On November 24, 1986, QVC (Quality Value Convenience) entered the American living room, broadcasting to 58 cable systems across 20 states. Founded by Joseph Segel, the creator of the Franklin Mint, the network launched from a modest studio in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Its mission was clear: Challenge the dominance of the Home Shopping Network (HSN). The very first item ever sold was an Allen Armitron shower radio, priced at $11.49. QVC’s business model was a masterclass in the psychology of “want” versus “need.” It wasn’t just a store; it was an entertainment platform crafted to trigger impulse buys. Know anyone who “collected” vacuum cleaners from QVC? Jonathan’s mother-in-law still has an unopened Roomba bought years ago. (He’d love to convince her to part with it.) On April 16, 2026, QVC Group filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the Southern District of Texas, burdened as it is with $6.6 billion in debt; it aims to slash that mountain to $1.3 billion via a prepackaged restructuring support agreement.
QVC was the latest large bankruptcy filing tallied by Bloomberg on its BCY page. Adjusting the April figures to a monthly rate and combining them with the prior five months (since November), the six-month total sum rose to 99, an eight-month high (red line). Over the last 20 years, economic expansions saw run rates between the 30 and 60 range. In this context, it’s fitting to recall some of the last words from the April 18 Intelligence Briefing: “It’s a stupidly obvious statement to say that household budgets are a function of the number of employers. Sticking with the Captain Obvious script, fewer companies mean fewer jobs and fewer jobs mean impaired income.” As you can see from the latest BCY count, “the bankruptcy cycle refuses to have its march arrested.”
Bankruptcy and layoff cycles are attached at the hip — WARN notices naturally follow the path of insolvencies. When we threw the WARN spaghetti against the wall of the large bankruptcy count, it stuck. By marrying the two series, it’s clear that the elevated pace of pink slips over the last six months of 186,877 (light blue line) concurs with our statement on bankruptcy filings: “Over the last 20 years, this run rate has never been consistent with economic expansion.”
Today’s second quad chart comes with a hat tip to Simplify Asset Management’s Mike Green. It demonstrates the dynamic between two important cohorts occupying the ranks of the unemployed – New Entrants (first timers, like college graduates) and Permanent Job Losers (who reflect bankruptcy cycle scarring). Smoothing both to three-month moving averages and generating the ratio of the former to the latter produces a stout leading indicator of the business cycle.
Peaks in January 2001, August 2006 and October 2019 acted as precursors to the 2001 and 2007-09 recessions, while the third date flagged QI’s “Recession that wasn’t.” Off the most recent peak of September 2025, the New Entrants/Job Losers ratio has fallen to .391, breaking through short-term support at .407, the 12-month rolling average (dashed purple line) and sits right on top of long-term support at .386, the 36-month rolling average (dashed orange line).
Monday’s New York Federal Reserve release of the SCE Labor Market Survey couldn’t have added timelier color to inform these themes. For the lucky consumers who are “gainfully” employed, fewer are reporting happiness when it comes to the money they earn and the possibilities for advancement. Per the New York Fed:
“Satisfaction with wage compensation, nonwage benefits, and promotion opportunities declined by 3.3, 0.6, and 3.1 percentage points (ppts), respectively. Satisfaction with wage compensation and promotion opportunities are both the lowest since the start of these series in March 2014.”
Quantifying these numbers, satisfaction with current wages fell to 52.3% (teal line) and satisfaction with promotion opportunities inside their firms declined to 41.2% (lilac line). Stated differently, dissatisfaction with paychecks and better jobs rose to respective records of 47.7% and 58.8%. With the Iran War/Oil/Logistics price shock yet to fully run its course, this backdrop for consumers’ budgets does not suggest a splurge is forthcoming. In turn, “needs” over “wants” likely will be prioritized.
As consumers have a collective lack of financial satisfaction, finding a better-paying position is not on their Bingo card. The New York Fed noted these two takeaways:
“The expected likelihood of moving to a new employer declined by 1.4 ppts to 9.7 percent, the lowest value since March 2021 [dark blue line].”
“The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks declined to 22.5 percent from 23.8 percent in November 2025.”
Just like kinetic energy in the physical world, more job leavers and quitters voluntarily jumping to a new gig exude confidence in the job market. The NY Fed’s Labor Market Survey is flashing the opposite of this fruitful narrative. Granted, at 3.4%, expected job transitions into unemployment may not be at Defcon 1 levels (yellow line). This said, the relative levitation implies heightened concerns as to workers’ next moves. It’s no wonder that the University of Michigan’s Holy Grail of Higher Unemployment Expectations remains at recessionary levels.