Is there a task force for idiocy? We’ve been watching Truflation closely and hope Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is too. Today, the headline is 2.08% year-over-year (YoY), well off its recent February’s low of 1.25%. Meanwhile, Truflation’s core reading is 1.31% YoY, a smidge off its six-month low of 1.27%. To state the obvious about a real-time metric that tracks millions of prices daily, price destruction in the discretionary space is alive and well – the more Americans spend on gasoline, the less they have to spend on everything else. One consumer-facing company after another has conveyed this reality to investors, who clearly have another narrative they are trading.

And then there’s the wisdom of crowds, passive investors especially, for which no task force exists to our knowledge. Since 2021, the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (ticker TIP, inverted light blue line) has accurately foretold Fed policy moves (red line). TIP topped in November 2021, four months before the inaugural March 2022 hike of the 2022-23 tightening cycle. Following the October 2023 bottom, TIP put in an interim – and higher – low in April 2024. The five-month rally that followed provided five months of lead time before the September 2024 rate cut. With a triple top established in October 2025/February 2026/April 2026, the sustained move lower since the third top begs the question: “Will history repeat itself?” At present, pricing for a July hike (38%) says ‘no’, but pricing for September (72%) is much closer to the affirmative – and another five-month heads up.