Upstream Inflation Points to Downstream Margin Pressures as Housing Weakness Deepens
QUICK QUILL — Echoing the Empire, the Philly Fed’s 45-year high in upstream selling price expectations is a downstream issue likely to continue pressuring the distribution channel signaling capacity constraints. Alternatively, housing’s deepening impairment flags downside…
Raw Retail Data Defy Warsh as Homebuilders Flag Accelerating Shelter Disinflation
QUICK QUILL — As the Fed leaned on resilient domestic spending to back a rate hike, raw retail data rebuked the sanguine take given reported nominal seasonally adjusted strength may have more to do with seasonal…
Empire Capacity Pressures Suggests Yesteryear’s Fed Will Not Be One and Done
QUICK QUILL — The Empire Manufacturing report reinforced the Stagnation narrative of coincident higher inflation and forward-looking slower growth. Simultaneous above-normal capacity pressure readings from multiple Empire components suggest factory operating rates could continue to rise…
Fed Hike Poised to Deepen Economic Stagnation
QUICK QUILL — Higher prices are driving growth in retail spending, credit card borrowing and freight activity, to name a few. Macroeconomically, volume weakness is taking a back seat to inflation risk. Misunderstood inflation drivers are…
A Fed Rate Hike Will Break with its Own History
QUICK QUILL — Even as the credit cycle continues to meltdown in real time and households’ perceptions of their finances remain near cycle lows amidst impaired inflation-adjusted incomes. Against this backdrop, even as CPI flattens out…
Bearish Bonds Should Higher Inflation Risks Outweigh Lower Growth Risks
QUICK QUILL — The Logistics Managers’ Index is pointing to higher transportation costs putting downward pressure on distribution channel trade service margins. Higher inventory costs are also evolving alongside lower inventory levels, implying a “stagnationary” theme…
Beware of Higher Spending Outlooks Underpinned by Higher Prices, Not Labor Fundamentals
QUICK QUILL — Small businesses’ August inflation concerns will likely get worse before they improve as energy prices climb further in September. July and August’s widespread higher debt delinquency expectations across all demographics demonstrate household budgets…
Main Street Signaling Adds to the Wider Wage Disinflation Narrative
QUICK QUILL — Small business data sources are broadcasting conflicting signals for job growth and business applications. As evidenced by lack of traction in hiring despite help wanted signs growing relative to a year ago, labor…
Volatility Looks Cheap
QUICK QUILL — Volatility in CEOs’ outlook has effectively disappeared. Little wonder, nonfinancial corporates have basked in significantly strong profits and nothing in the way of labor cost pressure over 2026’s first half. Tech industry layoffs…
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