QUICK QUILL — The travel & tourism cycle showed additional cracks (especially in the crucial state of Nevada), while white-collar labor cost-cutting remains a persistent theme. Adding to this, the broad picture of higher unemployment flows…

QUICK QUILL — Macro ‘good news’ from yesterday’s durables report on core capex orders occurred against a below-normal Capex backdrop. Evidence of a loosening labor market is also piling up as income expectations fell sharply in…

QUICK QUILL — Powell was wrong on too many levels to count in denying the inflation and unemployment data staring him in the face. The appearance of being obtuse to data to smite Trump before he…

QUICK QUILL — The bullish run for home builder stocks appears to be at risk. The Fed raising the dot plot and an upward-sloping forward curve for 10-year yields suggests the path for mortgage rates might…

QUICK QUILL — A majority of investors continue to hope for a soft landing while the last of the bearish ranks are nearing extinction. The asymmetry in the tails makes recession trades equivalent to lottery tickets,…

QUICK QUILL — Backlog weakness in the U.K. and Euro Area lean toward bearish risks for the British pound and the euro, while the same cannot be said for the Japanese yen. The market for service…

QUICK QUILL — If the best defense is a good offense, 2025 promises to see a ramp-up in Middle Kingdom maneuvering to weaken the yuan. China knows it’s on borrowed time and will pump exports until…

QUICK QUILL — “Steepening” is the word as official data begin to catch up with the reality on the ground. TAKEAWAYS Seasonally adjusted continuing claims are now at a three-year high, rising alongside median duration of…

QUICK QUILL — Rent run rates are finally below normal, and core trends ex-shelter support the Fed’s ongoing easing. Labor force flows, however, are flashing red for the unemployed who stay unemployed from one period to…