QUICK QUILL — We look for the rates rally triggered by recognition that the job market has turned to continue. Fed speakers will help the process along by reiterating Chair Powell’s shifting focus to the jobs…

QUICK QUILL — While Fed Chair Powell did not have an advance copy of the jobs data, it’s clear he thinks the labor market has turned. While it may be months before we see the first…

QUICK QUILL — The head fake QI foresaw in ISM New Orders was realized. Deteriorating credit conditions flagged by credit managers and short-run oversupply conditions at U.S. factories suggest April’s contraction in ISM New Orders should…

QUICK QUILL — Higher rates and risk off from the upside surprise in the ECI should not be viewed in a vacuum given the outsized gains in government and union jobs masking increasingly weak trends in…

QUICK QUILL — Contrasts between Texas’ and California’s factory sector could resolve by mid-year with the latter correcting toward the former. The Lone Star State’s factory sectors is projecting compression in jobs and hours that could…

QUICK QUILL — The growth rate of permanent job losers amidst stubbornly high levels of essentials inflation promises to press higher household distress levels, further depressing discretionary spending. Lenders into the consumer sector and consumer discretionary…

QUICK QUILL — Just in time for revisions to set the record straight on the recessionary labor market front, headline inflation is highjacking the narrative, fading from front and center the reality of the unaffordability of…

QUICK QUILL — Dollar bulls are also commodity bears. Central bank policy guidance and fundamentals differentials between the U.S. and Euro Area support a continued move away from speculative net longs in the single currency. Notable…

QUICK QUILL — Tuesday’s service sector data provided blanket relief on the inflation front. Details on pricing in the Richmond and Philadelphia Fed surveys were disinflationary. Moreover, S&P Global revealed an abrupt decline in service employment…