Consumer Confidence Supports a Bull Steepener

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Silent-Ks in Improv, Not the U.S. Economy

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Ks in Investment and Consumer Spending Cloud the Outlook

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No Football Gods’ Magic Needed to Question Dissenters

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Hawkish December FOMC Dissenters Ignore Dovish Data, Setting Up 2026 Rate Cuts

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Chiseling Marble

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The BLS’ Latest Annual Payrolls Revision and UMich’s Final December Take on Consumer Sentiment Confirm a Labor Market Recession

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Saturday Intelligence Briefing — 12.20.25

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Evolution of the Little Black Book

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Warts and All, the CPI Green Lights the Fed

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