QI TAKEAWAY — Jerome Powell has stout labor market data behind which to hide. Watch him do so today in Jackson Hole. If he cowers, we’ll be the first to raise the mea culpa white flag. Until that time, soldier on…this curve will flatten as the credit cycle carries on unwinding.
- In 2021, there were 17 million full-time self-employed workers vs. 2013’s 17.7 million, but displacing them were 10.2 million part-time and 23.9 million gig workers; with 60% of U.S. executives expecting to replace full-timers with gig workers, employment is more precarious
- Initial jobless claims have risen faster this year than in 2018 or 2019, two other years with similar gig worker levels; meanwhile, those making between $150,000-$250,000 are more concerned about job security than those making $250,000+, a sign this group is overextended
- The number of U.S. employees working two full-time jobs is now at a record high, making near-record low initial jobless claims less relevant than ever; the income cohort most worried about job security in a recent BofA survey is those making less than $50,000, at 28.7%