Big Short’ in Dollar Canada is a crowded trade. Trade policy risks notwithstanding, a weaker currency is consistent with more problematic disinflationary themes picked up in the Bank of Canada’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey which support another rate cut next week. Sales optimism from the Survey is rate-cut driven, but don’t ask
- [Crowds in Canada](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/24/crowds-in-canada/) - Years before COVID-19, there was SARS-CoV-1, the first identified strain of the SARS-related coronavirus. Originating in China, the first known cases occurred in November 2002, and the spread was declared to have stopped in July 2003. Among developed nations, Canada took it on the chin, especially Toronto. To revive tourism, The Rolling Stones organized a
- [The Weekly Quill — The Shot Heard Nowhere](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/23/the-weekly-quill-the-shot-heard-nowhere/)
- [Greater Conviction in Powell’s Designated Gauge of Core Disinflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/23/greater-conviction-in-powells-designated-gauge-of-core-disinflation/) - QUICK QUILL — Inflationistas were dealt yet another blow with the release of the much-anticipated Cleveland Fed’s New Tenant Repeat Index by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The collapse in rents was echoed by the Philly Fed Services survey and the index of leading indicators. On balance, these data sets should give market participants higher conviction
- [Falling Out of the Hammock](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/23/falling-out-of-the-hammock/) - First developed by native inhabitants of Central and South America, the hammock was also a common feature of the West Indies, today’s Caribbean Islands. Early versions were made from woven bark from the Hamack tree, hence the “hamacas” designation by those indigenous to the area. Hammocks spread from the New World to the Old by
- [British Pound Sterling Faces More Downside Risk](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/22/british-pound-sterling-faces-more-downside-risk/) - QUICK QUILL — Weakening U.K. backlogs from business surveys have spilled over to the labor market and the real economy. The capitulation supports near certain expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in February and reinforces our bearish call for the British pound. TAKEAWAYS S&P Global UK Composite Backlogs have fallen to the recessionary 45-line,
- [Big Fig Worthy in Worthing](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/22/big-fig-worthy-in-worthing/) - A ficus carica (FY-kus KAIR-ih-kuh) might be growing in your backyard or somewhere in the neighborhood. The ‘Brown Turkey’ is a multi-stemmed, woody, deciduous shrub with edible fruit in the mulberry family and one of the most popular fig tree varieties grown in the United States. A reliable fruit producer, it tolerates the cold and
- [State-Level JOLTS and WARN Notices Are Unequivocally Disinflationary](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/21/state-level-jolts-and-warn-notices-are-unequivocally-disinflationary/) - QUICK QUILL — State-level Job Openings, Quits, Layoffs and WARN notices flag disinflation. As big of a drag as shelter disinflation will exert, there is no greater force that pulls up and pushes down prices to a greater extent than wages. Per the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, the 3MMA of hourly wage growth for Job
- [No Disguise Here](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/21/no-disguise-here/) - Three hints to name (arguably) the worst film ever made: “An embarrassing mess for all involved, this so-called family comedy is about as unfunny as unfunny gets,” Michael Rechtshaffen, The Hollywood Reporter, August 2002 “The movie is a desperate miscalculation. It gives poor Dana Carvey nothing to do that is really funny, and then expects
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 1.18.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/18/saturday-intelligence-briefing-1-18-25/)
- [The CPI Laid Bare Rising Joblessness](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/16/the-cpi-laid-bare-rising-joblessness/) - QUICK QUILL — Inflation is cooling despite base effects and last year’s highest degree of seasonals flattering December’s CPI. The decimation in job availability is equally visible in job postings hitting a five-year low, Empire’s workweek tumbling to the lowest since May 2020, and layoffs by way of earnings announcements hitting a feverish pitch one whole
- [Luving Love Field](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/16/luving-love-field/) - Air travel in winter months can be challenging. This thought is front and center given I’m journeying to deliver keynotes in Vancouver, Calgary and Oshkosh, Wisconsin in the next three weeks. The fear factor has been raised to acute given my most recent adventures in travel. For starters, the inbound flight landed last Wednesday at
- [Conflicting Messages Emanating from the U.S. Manufacturers and Service Employers vis-à-vis the Bold Recovery Brandished by the Philly Fed](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/17/conflicting-messages-emanating-from-the-u-s-manufacturers-and-service-employers-vis-a-vis-the-bold-recovery-brandished-by-the-philly-fed/) - QUICK QUILL — Is the industrial recession flagging its demise? The Philly Fed said as much. But major consumers of chemicals are contradicting such benign deductions via their on-the-ground observations that are decimating top and bottom-line growth. The punk labor market depicted by the country’s most service-intense New York Fed services sector, home to the Big
- [A Lynchian Data Docket](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/17/a-lynchian-data-docket/) - Yesterday, it crossed the wires that American filmmaker David Lynch passed away at the age of 78. An auteur in every sense, the uniqueness of his work conjured the adjective “Lynchian,” which resides in the Oxford English dictionary to describe works of art that “juxtapose surreal or sinister elements with mundane, everyday environments, and use
- [The Weekly Quill — Revolting Against the  Modern-Day Bourgeoisie](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/15/the-weekly-quill-revolting-against-the-modern-day-bourgeoisie/)
- [Downside Risks to Core Service Inflation Are Mounting](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/15/downside-risks-to-core-service-inflation-are-mounting/) - QUICK QUILL — A deep dive into the PPI unearthed discretionary pressures being exerted on core service inflation from a price and wage standpoint. NFIB respondents’ rising concerns about “Poor Sales” and weakening job creation defied the optimism conveyed by the survey’s conservative constituency and ratified signs of a loosening labor market that will manifest as
- [Fore!](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/15/fore/) - The origin of the golf cry ‘Fore!’ makes for an interesting debate. Were you to search FAQs on the USGA (United States Golf Association) website, you will find this explanation: “The old Scottish warning, essentially meaning ‘look out ahead,’ most probably originated in military circles, where it was used by artillery men as a warning
- [Inflation Risks Are Not One-Sided](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/14/inflation-risks-are-not-one-sided/) - QUICK QUILL — Higher inflation uncertainty exudes higher inflation expectations. But plummeting probabilities for future income gains, withering job prospects, and easing wage pressures imply a more balanced risk assessment for inflation risks that financial markets are not fully appreciating. TAKEAWAYS UMich 5-10 Year Inflation Uncertainty came in at 5.5% in January, levels not seen since
- [Inflation’s Unknowns, Knowns, Uncertainties and Certainties](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/14/inflations-unknowns-knowns-uncertainties-and-certainties/) - “Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -
- [Half of Americans Foresee a Rising Unemployment Rate](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/13/half-of-americans-foresee-a-rising-unemployment-rate/) - QUICK QUILL — Fed officials are driving with base-effect blinders. Credibility will suffer further when Powell & Co. are forced to backstep on their hawkish stance as evidenced by such deep job losses that half of U.S. households now foresee the unemployment rate rising in the coming year. This Rubicon being crossed has never failed to accompany recession.
- [Goya’s Black Paintings and the BLS’s Black Box](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/13/goyas-black-paintings-and-the-blss-black-box/) - In 1819, aged 72, Spanish painter Francisco Goya moved into the Quinta del Sordo (“Deaf Man’s Villa”) on the outskirts of Madrid. Nearly deaf himself from bouts of illness earlier in life, Goya would spend his later years there increasingly closed off from the world and racked by paranoia, hopelessness, and anxiety. These feelings inspired
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 1.11.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/11/saturday-intelligence-briefing-1-11-25/)
- [Unemployment Rate Risks Are to the Upside](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/10/unemployment-rate-risks-are-to-the-upside/) - QUICK QUILL — Low levels of initial claims are depressing high-yield credit spreads in rich territory even as private job growth outside of recession-proof areas has become volatile, flagging a turn. More importantly, household fears of higher unemployment counter consensus expectations for today’s unemployment rate to be unchanged from November’s 4.2%. Be mindful of the upside.
- [Yearning for Yawning](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/10/yearning-for-yawning/) - Don’t fade the yawn. It’s what we do, often in conjunction with stretching (i.e., pandiculation) when we wake or go to bed, when we’re bored or when we need to “pop” our ears after traveling in high altitudes (better than chewing gum!). Yawning (i.e., oscitation) is prevalent across almost all vertebrates – even birds and
- [The Weekly Quill — Decoding the Financial System’s Plumbing at the Intersection of NDFIs & Repo](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/08/the-weekly-quill-decoding-the-financial-systems-plumbing-at-the-intersection-of-ndfis-repo/)
- [Respect the Momentum and Be Mindful of Opposing Fundamentals](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/08/respect-the-momentum-and-be-mindful-of-opposing-fundamentals/) - QUICK QUILL — The last time there was a 5-handle on the ten-year yield, the NASDAQ underwent a textbook correction. While rate ‘momentum-istas’ have likely not had their last say, forward guidance from leading indicators like temps, quits and backlogs should be given their due. TAKEAWAYS ISM Services Inventory Sentiment of “too high” translated to a
- [High-Five Contagion](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/08/high-five-contagion/) - Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh loves dishing out high fives. After a Chargers win in November, his postgame speech was captured for all to enjoy: “The great invention of the high five…last week, uh…let’s just turn and give as many people as you can a high five.” What followed were audible signs of
- [Data Struggling to Arrest the Momentum Trade in Treasuries](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/07/data-struggling-to-arrest-the-momentum-trade-in-treasuries/) - QUICK QUILL — Weighed by extreme short positioning, the back end of the U.S. yield curve is ignoring below-normal service sales via NACM, and a weakening labor sector and disinflationary pressures advertised in S&P Global’s services survey. It’s going to take more than weakening soft data to arrest the current momentum trade higher in rates. TAKEAWAYS
- [Smelling the Flash-Frozen Coffee](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/07/smelling-the-flash-frozen-coffee/) - “Pop-up shop” noun: a temporary retail space that is typically used to introduce a new product line, test a new market or generate awareness for a product or cause. While strolling Short Hills Mall last weekend, QI’s Dr. Gates encountered an unusually named pop-up shop. Cometeer, a hybrid of ‘comet’ and ‘pioneer,’ is a Massachusetts
- [The Manufacturing Sector Flags Continued Job Losses](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/06/the-manufacturing-sector-flags-continued-job-losses/) - QUICK QUILL — It could be a bumpy beginning of the week with a deluge of bond supply set to hit the market in a compressed three-day period to allow for the National Day of Mourning this Thursday. Note that the bond market will have an early close at 2 pm ET on Thursday and that
- [Before the Hallmark Channel, There Was Douglas Sirk](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/06/before-the-hallmark-channel-there-was-douglas-sirk/) - In the 1950s, Douglas Sirk was Hollywood’s master of melodrama. Featuring over-the-top acting, dramatic musical scores, and soapy plots, Sirk’s films tell stories of ordinary individuals constrained by societal pressures and expectations. While box office successes, critics derided his movies as “women’s pictures,” mere mawkish tearjerkers. Only in the decades since has his work been
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 1.4.25](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/04/saturday-intelligence-briefing-1-4-25/)
- [Reality Being Revealed in the U.S. Construction Sector](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/03/reality-being-revealed-in-the-u-s-construction-sector/) - QUICK QUILL — Construction is one of the most vulnerable areas of the U.S. economy. Revisions have begun to reveal contracting employment in the sector while, outside the overbuilt data center space, the remainder of residential and nonresidential will be increasingly depressed. TAKEAWAYS Private Construction Spending rose 2.5% YoY in November, coming in below the 2.6%
- [Keeping the Holiday Spirit Alive in Old San Juan](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/03/keeping-the-holiday-spirit-alive-in-old-san-juan/) - Two market holidays in the middle of the workweek may have you wanting for more…rest and relaxation. With power restored to 99% of the island yesterday, the good news is you can hop down to Puerto Rico to keep the holiday spirit alive. There you’ll join the world’s longest Christmas season, which started November 19th
- [Auto Sales Upside Fading into the New Year](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/02/auto-sales-upside-fading-into-the-new-year/) - QUICK QUILL — Supported by aggressive incentives and hurricane replacements, U.S. auto sales could surprise to the upside when yearend data print tomorrow. Auto buyers at the top of the income distribution brandishing fatigue suggests late-2024 gains will prove short-lived. TAKEAWAYS Chicago’s Mfg PMI headline came in at 36.9, a 5th percentile print driven by falling
- [Clippers, Screamers, Maulers and Scari-os](https://quillintelligence.com/2025/01/02/clippers-screamers-maulers-and-scari-os/) - An ‘Alberta Clipper’ is a fast-moving low-pressure system that moves southeast out of the Canadian Province of Alberta through the U.S. Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes region usually during the winter. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the low-pressure area is usually accompanied by light snow, strong winds and colder temperatures. Milwaukee-based U.S.
- [Deep Diving Truflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2024/12/31/deep-diving-truflation/) - QUICK QUILL — Base effects should put upward pressure on December’s CPI given it lags Truflation’s real-time data, which has been similarly affected by base effects. An examination of Truflation driving components revealed December’s inflation acceleration was centered in essentials. Though clothing inflation will flare out quickly, forecasts for a colder January suggest this won’t be
- [The Truth Behind Comic Genius and Inflation](https://quillintelligence.com/2024/12/31/the-truth-behind-comic-genius-and-inflation/) - Narrator: Moses went to the mountain, and God spoke unto him. God: Moses, this is the Lord thy God commanding you to obey my law. Do you hear me? Moses: Yes. I hear you. I hear you. A deaf man could hear you. God: What? Moses: Nothing. Forget it. O Lord, why have you chosen
- [An Inventory Correction Will Greet the New Year](https://quillintelligence.com/2024/12/30/an-inventory-correction-will-greet-the-new-year/) - QUICK QUILL — The global economy is on weaker footing than it was the last time a trade war was launched from U.S. shores. At the same time, demographics present a bigger challenge than they did five years ago as the wave of retirees grows amidst continued shrinkage in the working-age population. Today’s unwanted supply overhang
- [Extreme Makeover: Trade War Edition](https://quillintelligence.com/2024/12/30/extreme-makeover-trade-war-edition/) - “MOVE THAT BUS!” Back in the day, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition acolytes had a visceral reaction to the prompt. Aired on ABC from 2004 to 2012, families that had fallen on hard times were gifted a completely remodeled home. Each episode launched with megaphone-toting host Ty Pennington announcing the crew’s presence as the lucky family
- [Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 12.28.24](https://quillintelligence.com/2024/12/28/saturday-intelligence-briefing-12-28-24/)
- [The Writing is on 2025’s Walls… It’s Not Written in Invisible Ink](https://quillintelligence.com/2024/12/27/the-writing-is-on-2025s-walls-its-not-written-in-invisible-ink/) - QUICK QUILL — While government data on the labor market remains unreliable (whether initially positive, negative or somewhere in between), what’s clear is that the pace of layoffs is accelerating, with December continuing the recent trend. Also readily apparent is the bifurcated consumer, with retailers acknowledging weakness among households earning less than $100,000 and the largest
- [Babylonian Resolutions](https://quillintelligence.com/2024/12/27/babylonian-resolutions/) - Forget the Ball Drop, which got its start in 1907 at the stroke of midnight. The original celebration was Akitu, a massive 12-day religious festival hosted by the ancient Babylonians 4,000 years ago. As part of the ritual, the Babylonians made promises to the gods as resolutions to pay their debts and return any borrowed
- [Reaching Critical Labor Market Cycle Levels](https://quillintelligence.com/2024/12/26/reaching-critical-labor-market-cycle-levels/) - QUICK QUILL — The travel & tourism cycle showed additional cracks (especially in the crucial state of Nevada), while white-collar labor cost-cutting remains a persistent theme. Adding to this, the broad picture of higher unemployment flows leading to lower payroll employment flows should be enough of a fundamental narrative to have bond bulls test the mettle

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