Falling Continuing Claims and Job Leavers Argue Against Fed Vigilance, While Supply Constraints Side with It

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New York Fed Survey Argues for Extending the Pricing Out of Fed Hikes

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Consumer Yellow Flags Continue to Be Raised by Non-Investors

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Bond Bears Best Not Dismiss Margin Squeeze Risks and Investors Are Likely Too Optimistic on the U.S. Macro Picture

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Credit Managers Have Long Since Validated the Widening in High Yield Spreads

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Fed Vigilance Reinforced by ISM and Defied by Hiring Data

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Equity Volatility at Risk from Higher Rate Vol and Cyclical Recession Flags

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Watch for Below-Consensus Core PCE as Consumer Anxiety Augurs Travel Disinflation

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Dallas Fed Reports Flag Lending Cycle Turn Even as Fed Plans to Tighten Further

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Defense Spending Can’t Offset Fed Misfires

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