Bearish Bonds Should Higher Inflation Risks Outweigh Lower Growth Risks
QUICK QUILL — The Logistics Managers’ Index is pointing to higher transportation costs putting downward pressure on distribution channel trade service margins. Higher inventory costs are also evolving alongside lower inventory levels, implying a “stagnationary” theme…
Beware of Higher Spending Outlooks Underpinned by Higher Prices, Not Labor Fundamentals
QUICK QUILL — Small businesses’ August inflation concerns will likely get worse before they improve as energy prices climb further in September. July and August’s widespread higher debt delinquency expectations across all demographics demonstrate household budgets…
Main Street Signaling Adds to the Wider Wage Disinflation Narrative
QUICK QUILL — Small business data sources are broadcasting conflicting signals for job growth and business applications. As evidenced by lack of traction in hiring despite help wanted signs growing relative to a year ago, labor…
Volatility Looks Cheap
QUICK QUILL — Volatility in CEOs’ outlook has effectively disappeared. Little wonder, nonfinancial corporates have basked in significantly strong profits and nothing in the way of labor cost pressure over 2026’s first half. Tech industry layoffs…
Has September Rate Hike Probability Peaked?
QUICK QUILL — Signs of disinflation via the Global Manufacturing PMI, slower growth from NACM, and tepid job creation from ADP suggest September’s rate hike probability could fall farther from the September 1st 68% probability. TAKEAWAYS Combined…
Disinflationary Fundamentals Being Overshadowed by Higher Oil Impulse
QUICK QUILL — Data center construction has become so dominant that it now accounts for 10% of private nonresidential construction; gains in the space are pushing construction job openings and quits higher. Industrial news was not…
Resurgent Energy Prices and Imported Chinese Inflation Bolster Rate Hike Probabilities
QUICK QUILL — Amidst resurging energy prices, in opposition to the string of dovish August Fed reports, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey sided with the hawks. An Eleventh District ISM-weighted gauge points to an upside surprise…
The Fed Roundly Ignored Fresh Data Defying its Hawkish Narrative
QUICK QUILL — On a three-quarter run rate, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages revealed the first outright decline (job losses) in the current cycle, which made Warsh’s comments the same day these data were…
Unemployment’s Asymmetric Risks Dictate Investors Price Out Tightening
QUICK QUILL — Initial claims may be low; they seemingly perpetuate a healthy fundamental backdrop for high-yield credit spreads. But dwindling jobless safety net coverage shows continuing claims below that of long-term unemployment, an unusual occurrence,…
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