Labor + Stagflation Risks > Inflation Risks

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Saturday Intelligence Briefing — August 30, 2025

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Growth and Labor Slack Support Fed Easing

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Slack is Not Flying Under the Radar

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Rare and Well Done

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House and Rent Price Declines Support Higher Rate Volatility

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Unemployment Risks Defy a Mild Consensus

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Labor Risks Not a Long Shot

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Labor Downside Outmuscling Upside Risks to Inflation

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85ºC Makes a Good Cup of Espresso

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