Good Home Building Headlines Not to Last
QUICK QUILL — A disconnect has opened between continuing claims and big data for filing unemployment. Part of the missing unemployed likely are choosing to drive for the likes of Uber – and possibly file a…
Core Disinflationary Pressures Far from Exhausted
QUICK QUILL — The easing in core CPI inflation is ongoing. On the goods side, used vehicles are dragging core goods inflation lower despite tariffs’ influence on other merchandise. On the service side, a full normalization…
Home Price Pressures Not Abating
QUICK QUILL — The labor foundation for home sales has gotten shakier. The third quarter 2025 QCEW points to a sharp downward revision to nonfarm payrolls, while NFIB’s Poor Sales unemployment tracker rose back to a…
Reiterating Caution on Consumer Discretionary
QUICK QUILL — February’s consumer inflation expectations convergence reflected a survey-date-driven calm before March’s oil price shock. Even so, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations was already indicating opposing headline and core inflation…
Multiplying Great Recession Labor Market Parallels Magnify the Fed’s Policy Error
QUICK QUILL — Five of the last nine months have seen nonfarm payrolls print in the red with January’s the deepest outside the pandemic since September 2010 even if one incorporates striking Kaiser Permanente physicians. At…
Cyclical Factors Are Driving Layoffs with Leisure and Hospitality Particularly Vulnerable
QUICK QUILL — QI’s AI experiment – not official forecasts – with nonfarm payrolls leans toward upside risk and counters consensus and whisper number expectations. Separately, while AI is becoming a more important layoff factor, cyclical…
Transportation & Oil Price Shocks Offset by Disinflationary Job Insecurity & Wage Disinflation
QUICK QUILL — The ISM Services restock surge and LMI’s pre-Iran transportation price shock, with more in store, contrasts with a fade out in job security, according to ADP. While we reiterate our tactical long in…
Payrolls Face Downside Risk Given Services Credit Distress
QUICK QUILL — A monthly check-in with credit managers indicates sales in the broader service sector look decent. However, credit concerns are ongoing in this labor-intensive side of the U.S. economy relative to the industrial complex’s…
Tightening Supply Chain Combats Loosening Labor Cycle
QUICK QUILL — February’s ISM further supported to our restock narrative, especially the surging Import index and punctuated by the rally in global shipping stocks. GDP math, however, dictates that stronger imports will manifest as a…
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