From 0-60 and Back

VIPs Rebounding from April’s low point of -68%, Durable Goods New Orders have risen by 28% in the last five months; auto manufacturing has breathed life into the broad factory sector, with Motor Vehicles and Parts New Orders up 14% in August after being down 37% in...

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The Un-gilded Lily

VIPs Not seasonally adjusted initial claims totaled 824,542 this week, 4.7 times higher than the comparable week in 2019; with all-in claims at 26,044,952, 17.5 times above last year’s levels, continued labor market weakness prevents the economy from reaching escape...

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Spielberg’s Imaginary Friend Goes to the U.N.

VIPs Modeling initial jobless claims using lagged Google search interest for “file unemployment” gives a prediction of 782,000 for this week, well below the 840,000 consensus estimate; despite the potential improvement, these numbers are still four times their...

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The Revillagigedo Island Foursome

VIPs A late 2019 analysis by Morgan Stanley found that 42% of BBB-rated credit should have been junk; still barely tapped, the Fed’s Corporate Credit Facilities have kept “fallen angels” solvent, protected investment grade ETFs, and frozen the IG credit cycle in the...

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Ben Franklin Was Not All About the Benjamins

VIPs In a Fed survey taken in July, 22% of respondents were permanently displaced from their jobs and 67% displaced temporarily, versus 7% and 91% in April, respectively; lower-income workers have been been hurt the most, with 28% of those making under $40,000 being...

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The 40-Quarter Bonanza

VIPs Coins in circulation are down 14% YoY, not materially different from their mid-June low of -15%; with the Dallas Fed’s Mobility Index near its pandemic high and gasoline demand at -5% YoY, its best since March, the shortage cannot be blamed solely on a lack of...

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Casa del Bambini

VIPs In the last 12 months, which includes pre-pandemic hiring, total losses in Private and Public Education Services were 895,000; against the backdrop of pre-pandemic teacher shortages and the Education sector’s normal immunity to cyclicality, the recent losses are...

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Tail Waggles the Dog

VIPs Per August’s retail sales data, e-commerce enjoyed the largest gains from February-August and is up more than 20%; a lack of mobility drove the weakest performers, with mall-based clothing stores down 20%, while food services and gasoline have each seen 15%...

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Jump on the Bandwagon

VIPs In Bank of America’s September Global Fund Manager Survey, an unprecedented consensus of 80% of investors saw long U.S. tech stocks as the most crowded trade; Google Trends searches for “tech bubble” are also at a 12-month high, confirming the unanimity of views...

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Casual Every Day

VIPs Staples and discretionary goods have swapped roles, with paper product inflation up 9.9% YoY in August while men’s and women’s suits saw record deflation; recent retail layoffs and bankruptcies will directly impact how traders price TIPS and inflation...

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