Category Archives: Quick Quill

The Policy Debate Has Closed

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Preparing for Payrolls’ Downside

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JOLTS Suggest Payroll Revisions Could Shock Again

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Manufacturing and Construction Payrolls in Peril

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Labor + Stagflation Risks > Inflation Risks

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Growth and Labor Slack Support Fed Easing

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House and Rent Price Declines Support Higher Rate Volatility

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Unemployment Risks Defy a Mild Consensus

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Labor Downside Outmuscling Upside Risks to Inflation

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State-Level Aggregated Payrolls Flag a Negative Payrolls Print in June’s Second Revision

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