QI TAKEAWAY — Forward guidance from the Conference Board on service spending via the Dallas Fed on goods spending hammers home bearish downside in consumer discretionary. In Conference Board’s March survey, consumers signaled increased services spending…

QI TAKEAWAY — Enjoy the relief rally while it lasts. Regional data suggest extended periods of weakness for new orders, backlogs, and factory hours -- all of which flag downside risks for top-line revenue, employment, and…

QI TAKEAWAY — The S&P 500 rose by nearly 15% between March 17, 2008, and May 19, 2008. The catalyst: The Fed had opened the discount window to securities dealers, generating a risk asset rally as…

QI TAKEAWAY — The notion that confused banking regulators have resolved the banking crisis is a stretch at best. The anecdotes pouring into my inbox about banks clamping down on long-time clients are astonishing. The VIX…

QI TAKEAWAY — Import compression is deflationary and evident across multiple gauges. Capex headwinds are starting to bite and should be exacerbated by funding concerns. Slumping commodities prices presage greater downside for inflation expectations. That said,…

QI TAKEAWAY — Financial decompression should lead to economic decompression as erratic and rising rate volatility manifests as higher unemployment expectations. The inversion in consumers’ 1-year/5-year economic outlook guides the U.S. Leading Index and bank stock…

QI TAKEAWAY — A bounce in February existing home sales might be the last best macro news for some time. Home buyers still face a cost-of-housing crisis, while sellers are barely balancing on the last pillar…

QI TAKEAWAY — Vol repression in equities, the EM space and Investment Grade U.S. corporate bonds won’t weather the pressure of the MOVE’s persistence in GFC territory. The magnitude of the events unfolding cannot be disregarded…

QI TAKEAWAY — Record uptake at the Fed’s discount window flags how abruptly credit will seize up. Powell will press forward with a quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday if systemic risk does not come unglued. Even…