Home Sales and Remodeling Cycles at Risk
QUICK QUILL — Higher bond yields couldn’t have come at a worse time for Pending Home Sales that appeared to have gained traction over the last few months. Higher mortgage rates and elevated mortgage application…
Margin Squeeze Continues on Service Sector and Home Builders
QUICK QUILL — The margin squeeze narrative was on full display in May’s New York Fed Services survey. Businesses in America’s service hub are controlling what they can by keeping a lid on labor costs,…
Rent The Rally in Industrial Fundamentals
QUICK QUILL — Breaking down all parts of the May Empire Manufacturing Survey revealed a pull-ahead theme on display. Delivery times, especially, are facing a supply-side driven bulge that are not confirmed by the broader…
Consumer Discretionary Caution Deeply Reiterated
QUICK QUILL — The gasoline and food shock ate up 70% of household disposable income in March and will likely digest a sizable portion of April too. Because of the price gains, real retail sales suffered back-to-back…
Middle-income Households Present a Growing Risk to Consumer Spending
QUICK QUILL — As home price appreciated with the spring selling season, refinancing activity has become concentrated among new borrowers, many of whom use and government-backed mortgages. This flags middle-income households trying to free up…
Consumer Price Shock Disproportionately Hits Small Businesses
QUICK QUILL — Tension between above-normal small business prices is clashing with below-normal small business sales and indications of a loosening Main Street labor picture. The consumer price shock, especially for gasoline and food, leaves…
CPI To Test the Margin Squeeze Narrative
QUICK QUILL — According to the Logistics Managers’ Index, transportation prices and capacity are at record divergence, putting core goods prices in the crosshairs of today’s CPI. The upward tilt in the Black Book Used…
Underemployment to Further Pressure Wage Disinflation
QUICK QUILL — At 3.6%, average hourly earnings rose 3.6% in April, south of last year’s average of 4.0% and south of headline CPI, which is forecast to print at 3.7% for last month when…
Thursday’s Data Should Encourage Fed Hawks
QUICK QUILL — As the three Fed hawks added another to their cohort, nonfarm price inflation rose to a three-year high, influenced by higher nonlabor costs. This pre-Iran War development gives hawks more ammunition to…
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