QI TAKEAWAY — We’re growing more comfortable with our call to wade into long maturity Treasuries as evidence mounts of the industrial recession bleeding into earnings and the broader domestic and global economies. Since reaching a…

QI TAKEAWAY — Canada will feel a lagged effect from the historic U.S. mortgage rate shock. Maintain or add to near-term short Canadian dollar positions. Thirty-year mortgage rates rose to 5.30% in the week ended May…

QI TAKEAWAY — We would fade the selloff in U.S. Treasuries after yesterday’s retail sales generated upgrades to the consumer spending picture. There hasn’t been much progress over a longer timeframe and forward guidance hasn’t turned…

QI TAKEAWAY — Hostile takeovers, credit investors’ up-in-quality preference, increased industrial headwinds, and entrenching households all point to higher recession probability. Be nimble with risk. In BofA’s May Credit Investor Survey, recession came in second place…

QI TAKEAWAY — Amazon’s layoff announcement has induced many others to preemptively follow suit in cutting costs to get ahead of the damage the recession will inflict. While we may be a touch early with our…

QI TAKEAWAY — Now that he’s confirmed, Jerome Powell has conceded that a soft landing may not be in the cards. If his solidified power position now frees him up to be vigilant in taming inflation,…

QI TAKEAWAY — Travel & leisure spending is a cyclical leading indicator. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine generated a massive spike in East Coast jet fuel prices that likely contributed to the airfare shock that’s unfolded in…

QI TAKEAWAY — Main Street is wising up to recession. More pain in the Russell 2000 would flag as much. Small cap stocks should continue cheapening. An entry point for a value trade is not imminent.…

QI TAKEAWAY — Technicals in the U.S. Treasury market suggest further increases in long-end yields could play out before the fundamental deflationary theme via foreign exchange and commodity markets makes long duration a better buy. Average…