The Dow Jones Industrials’ Impairment
QI TAKEAWAY — We appreciate the value-trade minded in the face of blatant overvaluation in the tech space. Signs that the industrial recession is deepening in the U.S. suggest the trade may have gotten ahead of…
Double Down on the Bull Steepener
QI TAKEAWAY — Yesterday’s bull steepener emanated from a Powell relief trade, not a recognition of how God-awful Wednesday’s data depicted fundamental deterioration in the U.S. economy. We fully anticipate more evidence to the latter to…
Setting the Table for a Yield Curve Steepener
QI TAKEAWAY — Labor and consumer survey data flag a steepening yield curve. There’s relative value dipping into long positions in short duration bonds. More visible evidence of an unemployment shock will signal the time to…
CAD: Downside Risk
QI TAKEAWAY — The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey is a treasure trove of forward-looking guidance. It points to a downside surprise in ISM New Orders, further declines in the Factory Worker Workweek and slowing trade flows…
U.S. Housing Loses its Marginal Buyer
QI TAKEAWAY — Growth takes place at the margins. For years, marginal growth in U.S. residential real estate came from investors putting their yield-thirsty investors’ levered capital to work in cash, which poured fuel on the…
Jobless Claims at the Precipice of Rising Nationwide
QI TAKEAWAY — U.S. households are increasingly expressing anxiety about rising joblessness. The public’s “recognition” moment will expedite and amplify recession validated by growth in nationwide initial jobless claims, which is poised to turn positive this…
Peak Inflation on the East Coast
QI TAKEAWAY — Richmond Fed manufacturing and service surveys are broadcasting a massive loosening in the supply chain. Supply/demand imbalances in the region have shifted from inflationary to deflationary. With deference to Goldman, these findings support…
Relative Value in the Recession Narrative
QI TAKEAWAY — The cost of capital is up, compounding the downside risks for capex. While the negativity has yet to manifest in the hard data, we fully anticipate that eventuality. An industrial recession amplifying the…
Housing Flashes a Warning for Broader Economy
QI TAKEAWAY — The need for vigilance with respect to credit is intensifying. The housing recession is spreading to the broader economy and increasing the need to stay up in credit. And as tantalizing as homebuilders…