Follow Your Nose

VIPs Conference Board’s consumer expectations index rose to a three-month high of 92.5 in January; the jump off November’s low of 84.3 solidified a triple-dip in expectations, though the double-dip in spending has yet to turn given the consensus expecting a December...

read more

I Must Be Full

VIPs Per the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing survey, Future Inventories fell from December’s near-record 19.8 to 4.0 in January; the 15.8 swing was driven by a 12.3-point drop in the share of firms planning to increase their future supplies, a sign acute pressures may be...

read more

Mourning a Baseball Legend

VIPs Per preliminary IHS Markit data, composite manufacturing output for the Euro Area, Japan, UK, and Australia remained in expansion in January but hit a 7-month low; meanwhile, US manufacturing output hit a 77-month high, diverging from the rest of the developed...

read more

Panem et Circenses

VIPs Per Bank of America, total card spending for stimulus recipients ran at a 12.7% YoY rate for the seven days ended January 16th compared to 2.8% YoY for non-recipients; while rates are still elevated for aid recipients, the indexed levels have converged as...

read more

A Dearth of Deadheads

VIPs Through December, total container volume through California’s three mega-ports rose at a 16.0% annual rate, the strongest since February 2018; imports drove this strength, advancing at a 23% YoY rate, marking a full quarter of prints north of 20% for the first...

read more

The Greatest Game Ever Played

VIPs The manufacturing workweek plus overtime was down just 0.4% YoY for durables and up 0.9% for non-durables in December; last month’s 1.6% gain in industrial production tripled Bloomberg’s 0.5% consensus and at a record 88%, the diffusion index saw broad-based...

read more

Stall Tactics

VIPs The -0.7% monthly drop in retail sales in December disappointed all but two of the 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg; this third straight monthly decline marks the longest losing streak since last spring’s first virus wave and points to a stall in consumer...

read more

The Great Compromise

VIPs Though Biden’s $1.9 trillion proposal is aggressive, the smallest majorities in the House and Senate since 1930 necessitate compromise; with the virus dictating life in the near-term, it is vital that funds for testing and vaccinations are not bogged down by more...

read more

Life is Flux

VIPs Though yesterday’s events put Italy’s governing coalition at risk of dissolving, Italy BTP yields did not rise, nor did their spread with German Bunds; in fact, Italy’s 10-year yield saw a 5 bp decline and the 112 bp spread over the 10-year Bund marked a 5-year...

read more

Belt Tightening

VIPs At -5.5 points, the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index for December was its third largest downside surprise on record; 21% of respondents listed ‘Taxes’ as their biggest concern, the largest percentage in three years, and with Senate control flipping this share...

read more