QUICK QUILL — Washing the seasonal adjustment from the weekly jobless claims data, the U.S. labor market is in the soup. Get in front of the inevitable bond market adjustment or get run over by the last of the inflationistas.
TAKEAWAYS
- At $380.59 in December, real average weekly earnings are barely above their pre-COVID levels of $378.73 in February 2020 and just 4% higher than eight years ago; recent real GDP growth has been kept afloat by record credit card balances and Buy-Now-Pay-Later usage
- Not seasonally adjusted continuing jobless claims hit 2.1 million in the last week of 2023, up 200,000 from the week prior; similarly, not seasonally adjusted initial claims popped to 317,000 in the first week of the new year vs. the 269,000 seen at the end of 2023
- The BLS’ seasonal adjustment reduced initial claims by a third to just 202,000, below the 210,000 consensus; this is less than half of the 449,000 average seen in the first week of the year from 2012-2020, calling into question the optimism broadcast by the adjusted numbers