QI TAKEAWAY — Tech-heavy stock-heavy indices look to benefit from the technical and flows-driven bounce to come. Treat this as a trading opportunity and nothing more than a longer-term prospect to position your portfolio.
- At a $4.0 billion SAAR in December, fiscal transfers are their lowest since September 2020’s $4.1 billion, but well north of February 2020’s $3.2 billion; inflation-adjusted personal income ex-transfer receipts, at 0.9% 6-month annualized pace, its second-lowest pre-COVID level
- Despite December’s record 4.4% YoY build in retail inventories, they still remain 3.2% off of October 2019’s record high of $665 billion; meanwhile, at a -7.7% 6-month annualized rate in December, inflation-adjusted Goods Spending is now at its lowest levels since April 2020
- In the week ended November 27, Google searches for “file unemployment” had an interest level of 9 out of 100; in the two months since, search interest has jumped to 24, a four-month high, which suggests that the sky-high Quits rate levels may soon see a return to Earth