QI TAKEAWAY — The fallout from the first-half collapse in nonfarm productivity should lead to downgrades to profit and investment outlooks, a bearish development for equities. The consensus for Q2 nonfarm productivity is -4.6% QoQ, which…

QI TAKEAWAY — It’s conceivable that Wednesday’s headline CPI reflects both demand destruction in energy and sticky and high shelter inflation, a classic stagflation print. Given nothing systemic has broken in the credit markets, investors are…

QI TAKEAWAY — Jobless claims continue to march slowly upwards. Even so, financial conditions have greatly loosened predicated on hopes that Powell has already pivoted. The easier conditions, the more the Fed has to re-tighten to…

QI TAKEAWAY — Slower growth, a loosening labor market and lower inflation were all evident in the worsening breadth of industries in both ISM reports. A twist flattening of the curve should lead to even greater…

QI TAKEAWAY — Weakness in Canada’s economy is a mirror image of that of its neighbor to the south. Vis-a-vis the more optimistic FX analyst community, the Canadian dollar that is likely to underperform in 2022’s…

QI TAKEAWAY — The construction sector is labor intensive. Disappointing spending data at second-quarter’s end and contracting productivity raise the risk for near-term layoffs in construction. A jobless picture weighted more toward construction could move the…

QI TAKEAWAY — Beginning with this morning’s ISM manufacturing July print, this week promises a full slate of opportunities for downside disappointments that manifest as a hangover to last week’s recession celebration. FedSpeak as investors turn…

QI TAKEAWAY — Cost-cutting will become more pervasive as those in charge of hiring and firing decisions see through the “It’s a technical recession” masses. We look for the layoff announcements to rise further at an…

QI TAKEAWAY — A bear market in Sherwin-Williams stock and recession-like plunges for new and pending home sales in 2022’s first half validate recession calls. Expect a deeper yield curve inversion. Paint is a key indicator…