
CEO Confidence Collapses
May 20, 2022 Quick Quill
QI TAKEAWAY — We’re growing more comfortable with our call to wade into long maturity Treasuries as evidence mounts of the industrial recession bleeding into earnings and the broader domestic and global economies. Since reaching a…
The Loonie is Jolted
May 19, 2022 Quick Quill
QI TAKEAWAY — Canada will feel a lagged effect from the historic U.S. mortgage rate shock. Maintain or add to near-term short Canadian dollar positions. Thirty-year mortgage rates rose to 5.30% in the week ended May…
Bond Bears Win for One Day
May 18, 2022 Quick Quill
QI TAKEAWAY — We would fade the selloff in U.S. Treasuries after yesterday’s retail sales generated upgrades to the consumer spending picture. There hasn’t been much progress over a longer timeframe and forward guidance hasn’t turned…
Recession Risks Rising
May 17, 2022 Quick Quill
QI TAKEAWAY — Hostile takeovers, credit investors’ up-in-quality preference, increased industrial headwinds, and entrenching households all point to higher recession probability. Be nimble with risk. In BofA’s May Credit Investor Survey, recession came in second place…
Housing Cracking as Layoffs Rise
May 16, 2022 Quick Quill
QI TAKEAWAY — Amazon’s layoff announcement has induced many others to preemptively follow suit in cutting costs to get ahead of the damage the recession will inflict. While we may be a touch early with our…
Freight Recession is the Canary
May 13, 2022 Quick Quill
QI TAKEAWAY — Now that he’s confirmed, Jerome Powell has conceded that a soft landing may not be in the cards. If his solidified power position now frees him up to be vigilant in taming inflation,…
Record Airfare Spike Endangers Services Recovery
May 12, 2022 Quick Quill
QI TAKEAWAY — Travel & leisure spending is a cyclical leading indicator. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine generated a massive spike in East Coast jet fuel prices that likely contributed to the airfare shock that’s unfolded in…
Small Cap Bear Market
May 11, 2022 Quick Quill
QI TAKEAWAY — Main Street is wising up to recession. More pain in the Russell 2000 would flag as much. Small cap stocks should continue cheapening. An entry point for a value trade is not imminent.…
Higher Long-End Yields Precede a Long in Long Duration
May 10, 2022 Quick Quill
QI TAKEAWAY — Technicals in the U.S. Treasury market suggest further increases in long-end yields could play out before the fundamental deflationary theme via foreign exchange and commodity markets makes long duration a better buy. Average…