Inflation Head Fake Presents an Ideal Trading Opportunity
QUICK QUILL — Just in time for revisions to set the record straight on the recessionary labor market front, headline inflation is highjacking the narrative, fading from front and center the reality of the unaffordability of…
Question Commodity Longs
QUICK QUILL — Dollar bulls are also commodity bears. Central bank policy guidance and fundamentals differentials between the U.S. and Euro Area support a continued move away from speculative net longs in the single currency. Notable…
Rent the Relief Rally
QUICK QUILL — Tuesday’s service sector data provided blanket relief on the inflation front. Details on pricing in the Richmond and Philadelphia Fed surveys were disinflationary. Moreover, S&P Global revealed an abrupt decline in service employment…
Watch for Downside In S&P Global PMIs
QUICK QUILL — Two reports from the Chicago Fed suggest today’s S&P Global PMIs aren’t likely to hit the cover off the ball. A fallback in equipment leasing confidence also suggests the “manufacturing renaissance” narrative could…
Commercial Real Estate Impairment Accelerating
QUICK QUILL — Increased transaction volumes in commercial real estate will manifest in rising realized losses in Office but also Multifamily and Lodging. Retail’s improved performance should come to an end as store closures impair the…
Layoffs Jump Off Seasonal Trend
QUICK QUILL — Initial jobless claims’ static run at 212,000 joins nonfarm payrolls in the annals of statistical impossibilities. No matter as Corporate America refuses to get on board with the Election Year script. Announced layoffs…
Job Market Atrophy Is Increasingly Reflected in the U.S. Housing Market
QUICK QUILL — Record-high levels of the transmission of monetary policy to home purchases increase the likelihood of downgrades to residential investment. State breadth metrics on Quits, Job Openings and Hires layers in another threat to…
Services Spending and Auto Production In the Crosshairs
QUICK QUILL — Powell reinforced the repricing of fewer Fed cuts this year. And yet, while inflation continues to top investors’ worries, the nation’s largest service economy, New York, has silenced the alarm. Reinforcing the ebbing…
The Makings of a Rate Tantrum
QUICK QUILL — The upside surprise in U.S. Retail Rales has a “don’t fight the tape” feel. Momentum and technicals suggest the next stop for the global risk-free 10-year yield is somewhere closer to 5%. To…