Rents Should Generate a Downside CPI Core Surprise
QUICK QUILL — Existing home sales’ downside surprise is testing support and extending the housing slump. Both home-buying and home-selling conditions are not pointing to a breakout to the upside, and high-frequency mortgage applications suggest a…
Premature to Call the All Clear for NFP
QUICK QUILL — Headline nonfarm payrolls have gone through a soft patch, but the private core is in a labor market recession. Amplifying this tension, recession-proof Education and Health Service employment just registered the best raw showing…
Investors Should Buckle Up for Nonfarm Payrolls Wednesday
QUICK QUILL — Investors are primed for downside in January nonfarm payrolls. Weaker-than-expected results via yesterday’s Retail Sales and Employment Cost Index demonstrate that consumer demand is cooling and wage inflation eased ahead of January’s payroll…
Doves Have a Compelling Case Headed into the March FOMC
QUICK QUILL — Alternative labor demand metrics suggest downward pressures on employment from both small and large firms. Rising expectations for tighter credit indirectly flag lenders sniffing out a higher unemployment backdrop. With short- and medium-run…
The Labor Market Recession Has Become Personal
QUICK QUILL — Nowhere is the K-shaped economy more evident than in the yawning gap between UMich survey respondents’ views of their personal finances gauged off their incomes and the scream upwards in average stock holdings…
Defensive Labor Signs
QUICK QUILL — Challenger’s micro guidance favors macro labor slack, especially since the January spread between job cut announcements and hiring plans has one rival from the Great Recession. Moreover, three-fourths of January layoff announcements were…
GDP vs the Labor Market
QUICK QUILL — The restocking theme is not just a manufacturing story. The ISM Services report demonstrated that it’s an economy-wide phenomenon that could boost first-quarter growth estimates. This mini-cycle contrasts sharply with the much weaker…
Alternative Data Validate Loosening Labor Market Conditions
QUICK QUILL — With official U.S. employment reports delayed, an alternative round up suggests a loosening labor picture. Big data preliminarily shows filing unemployment trending up sharply in February, suggesting rates traders and job cut gauges…
ISM Restock Not Renaissance
QUICK QUILL — ISM’s upside was realized and then some, implying momentum for the Transports sector to take hold. Rising truckload rejections and improving rail traffic nod in that direction. However, ISM survey respondents noted that…
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