Core Disinflation Has a Couple More Years of Runway
QUICK QUILL — Rent run rates are finally below normal, and core trends ex-shelter support the Fed’s ongoing easing. Labor force flows, however, are flashing red for the unemployed who stay unemployed from one period to…
Rising Canadian Unemployment Suggests Taking the Under on Growth and Inflation Prospects North of the Border
QUICK QUILL — Canada’s unemployment mix is weakening, and the trend rise in unemployment flags downward revisions to GDP growth are in train. Mortgage delinquencies are already rising, a move that will be amplified as joblessness…
There is a Stagflation Trade to be Made
QUICK QUILL — Stagflation expectations took hold in December. Should they be sustained into 2025’s real economy, a twist flattening of the yield curve could become the pain trade in the New Year. The good news…
De-facto 4.3% Unemployment Rate Was No Cause Célèbre
QUICK QUILL — All of 7,155 jobs separated the unemployment from ticking up to 4.3%, a figure that’s been more than validated by the revisions to unemployment and income we’ve received in the last week. There’s…
Jobs Revisions Mock Powell and the Markets
QUICK QUILL — “NOISY” should best describe nonfarm payrolls this morning. All you need know is the true (QCEW) year-over-year growth of private payrolls in June 2024 was 0.55%, a third of the 1.50% in the…
Recession Risk Remains a Cheap Tactical Play
QUICK QUILL — Supply/demand imbalances in the broader service sector have reached a point of maximum bullishness. With evidence of rising service bankruptcies, weakening in job growth for small- and medium-sized firms, and an ongoing drawdown…
Upside Economic Surprises Losing Traction
QUICK QUILL — Yesterday’s incremental news for labor demand and consumer sentiment should be judged with skepticism. Alternative sources for the former along with ongoing restrictive Fed policy should continue to compress job openings as the…
Manufacturing and Construction Payrolls Flag Downside Risks
QUICK QUILL — Dwindling job openings and a quickening bankruptcy flag downside for construction and manufacturing payrolls, respectively. Persistent declines in backlogs indicate scant follow-through after the current spate of euphoria. Be mindful of asset classes’…
Global Trade Weakening in Train Long Before Fresh Tariff Impositions
QUICK QUILL — Relativity is on display across major trading partners. The weaker China is, the greater the fallout in Europe, which will be on display today as the financial media broadcasts live images of striking…