More Outlooks Yet Are Collapsing. Fade Retail Sales’ Gain.
QUICK QUILL — Extending yesterday’s theme, weakening outlooks in the highest service-sector intensity state of New York and for U.S. home builders contrasted with the demand pull-forward on display in Retail Sales. With the Fed focused…
Risk of a Deepening Recession Soaring
QUICK QUILL — Outlooks from investors, manufacturers and consumers have abruptly collapsed. It’s long past time for the cycle-callers at the National Bureau of Economic Research to fade the demand-pull-forward in hard data, including any in…
Global Supply Chain Flags Disinflation Despite Tariff Terror
QUICK QUILL — March’s Global Supply Chain Volatility Index reflected the most excess capacity since the COVID-19 pandemic. Real C&I loan volume channeled the global narrative, with a December topping in upstream chemical rail traffic flagging…
A Margin Squeeze is Evident in PPI
QUICK QUILL — The trade war damage has been done. The PPI for Trade Services -- the difference between what wholesalers and retailers pay to acquire goods and what they’re able to charge customers – printed…
Discretionary Travel and Auto Pricing on the Rails Before Tariffs
QUICK QUILL — A breakfast food staples shock has transmuted to a travel shock in the consumer price index. March’s synchronous blow to airfare, car rental and hotel prices, which combined to print at -12.3% in March…
The Employment Mandate Forces a Refocus
QUICK QUILL — Things got real in financial markets yesterday, and President Trump opened a temporary relief valve. The focus of today’s U.S. calendar should be on jobless claims. The collision of big data, soft data…
NFIB Validates Recession
QUICK QUILL — Even before Liberation Day began hammering at growth expectations, the NFIB March small business survey flagged lower core inflation and downgrades to GDP and hiring estimates. TAKEAWAYS NFIB Inventory Sentiment, which has historically…
Greenback Crosswinds: Bearish Near Term, Bullish in the Interim
QUICK QUILL — A challenged U.S. dollar is reflected in relative rate expectations, with more Federal Reserve cuts priced over the balance of 2025 compared to that of the Bank of Canada. That dynamic could easily…
Rising Income Tax Revenues Flag Increased Tax Loss Selling
QUICK QUILL — Fact of life: Firms need access to working capital. Bank stocks are broadcasting tightening lending standards that will be exacerbated as firms batten hatches to protect margins. Managers corroborate as the spread between…