Nationwide Job Insecurity Flags Continued Wage Disinflation

QUICK QUILL — Job security has gone from lock-tight to evasive as the Quits Rate is now only rising in 2 states, a mirror image of that of April 2021, not coincidentally the same month the third and final helicopter-money stimulus check hit U.S. household checking accounts, when Quits were rising in 51 states including Washington D.C. As Nike exemplifies, cost-cutting will continue and accelerate into 2024. And that’s for firms that live to tell. Catch your breath over the quietness of the holidays to prepare for the biggest wave of bankruptcies since the GFC. “Up in quality” will assume a whole new meaning in the coming year.

TAKEAWAYS

  1. Truflation, which has a 0.97 correlation with CPI, continues to ease from September’s 3.3% peak and is now at 2.8%; with CEO departures at a record 1,710 in 2023, per Challenger, Gray, & Christmas, wage inflation should continue to dissipate heading into next year
  2. In October, just two states had a rising YoY Quits rate while 45 saw falling Quits, flagging a broad increase in job insecurity; the current situation is a far cry from April 2021, the same month the final stimulus check was sent out when all 50 states and D.C had rising Quits
  3. Per a recent CivicScience survey, student loan and medical debt holders are 17 and 10 pps more likely to use “Buy Now Pay Later” than the average American, respectively; these cohorts are also more likely to cover their holiday bills using BNPL compared to 2022
Posted in Quick Quill.