QUICK QUILL — Disinflationary impulses were unmistakable in July’s PPI report. Falling Transportation costs, Trade Services’ margin squeeze, Real Estate Agents’ cooling commissions, moderation in Staffing costs and elevated Bankruptcy Lawyer billings continue to side with the Doves and intra-week Treasury rally.
TAKEAWAYS
- PPI Transportation/Warehousing fell 1.8% MoM in July and the 5.5-pt swing from April’s +3.7% is the largest on record; despite the transport cost relief, PPI Trade Services, a proxy for wholesaler margins, is down 7.3% on a 3MA basis, second only to August 2012’s -7.6%
- On a 5MA basis, PPI Residential Real Estate Agents has been negative for three months, and July’s -1.5% is on par with the onset of the GFC; the cooldown runs counter to the rise in MBA’s average purchase loan size but aligns with Zelman & Associates’ reconnaissance
- PPI Bankruptcy Lawyers has averaged an 8.9% YoY rate thus far in 2026, more than a point above 2020’s 7.7% when the pandemic shock drove a wave of bankruptcies; in fact, the YTD tally of 5,822 Chapter 11 filings thus far is the highest it has been in the post-COVID era