Yesteryear’s Mania is Today’s Meme
QUICK QUILL — Nondepository financial institution loan (NDFI) growth has dominated commercial bank loan books this year. However, lending volume outside this line item has contracted and, notably, in the cyclically important Commercial and Industrial space. This…
Big Data Speaks for Jobless Claims
QUICK QUILL — Cooling house price inflation and diminished home and auto price expectations flag Fed policy that remains decidedly restrictive. Notably, big data from Google Trends point to a more rapid deterioration in the unemployment…
Middle-income Households in the Middle of the Crosshairs
QUICK QUILL — At first glance, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations perpetuated Fed Chair Powell’s dual mandate characterization of near-term upside inflation risks paired with downside employment risks. A deeper dive showed jobless…
Credit Managers Flag Depressed Growth & Signal Downside for Labor and Inflation
QUICK QUILL — September’s NACM Credit Managers’ Index revealed a shock to revenues. In manufacturing, credit managers were blunt about the changing business conditions, while on the service side, survey respondents indicated that the number of…
Services Activity and Employment Retrench Domestically and Abroad
QUICK QUILL — Renewed weakening in ISM Services Business Activity and Employment indexes illustrates firms rushing to preserve margins to combat stubbornly high input costs. A retrenchment in the U.S.’s biggest trading partners lays bare the…
Labor Cracks Widening
QUICK QUILL — The ISM and ADP reports together indicate significant global trade compression and emerging private sector job losses inclusive and exclusive of recession-proof industries. Paychex’s jobs index and the collapse in construction job openings…
No Employment Report, No Problem
QUICK QUILL — New kid on the block, Revelio reinforces the downshift in private job growth below breakeven employment. Significantly weaker Challenger hiring announcements and MacroEdge’s job cuts, supported by a pick-up in WARN notices, add…
Favor the Bears for Short-Run U.S. Dollar Risks
QUICK QUILL — The Chicago PMI is flagging a larger-than-expected drop in today’s ISM relative to consensus. And weakness in Dallas Fed Services has amplified downside risk for growth, labor and inflation. Consumer Confidence revealed that…
Housing Guidance and Demand Concerns Reinforce Bull Flattener
QUICK QUILL — Take yesterday’s Pending Home Sales’ upside with a grain of salt. Lower rates aren’t the only guide; household home buying/selling pessimism is persisting. This underpins the AEI’s home price disinflation outlook over the…
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