QUICK QUILL — Start-up data are holding up job openings and the smallest businesses’ payrolls, so much so, that it begs the question if start-ups are also holding up the GDP. Business applications have been centered almost solely in retail over the last 12 months, suggesting the impulse to expand is not widespread. Financial firms’ health are running counter to that which is being advertised for the smallest firms, suggesting the start-up signal is weak and will be overtaken by the very real economic contraction in money.
TAKEAWAYS
- October job openings at firms with 1-9 employees were near September’s all-time high while firms with 10-49 employees had openings down 37% vs. their May 2022 peak; similarly, data from Intuit flags a strong run-up in employment this year at start-ups with 1-9 employees
- While high-propensity business applications have risen this year, they historically have not moved tightly with real GDP or GDI; moreover, 97% of applications in the last year were in Retail, and other sectors such as Mfg, Wholesale, and Finance saw YoY declines in October
- Shortly after ODL topped out in April 2022, Lightcast job openings in Financial Activities hit their peak; they have since slid to a record low -56.6% vs. pre-COVID levels, suggesting that any hopes from start-up job creation will succumb to the reality of shrinking liquidity