QUICK QUILL — Friendly home price trends could boost realtors’ moods by way of their paychecks in the short run. However, sales-inventories imbalances in both the existing and new home markets flag a re-exertion of disinflationary forces is in train, one that will compound the Fed’s policy errors.
- PPI for Residential Real Estate Agents rose 3.4% YoY in September, the 147th straight month with a positive print; both Redfin’s median sales price rising 5.5% YoY and MBA’s purchase index rising 8.3% YoY suggest the trend is likely to continue in the near-term
- The sales-inventories spread has widened to -24.5 points for existing single-family homes and -43.6 points for condos/co-ops, the latter harkening back to the 2000s housing bust; demand struggling to catch up with growing supply flags continued median sales price disinflation
- New home prices have fallen YoY in 14 of the last 18 months, and inventories continue to outpace sales in 2024, with the former up 8.1% YoY in September vs. 6.7% for the latter; the spread is even wider for completions, with inventories up 48% YoY vs. sales’ 29.8% print