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Structural and Cyclical Forces Manifesting as Higher Vol Risks
July 26, 2024 Quick Quill
QUICK QUILL — Record ranks of exiting CEOs have supercharged the structural change afoot in productivity and cost-cutting care of automation and AI. Cyclical vulnerabilities remain conspicuous in their presence via regional Fed manufacturing surveys. And…
Main Street Closings Contradict the BLS’s Rosy Death Toll Estimates
July 25, 2024 Quick Quill
QUICK QUILL — With half of the BLS’s Birth/Death model in hand (Births), we know that net private sector job growth improved in 2023’s fourth quarter vis-à-vis last year’s third quarter. The BLS is assuming, however,…
Volatility Looks to Ascend to a Higher Plateau
July 24, 2024 Quick Quill
QUICK QUILL — Labor risks are flaring from multiple corridors including the Census’ business applications, regional Federal Reserve service gauges on full-time employment, and high-frequency job postings ahead of today’s Business Employment Dynamics report. Tellingly, the…
Capex and State Unemployment Deterioration Raise Dueling Red Flags
July 23, 2024 Quick Quill
QUICK QUILL — Fade second-quarter capex strength in Thursday’s GDP data given conflicting data at the third quarter’s outset. The Chicago Fed points to disappointment in both of tomorrow’s S&P Global surveys amidst multiple signs…
Luxury Goods Feeling Brunt of Rising Uncertainty
July 22, 2024 Quick Quill
QUICK QUILL — Political uncertainty will add to the growing list of risks clouding market trading headed into the fall. Nervous C-Suite occupants are likely to continue battening down the hatches in cost-cutting mode through the…
Jobless Claims Flip Back into the Black (A Bad Thing)
July 19, 2024 Quick Quill
QUICK QUILL — What it means that the guardians of the data are allowing true data to be released on the state of the job market has yet to be determined. The obvious outcomes of falling…
Recession Trade Gets Pricey
July 18, 2024 Quick Quill
QUICK QUILL — Fund managers have sniffed out the bottom in “no landing” expectations. The recession trade is past its cheapest point as a critical mass of investors recognize Fed policy as being too tight. The…
Retail, Housing and Falling Rents Up Conviction for Fed Pivot
July 17, 2024 Quick Quill
QUICK QUILL — Peak Retail Sales have been clocked in 10 of 14 spending categories. Rate-sensitive autos, home goods, and cyclical discretionary are under the most pressure. Housing surveys suggest sales will continue to be challenged…
Empire Flags a Further Loss of Corporate Pricing Power
July 16, 2024 Quick Quill
QUICK QUILL — The Empire Manufacturing survey points to the lefttail risks for growth, labor, and incomes. Persistent weakness in the first regional manufacturing report out of the gate highlights the factory layoff trend’s relative weakness…