VIPs Rebounding from April’s low point of -68%, Durable Goods New Orders have risen by 28% in the last five months; auto manufacturing has breathed life into the broad factory sector, with Motor Vehicles and Parts New Orders up 14% in August after being down 37% in...

VIPs Not seasonally adjusted initial claims totaled 824,542 this week, 4.7 times higher than the comparable week in 2019; with all-in claims at 26,044,952, 17.5 times above last year’s levels, continued labor market weakness prevents the economy from reaching escape...

VIPs Modeling initial jobless claims using lagged Google search interest for “file unemployment” gives a prediction of 782,000 for this week, well below the 840,000 consensus estimate; despite the potential improvement, these numbers are still four times their...

VIPs A late 2019 analysis by Morgan Stanley found that 42% of BBB-rated credit should have been junk; still barely tapped, the Fed’s Corporate Credit Facilities have kept “fallen angels” solvent, protected investment grade ETFs, and frozen the IG credit cycle in the...

VIPs In a Fed survey taken in July, 22% of respondents were permanently displaced from their jobs and 67% displaced temporarily, versus 7% and 91% in April, respectively; lower-income workers have been been hurt the most, with 28% of those making under $40,000 being...

VIPs Coins in circulation are down 14% YoY, not materially different from their mid-June low of -15%; with the Dallas Fed’s Mobility Index near its pandemic high and gasoline demand at -5% YoY, its best since March, the shortage cannot be blamed solely on a lack of...

VIPs In the last 12 months, which includes pre-pandemic hiring, total losses in Private and Public Education Services were 895,000; against the backdrop of pre-pandemic teacher shortages and the Education sector’s normal immunity to cyclicality, the recent losses are...

VIPs Per August’s retail sales data, e-commerce enjoyed the largest gains from February-August and is up more than 20%; a lack of mobility drove the weakest performers, with mall-based clothing stores down 20%, while food services and gasoline have each seen 15%...

VIPs In Bank of America’s September Global Fund Manager Survey, an unprecedented consensus of 80% of investors saw long U.S. tech stocks as the most crowded trade; Google Trends searches for “tech bubble” are also at a 12-month high, confirming the unanimity of views...

VIPs Staples and discretionary goods have swapped roles, with paper product inflation up 9.9% YoY in August while men’s and women’s suits saw record deflation; recent retail layoffs and bankruptcies will directly impact how traders price TIPS and inflation...